Good morning!
Grain futures mixed overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, May corn was up 2 1/2 5 cents. May soybeans were 3 1/2 cents lower. May soybean meal was up $0.40. May bean oil was 38 points lower. May SRW wheat was up 2 1/2 cents and May HRW wheat was 3 1/2 cents higher. So far this week grain futures markets are mostly tracking the daily price movements in the crude oil futures market. Such will likely continue to be the case for the near term. The key outside markets today see Nymex WTI crude oil prices higher and trading around $90.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher early today. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.4 percent.
Latest on the war in Iran…
-- Iran strikes Gulf countries as Monday’s de-escalation optimism fades
-- Trump delays energy strikes on Iran, sets five-day deadline for Iran talks
--Crue oil edges back higher as de-escalation hopes fade
--Iran continued attacks on U.S. bases in Gulf; Israel and Tehran trade fire
--Kuwait says 7 power lines down due to falling debris from missile, drone attacks
--Pakistan making push to mediate talks to end the war, held discussions with Trump
--Iran maintains there have been no negotiations with U.S.
--U.S. marines heading for the Middle East
--Saudi Arabia, UAE hardened their stances against Iran; Saudis may strike Iran
--Crude oil from U.S. strategic reserve started flowing Friday, said Energy Department
--Chinese-Owned oil tanker transits Strait of Hormuz along Iranian coastal route
Another record-breaking heatwave setting up… Temperatures will be on an upward trend across the intermountain West and central U.S. over the next couple of days as another record-breaking heat wave develops, said the National Weather Service today. A warm front will bring well-above-average temperatures to the High Plains today, to the Plains on Wednesday, and to the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Heat is expected to peak in intensity on Wednesday as high temperatures reach 25-35 degrees above average for this time of year. Numerous temperature records are expected to be tied or broken. Then a strong cold front is expected to bring some relief from the heat mid-to-late this week as it makes its way south across the nation. The cold front will raise precipitation chances, including the potential for snow and/or mixed precipitation across the northern tier and strong to severe thunderstorms from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley. Much colder air will arrive on the back side of the front, with temperatures expected to fall to 10-15 degrees below average.
Highlights of Pro Farmer South America crop consultant’s weekly crop report… Our South America crop consultant Michael Cordonnier this week reports: “As we approach the 2026 planting season in the U.S., it is estimated that U.S. farmers will plant 93.5 million acres of corn and 86 million acres of soybeans.”In 2025, U.S. farmers planted 98.8 million acres of corn and 81.2 million acres of soybeans.USDA will release its Prospective Planting report on March 31. “The 2026 U.S. crop acreage estimates have been impacted by the conflict in the Middle East and the resulting increased cost of fertilizers.The most significant impact has been on nitrogen fertilizer which is essential for corn production.” Meantime, Cordonnier also reported his 2025/26 Brazil soybean production estimate was left unchanged this week at 178.0 million tons with a neutral bias. Brazilian soybeans were 68% harvested as of late last week compared to 80% last year according to AgRural. Cordonnier’s 2025/26 Brazil corn estimate was lowered 1.0 million tons this week to 132.0 million with a neutral-to-lower bias. Safrinha corn in Brazil was 97% planted as of late last week compared to 100% last year according to AgRural.His 2025/26 Argentina soybean estimate was left unchanged this week at 47.0 million tons with a neutral bias. Cordonnier’s 2025/26 Argentina corn estimate was left unchanged this week at 53.0 million tons with a neutral bias. Corn was 13.0% harvested as of late last week, which represents an advance of 3.6% for the week.
Australian farmers seen planting less wheat… “Wheat farmers in Australia — one of the world’s biggest agricultural exporters — are paring back plantings as concerns over fertilizer supplies mount, the latest sign of how the war in Iran is disrupting operations on farms around the world,” Bloomberg reported today. “Wheat is a nitrogen-intensive crop, with fertilizer use among the key factors for yields. With exports through the Strait of Hormuz largely stalled, crop nutrients worldwide are quickly becoming pricier and harder to find. That comes on top of weak wheat prices and ample global supply, which were frustrating farmers before the conflict began. Australia’s winter plantings are set to begin within weeks, and farmers are weighing sowing less of the grain and more oilseeds and pulses in hopes of better returns,” said the report. “Basically they will just cut wheat and replace for everything else,” including lentils, canola and barley, said Vitor Pistoia, a senior grains and oilseeds analyst at Rabobank, in the report.
Energy crunch also hitting South African farmers hard… Farmers in South Africa are facing surging diesel prices and tightening supplies due to the Middle East conflict, threatening production in the country’s wheat-growing industry, Bloomberg says. “The combined effects of rising diesel and fertilizer prices present a significant cost shock to producers, with fuel and fertilizer accounting for about half of grain farmers’ production costs.” Wheat farmers may cut plantings if they aren’t confident that prices for their produce will rise sufficiently to compensate for higher costs, which could have a knock-on effect on inflation in the country. “First to be affected will be sunflower and soybean farmers, who will need diesel to harvest by the end of this month. Wheat, barley and canola farmers will start planting in April and corn farmers in Africa’s biggest exporter of the staple will begin harvesting in late May,” said Bloomberg.
Euro zone economy may be slipping into stagflation… “Private-sector activity in the Euro area rose at the slowest pace since last May as the Iran war stokes inflation while endangering a nascent economic recovery,” Bloomberg reported today. The Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index compiled by S&P Global dropped to 50.5 in March from 51.9 the previous month, though held above the 50.0 threshold separating growth from contraction. Analysts had predicted a dip to 51. Germany, the region’s biggest economy, saw its composite reading slip more than anticipated while also staying above 50. “The flash Eurozone PMI is ringing stagflation alarm bells as the war in the Middle East drives prices sharply higher while stifling growth,” Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said Tuesday in a statement and as reported by Bloomberg.
Malaysian palm oil futures weaker… Malaysian palm oil futures slipped to around MYR 4,580 per MT on Tuesday, reversing gains from the prior session as trading resumed after the Eid holiday, rattled by weaker edible oils on the Dalian market. Sentiment also turned cautious, with global edible oil markets expected to remain volatile. While energy disruptions in the Middle East have lifted expectations for biodiesel demand, buying interest from key importers has been uneven, clouding the broader outlook. Still, losses were capped by a weaker ringgit and expectations that top producer Indonesia may raise its palm oil export taxes in April. Meanwhile, recent data highlighted a pickup in export demand, with cargo surveyors estimating March 1–15 shipments surged 43.5%–56.9% month-on-month, supported by festive buying. In India, the world’s largest consumer, palm oil imports rose 11% in February to a six-month high, aided by its price discount versus rival oils.
Cattle futures markets supported by firmer cash prices… April live cattle futures on Monday rose $1.25 to $235.30. March feeder cattle gained $1.975 to $348.35. The cattle futures markets early on Monday saw some sideways pausing action amid volatile outside markets that are keeping both the cattle market bulls and bears tentative. However, late-session gains in cattle futures came as higher cash cattle trade was reported for last week and amid the increased risk appetite in the general marketplace Monday amid solid gains in the U.S. stock indexes and a big drop in crude oil prices. USDA Monday at midday reported cash cattle trading last week averaged $235.08—up $0.25 from the week prior average of $234.83. In the Plains states, the extreme heat of the weekend and that expected again during mid-week this week was and will be stressful to livestock.
Lean hog futures see more technical selling pressure… April lean hog futures on Monday fell $0.475 to $90.80 and hit a nine-week low. Hog futures saw more technical selling pressure amid a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The rally in the cash hog market has also stalled out, which is limiting buying interest in futures. The latest CME lean hog index is down 9 cents at $91.95. Today’s projected cash index price is down another 18 cents at $91.77. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Monday was $69.09.