Good morning!
Grain markets weaker overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn futures were down 1 3/4 cents, November soybeans down 2 1/4 cents and winter wheat futures were near steady. Grain futures are looking heavy to start the trading week. Corn, soybeans and winter wheat futures are all in price downtrends on the daily bar charts and are teetering at or near chart support at their recent lows. If December corn slips below technical support at its contract low of $4.07 1/2, the speculative corn bears would be further energized to press the market harder to the downside into the U.S. harvest. And if corn continues its slide, soybeans and wheat will likely do the same. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are down and trading around $66.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.241 percent.
Trump fires head of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics… President Trump late Friday fired the head of the agency that produces the monthly jobs figures after the Friday morning jobs report showed hiring slowed in July and was much weaker in May and June than previously reported. Trump, in a post on his social media platform, alleged the jobs figures were manipulated for political reasons and said that Erika McEntarfer, the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, who was appointed by former President Joe Biden, should be fired. “I have directed my team to fire this Biden political appointee, immediately,” Trump said on Truth Social. The U.S. stock market sold off Friday following the dour U.S. jobs data, which changed the trajectory of the economic discussion to one of a Fed rate cut now being likely at the September FOMC meeting. Trump said he will announce a new Federal Reserve governor and a new BLS jobs data statistician in the coming days.
Most of U.S. Midwest to see drier weather this week but not threatening… World Weather Inc. reported late Sunday the central U.S. Midwest from eastern Kansas through Missouri and Illinois to Michigan and parts of Ohio will experience net drying during the coming week. U.S. rainfall in the coming week will be greatest in the Dakotas, Minnesota, western Wisconsin, northwestern Iowa and Nebraska as well as in portions of southern Indiana and Kentucky. Rainfall amounts will range from 0.75 to more than 2 inches, with some areas in the Dakotas and western Minnesota getting more than 3 inches. The U.S. Delta and western Tennessee River Basin will also be drier than usual during the next seven days. The U.S. central and southwestern Plains will experience some scattered thunderstorms during the next 10 days, with resulting rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in portions of Kansas and Oklahoma as well as Nebraska. Much of Texas will be drier than usual during the next 10 days, although completely dry weather is not likely. Most areas will experience net drying, including West Texas. Temperatures in key U.S. and Canada Prairies crop areas will be close to normal during the next two weeks, said World Weather.
OPEC raises its crude oil production… Nymex crude oil futures were weaker overnight after the OPEC-plus decision to raise its collective output. OPEC confirmed a widely expected production increase of 547,000 barrels per day starting in September. While the move had been anticipated, it reinforced expectations global oil supplies may outpace oil demand later this year. Uncertainty remains whether OPEC will pause further output increases.
China to hold economic plenum in October… Reports say China will hold its major economic policy meeting in October, likely focusing on the next five-year plan, according to China’s Xinhua News. The announcement follows a recent politburo meeting where leaders pledged to address mounting economic risks, including deflation, industrial overcapacity, and a prolonged property slump. China’s producer prices fell for the 33rd consecutive month in June. China’s politburo has emphasized curbing “disorderly competition” and advancing capacity cuts in key sectors. China also plans to boost domestic demand and promote innovation in globally competitive industries.
USDA soybean crush down in June from May; ethanol use up… USDA Friday afternoon reported the June 2025 U.S. soybean crush totaled 197.137 million bushels. The crush was down 6.6 million bushels from 203.704 million bushels in May2025 but up 13.645 million from 183.493 million in June 2024. The crush just above the trade average forecasts of 196.9 million bushels from a Bloomberg poll. The June crush yield was 47.57 pounds, below 47.74 in May 2025 but above 47.20 pounds in June 2024. U.S. soyoil stocks totaled 1.895 billion pounds at the end of June. The trade average was 1.867 billion from Bloomberg. Stocks were up from 1.875 billion in May 2025 but down from 2.125 billion in June 2024. Our preliminary estimate for June soyoil use is 2.364 billion pounds, down from 2.367 billion year-on-year (YOY).Implied domestic use totaled 2.254 billion and was above 2.231 billion in June 2024. Our export forecast of 110 million pounds is down modestly YOY. The monthly soybean oil yield was 11.93 pounds, up from 11.89 a year ago and from May at 11.86. The five-year average for June is 11.79 pounds. Meantime, USDA Friday reported the corn for ethanol use for June 2025 at 447.966 million bushels versus the trade average at 454.3 million, just below our estimate of 449.0 million. That compares to an adjusted 444.420 million in May 2025 and 446.136 million in June 2024. The per day crush for ethanol averaged 14.9 million bushels and was up from 14.5 million in May. The data point to a per bushel yield of 3.03 gallons, steady from 3.03 in May.
Palm oil futures down to start trading week… Malaysian palm oil futures prices declined around 1% to below MYR 4,190 per MT, reversing gains from Friday amid weakness in rival Dalian oils. Prices were near a three-week low on ideas of seasonally higher output. Reuters estimated palm oil inventories rose for a fifth straight month in July to their highest level in nearly two years, due to strong production and revised domestic consumption data.
Cattle futures bulls still strong… The live and feeder cattle futures bulls Friday were able to claw back some of last Thursday’s strong losses. Key will be if the cattle bulls can show some follow-through price strength early next week. USDA Friday reported active cash cattle trading, with steers averaging $242.69 and heifers averaging $242.07. Both levels were well above the average price fetched the prior week. USDA will release its official cash cattle trading price for last week near midday today. The outdoor grilling season is now past its peak, and with it seasonal cattle slaughter levels tend to start rising. With cattle futures prices still not that far below their recent record highs and with beef packers cutting in the red, the packers are going to be reluctant to raise their bids for cash cattle in such conditions.
Lean hog futures bulls fading a bit… The lean hog futures bulls last week lost the technical momentum they spent the last two weeks of July building. That means the speculative, chart-based sellers have been emboldened and may start to play their cards in stronger fashion this week. One key for price direction in the hog futures market this week will be how the cattle futures markets fare. The latest CME lean hog index is down 14 cents to $110.37, ending a string of recent gains. Monday’s projected index price is down 11 cents to $110.26 (for July 31).
Today’s reports—Monday
--10:00 am Weekly USDA export inspections
--3:00 pm Crop Progress