Good morning!
Grains see modest overnight bounce… As of 6 a.m. CT, December corn was up 1 cent. November soybeans gained 4 cents, while December soybean meal dropped $1.90 and December soybean oil gained 51 points. December soft red winter wheat gained 4 ¼ cents, while December hard red winter wheat was up 4 ½ cents. Grains were attempting a bounce after hitting multi-week lows on Monday, with corn and soybeans feeling pressure from harvest pressure as producers take advantage of a favorable weather outlook across much of the Midwest.
In outside markets, crude oil futures were pushing back to the upside, providing some support for grain futures, after setting back on Monday as traders responded to President Donald Trump’s decision to waive new sanctions on Russia. Nymex December WTI crude was up 2.2% to trade at $100.71 a barrel, while global benchmark Brent crude traded at a five-month high. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index was down 0.1%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was at 5.124%.
Trump announces $8B fuel relief plan… President Donald Trump, on the midterm campaign trail in Kansas, said USDA would provide $8 billion in relief to farmers squeezed by soaring diesel prices. In a news release, USDA said it will tap into Commodity Credit Corporation funds for the Harvest Fuel Relief Program. USDA said that, similar to the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program, the Harvest Fuel Relief (HFR) program will provide proportional support to producers using a uniform formula to cover a portion of modeled losses during the 2026 crop year. This national loss average will be based on FSA reported planted acres, Economic Research Service cost of production estimates, and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates yields and prices. USDA said commodity-specific payment rates for Title I commodities will be released in November, with payment methodology for other eligible commodities to be announced at a later date. USDA said crop insurance linkage won’t be required for participation in the HFR program, but that it strongly urges producers to take advantage of the enhanced risk management tools included in the Working Families Tax Cuts Act to protect against price risk and volatility in the future.
Cordonnier lifts Brazil soy, corn estimates… Pro Farmer crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his 2026-27 Brazil soybean estimate by 2 million tons to 182 MT, with a neutral bias, reflecting an “OK start” to planting and slightly larger soybean acreage than anticipated. Cordonnier said higher soybean prices over the last few months have encouraged an increase in plantings. Conab has soybean acreage increasing 1.4% to 49.3 million hectares, while USDA rose acreage 3% from last year to 50.0 million hectares. Cordonnier bumped up his planting estimate to 49.3 million hectares from 49.2 million for now. Conab estimates the 2026-27 Brazil soybean crop at 181.6 MT with USDA at 186.0 MT.
Cordonnier also raised his 2026-27 Brazil corn production estimate by 2 MT to 140 MT with a neutral bias, reflecting increased corn acreage and a good start to the first corn crop in southern Brazil. The first crop accounts for only around a quarter of total Brazilian production, so final output will depend on weather during the safrinha, or second crop, growing season, he noted. The first crop was 48% planted as of late last week compared to 51% last year, up 4% for the week. Conab estimates 2026-27 Brazil corn production at 148.0 MT, while the USDA is estimating the crop at 139.0 MT.
Harvest plays catchup… The soybean harvest nearly caught up with the five-year average last week, while corn harvest still lags behind despite a significant leap, USDA’s weekly crop conditions and progress data showed Monday.
- Corn was rated 56% good or excellent as of Sunday, USDA said, unchanged from the previous week and matching analyst expectations. Harvest was 44% complete, up from 33% a week earlier and a percentage point behind the average guess and lagging behind the five-year average of 52%. The Pro Farmer Crop Conditions Index (0 to 500 scale, 500 equals perfect) rose by a marginal 1.08 points.
- The soybean crop was 64% harvested, up from 46% last week, 2 points better than the average estimate and a point behind the five-year average of 65%. With more than 50% of the crop harvested, USDA has discontinued weekly condition ratings for soybeans.
- USDA said the winter wheat crop was 63% planted, up from 51% a week ago and just below the average guess of 63%. The five-year average for this time of year is 69%.
Benign weather outlook… The National Weather Service said relatively benign weather is expected to prevail over much of the U.S. through the first half of the week. A moist, and very anomalous, southerly flow poses excessive rainfall concerns in parts of the Southwest before the heavy rain threat shifts eastward into the Plains heading into the weekend. The NWS said a building bridge in the central U.S. will promote above average temperatures through the weekend.
U.S.-China negotiators under the gun… Negotiators for the U.S. and China are racing to secure concrete investment deals ahead of a meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at next month’s Shenzhen APEC summit, the South China Morning Post reported. Trump and Xi agreed to just a two-month extension of a trade truce until January, which had disappointed Beijing but was viewed as an opportunity for China to strengthen its bargaining position on commitment purchases, particularly for Boeing aircraft, the report said. Washington, meanwhile, saw the short-term window as a chance to pressure Beijing into increasing purchases of U.S. agricultural goods and expanding rare-earth flows. Both sides are negotiating an investment board structure and short-term trade extensions but significant gaps remain, the report said, raising doubts about whether concrete deals will be completed before the summit.
Alberta rejects Canada secession… Alberta residents rejected the idea of separating from Canada in a Monday referendum, Bloomberg reported, delivering a victory to Prime Minister Mark Carney. The report said around 76% voted in favor of remaining in Canada. The other option on the ballot was to support holding a binding referendum on independence.
China’s September soybean imports… China, the world’s largest soybean buyer, brought in 11.88 million MT of soybeans in September, down 7.7% from the same month last year, Reuters reported. China imported 360,878 metric tons of U.S. soybeans in September, up from zero a year earlier. In the January-September period, soybean imports from the U.S. fell 34% from a year earlier to 11.06 million tons, while shipments from Brazil rose 3.4% to 65.84 million tons, the report said.
France corn output seen at 50-year low… A farmers group sees French grain maize, or corn, output on track to fall by nearly half this year to 7.0 million metric tons, after a decline in plantings and a devastating summer drought that devastated crops, Reuters reported. AGPM said the crop would be the smallest since 1976. “The worst has happened,” AGPM Chairman Franck Laborde said.
Live cattle rally pauses… December live cattle fell $0.325 to close at $228.025. November feeder cattle rose $2.025 to $343.925, hitting a three-month high. Live cattle saw mild profit taking, while technically inspired buying took feeders to a new high. Solidly higher cash trading last week kept a floor under live cattle. USDA said cash cattle trade last week averaged $224.19, up $4.05 from the previous week. Boxed beef prices were mixed Monday.
Hog futures continue to struggle… December lean hog futures fell $0.575 Monday to close at $66.35, not far above last week’s contract low. Technical selling resumed, while cash fundamentals continued to trend lower. Tuesday’s projected CME index is down $0.79 at $73.40. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price was $70.68, while Monday’s noon pork report showed cutout value down $1.35 at $79.20, led by a fall in bellies.