Good morning!
Grain futures prices firmer overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, July corn was up 2 cents. July soybeans were 1 1/4 cents up. July soybean meal was up $1.60 and July bean oil was 24 points lower. July SRW wheat was up 6 cents. July HRW was 8 3/4 cents higher. Wednesday was an especially disappointing trading session for the soybean bulls. It started out promising in the overnight session as July beans hit a five-week high and there was the potential for a bullish upside price breakout from a choppy and sideways trading range. However, as the day session progressed Wednesday the bulls lost steam, with prices winding up closing lower and near the daily low. The slumping meal futures market is again weighing on beans. It’s apparent the meal market will have to show a decent turnaround for the soybean market to perform better on the upside. Meanwhile, corn is showing promise as July futures are trending up. Winter wheat futures prices are also in near-term uptrends. However, July HRW finds stiff overhead chart resistance that bulls have yet to pierce on the upside. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices higher and trading around $94.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently at 4.32 percent.
Latest on the war in the Middle East…
--U.S. intercepts Iran oil supertankers as Tehran keeps Strait of Hormuz shut
--U.S. says it awaits Iran response on talks as Hormuz tensions rise
--Gold falls as U.S.-Iran Hormuz standoff heightens inflation risk
The U.S. military said it intercepted two Iranian oil supertankers that tried to evade its blockade as Washington continues to stymie the Islamic Republic’s shipping and Tehran threatens vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Bloomberg said the very large crude carriers Hedy and Hero II are anchored at Chabahar, an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman, after being intercepted earlier this week, U.S. Central Command said Wednesday on X. “The enforcement actions suggest a tiny amount of petroleum is now reaching global markets through the world’s most important oil channel. That’s because — up until the American blockade started — Iran had been the only nation sending meaningful amounts through it during the war. On Wednesday, Tehran reminded the world of its ability to scare off seafarers and commercial shipping attempting to sail through the strait, attacking at least three vessels and diverting two of them into its waters,” said the report.
Severe storms possible today across much of the Plains, Midwest… The National Weather Service today said a potent the Plains/Midwest today will see widespread, impactful weather, including severe thunderstorms, flash flooding, wildfires and heavy snow. Widespread thunderstorms will stretch from the upper Midwest southwest through the central/southern Plains today. The threat exists for severe weather, including damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes. The weather system will continue eastward Friday, bringing thunderstorms into the Great Lakes region southwest through the Mississippi Valley. Some snow may also mix in for portions of the northern High Plains, though accumulations should generally remain light. There is some potential for locally impactful amounts for northeast Montana along the Canadian border where a stronger snow band may materialize Very strong, gusty winds will blow across portions of the northern Plains. Warm, dry conditions with these gusty winds across the central and southern High Plains have prompted another critical risk of fire weather.
China says it will secure sufficient fertilizer supplies for planting… China’s agriculture ministry said it will secure sufficient fertilizer supplies and stabilize prices, as the Iran war disrupts global markets for key crop nutrients, according to a Bloomberg report. The country has ample fertilizer for spring planting, the country’s main crop-sowing season, officials said at a briefing in Beijing today. While domestic prices have edged up, they’re still well below international levels, they said. Although Chinese prices have risen much less sharply than global benchmarks, the Zhengzhou futures market for urea — the most widely used nitrogen-based fertilizer — hit its highest level since August 2024 in recent days. “The ministry’s comments highlight an urgent need to prioritize fertilizer supplies after the conflict in the Middle East sent global prices surging. Farmers around the world depend on the region for shipments and have been forced to scramble for alternative supplies at much higher prices. China — a swing supplier to the global market in recent years — has tightened controls on exports to protect domestic supply,” said the Bloomberg report.
USDA annual cattle slaughter summary… The agency’s annual cattle slaughter summary report was released Wednesday afternoon, providing finalized data for meat production in 2025. In addition to the regular monthly reports, the annual provides insight on where meat production is concentrated as well as the number of plants operating as of January 1, 2026. Red meat production was down 2% from 2024 to 53.8 billion pounds. Beef production came in at 26.1 billion pounds, down 4% from 2024, while pork production was up 1% to 27.6 billion pounds. The numbers were little changed from the preliminary end of year estimates released in late January that showed 53.74 billion pounds of red meat production for 2025. The report said 49.4% of commercial U.S. red meat production was focused in four states: Iowa (16.6%), Nebraska (14.4%) , Kansas (10.4%), and Texas (8.0%). The total number of federally inspected plants increased from 1,089 on January 1, 2025 to 1,127 on January 1, 2026. There was a slight decrease in non-federally inspected plants from 1,827 to 1,796. In total, the number of plants increased by 7 to 2,923 in the U.S. Notably, Texas led states with the most new plants under federal inspections, up 9, to78.
Greenback still dominates the currency pack... The conflict in the Middle East is solidifying the U.S. dollar’s dominant role in global trade, according to one measure of activity in the interbank foreign-exchange markets, said a Bloomberg report. The U.S. currency’s portion of international transactions rose to a record 51.1% in March, up from 49.2% a month earlier, according to the latest data compiled by global financial messaging service Swift, or the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication. That’s the highest share since 2023 when the Belgium-headquartered consortium revised how it collects the transaction data. Large global banks use Swift to communicate with each other and facilitate interbank currency deals. The world’s primary reserve currency was followed by the Euro, which carried about a 21% share via Swift, then the pound, yen, Chinese yuan and Canadian dollar. “Dollar weakness seen last year has not translated into any clear decline in the dollar’s role as a reserve or base currency for capital markets,” a JPMorgan research team led by Joyce Chang said.
Eurozone private sector contracts the most in 17 months, but manufacturing upbeat… The eurozone composite purchasing managers index (PMI) dropped to 48.6 in April, missing expectations of 50.2 and marking the sharpest contraction since November of 2024. Services contracted sharply as the U.S.-Iran war’s energy cost surge squeezed demand, while manufacturing expanded at slightly faster pace despite supply challenges. Meantime, the eurozone’s manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.2 in April 2026 from 51.6 in March, surpassing expectations of 50.8 and marking the strongest improvement in business conditions since May of 2022. Production growth hit its fastest pace since August 2025, while new orders expanded at the quickest rate in four years, boosted by the first rise in export demand since February 2022.
Malaysian palm oil futures prices dip… Malaysian palm oil futures fell slightly, hovering below MYR 4,620 as traders booked profits after a near two-week high in recent days. Sentiment weakened on softer edible oils in Dalian and sluggish exports, with cargo surveyors noting April 1–20 shipments down about 25.6%–25.8% from March amid the absence of festive demand. In the main consumer China, imports of key commodities, particularly soybeans, may fall this year, clouding the broader edible oil outlook. Still, palm oil is up around 3.7% so far this week, rebounding from losses in the prior two periods, lifted by a weaker ringgit and firmer crude prices due to Middle East shipping disruptions. Hopes of stronger demand from top buyer India also grew after March shipments fell 19% mom. Meantime, Malaysia is moving toward higher biodiesel blends, targeting B15 from the current B10. The policy could absorb 1–1-1/2 million MT annually, tightening supply as Kuala Lumpur follows Jakarta in expanding mandates to curb fuel imports.
Cattle futures prices fall to three-week lows… June live cattle on Wednesday fell $0.475 to $243.075. May feeder cattle lost $0.125 to $358.425. Both markets hit three-week lows. The cattle futures markets saw mild follow-through technical selling pressure from recent losses that have produced significant near-term chart damage to suggest market tops are in place. It was especially disappointing price action for cattle futures market bulls Wednesday because there was keener risk appetite in the general marketplace at mid-week. USDA at midday Wednesday reported very light cash cattle trading taking place so far this week, with steers averaging $246.33 and heifers $246.00. Last week’s average cash cattle trade was $248.02. Cattle futures markets have seen price uptrends on the daily bar charts stall out. There are now chart clues to begin to suggest market tops are in place.
Lean hog futures prices dip Wednesday… June lean hogs on Wednesday fell $0.575 to $102.625. The hog futures market saw a corrective pullback from good gains posted Tuesday. Gains in hog futures were limited by selling pressure in the cattle futures. The latest CME lean hog index is up 14 cents at $90.51. Today’s projected cash index price is up 54 cents at $91.05. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Wednesday was $70.75. June lean hog futures bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart.