Good morning!
Grain prices mixed to firmer overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was down 1/4 cent, November soybeans up 1 cent and December winter wheat futures markets were 1/4 to 1 cent lower. Corn market bulls continue to show resilience on price setbacks. Soybean market bulls are somewhat encouraged that meal futures prices appear to have stabilized following recent selling pressure. Winter wheat futures markets may also be stabilizing after December HRW prices on Monday showed decent gains. Key for the wheat markets will be for the bulls to show follow-through buying strength today or Wednesday, to begin to suggest market bottoms are in place. Grain traders’ focus this week is on Friday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are modestly higher and trading around $62.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.07 percent.
Unstable weather coming to the Midwest… The National Weather Service today said a front extending from the upper Midwest across the Northern Plains into the Northern Rockies will become quasi-stationary from the middle Mississippi Valley to the northern Rockies by Thursday. Moisture flowing northward over the Plains will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the upper Great Lakes, upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, and over the central Plains through this evening. Further, today the moisture and upper-level energy will produce showers and strong to severe thunderstorms over parts of the central/southern High Plains.
Weekly crop progress: corn, bean conditions decline slightly… USDA Monday afternoon reported the condition of the U.S. corn crop declined 1%, to 68% rated good/excellent.Six states indicated the corn condition improved last week, 10 indicated the corn condition declined and 2 were unchanged.Most of the improvements were generally found in the northwestern and southern locations while most of the declines were found in the central locations.The corn crop is 25% mature and 4% harvested as of last Sunday. “Given the current forecast, there should not be any significant delays for the early corn harvest,” said Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier. The condition of the U.S. soybean crop declined 1%, to 64% rated good/excellent.Five states indicated the soybean condition improved last week, 11 indicated the soybean condition declined and 2 were unchanged.Most of the improvements were found in the western and southern locations while most of the declines were found in the central locations.“Light frosts in some of the northern locations may have been partially responsible for the lower condition rating for soybeans,” said Cordonnier. USDA said 5% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was planted and 85% of the spring wheat crop had been harvested as of Sunday. The U.S. cotton crop was reported in 54% good to excellent condition, 35% fair and 11% poor to very poor condition.
European stocks waver following ouster of France’s prime minister… European stocks struggled for direction today as investors digested France’s battle to repair its finances. The Stoxx 600 erased early gains as French President Emmanuel Macron moved to appoint a new prime minister within days, following the ouster of Prime Minister Francois Bayrou, which was expected by the marketplace. French assets have come under pressure amid continued uncertainty as Macron seeks a premier capable of steering a budget through a deeply fractured National Assembly. The continued lack of common ground is weighing on sentiment, driving up the country’s risk premium.
U.S. ag trade deficit widens in July… The U.S. agricultural trade deficit widened further in July, with agricultural exports lagging imports by $4.97 billion, according to data released Monday by USDA. The ag sector’s deficit reached a record $33.6 billion for the first seven months of the year, 9% wider than a year earlier. The U.S. imported more than $132 billion in agricultural goods in the first seven months of 2025, while the sector’s exports slid 1.3% to $98.8 billion. The report highlights the challenge facing President Trump as he vows to reverse the trend. The widening farm trade gap this year has been mostly driven by a jump in imports.
Slumping lumber futures prices flashing warning signal… Lumber futures prices have dropped 24% the past month, mainly due to trade uncertainties and a weakening U.S. housing market. Veteran lumber market watchers know that lumber futures prices can be very volatile and are highly cyclical. Still, two of North America’s biggest lumber suppliers said last week they would curtail lumber production, according to a Wall Street Journal report. Housing market analysts say lumber prices are a good indicator of the direction of the housing market and overall U.S. economic activity. Lumber industry execs are hoping expected lower U.S. interest rates this fall will spur better demand for construction materials, including lumber.
Chinese yuan hits 10-month high against U.S. dollar… The offshore Chinese yuan held its recent advance at around 7.12 per dollar Tuesday, on three straight sessions of gains and supported by weakness in the U.S. dollar. The greenback continues to struggle as mounting concerns over a cooling U.S. labor market fueled expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts as soon as next week. Traders are now pricing in an 89% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at next week’s FOMC meeting, with some even thinking a larger 50-basis-point reduction is possible. The weaker greenback against the Chinese yuan could help spur some better demand for U.S. ag products from China in the coming months.
Perdue Farms laying off workers in Indiana… Shifting consumer tastes and a shrinking turkey flock are prompting Perdue Farms Inc. to lay off nearly 300 workers at a processing facility in Washington, Indiana, Bloomberg reports. Turkey production last year in the U.S. fell to a three-decade low, according to USDA. Farmers are struggling against the worst-ever avian influenza outbreak, rising costs due to inflation and an increasing shift toward beef, pork or chicken as the holiday centerpiece of holiday meals, said the report. “Changes in consumer demand, decreasing turkey flocks, and how we produce and supply our products have impacted the Washington operations in recent years, making the change to one production shift necessary to achieve operational efficiencies,” Perdue said in an emailed statement, according to Bloomberg.
Malaysian palm oil futures trade near steady… Malaysian palm oil futures prices were little changed Tuesday, hovering around MYR 4,485 per MT after two sessions of gains, as weakness in rival vegetable oils on Chicago exchanges weighed on sentiment. Traders remained cautious ahead of monthly data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board in the coming days, with Reuters projecting inventories to climb for a sixth consecutive month in August as production continued to outpace exports despite signs of demand recovery. On the supportive side, cargo surveyors estimated palm oil August shipments rose 10% to 15% from July levels.
Live cattle futures see profit taking, feeders firmer Monday… The live cattle futures market Monday saw some buying support in early trading amid overall bullish cash cattle and beef market fundamentals. However, some profit-taking selling interest occurred in late trading to knock live and feeder cattle futures down from their daily highs. USDA Monday reported last week’s cash cattle trade averaged $242.55, which compares to $243.60 the week prior.
Routine downside price correction in lean hog futures Monday… The lean hog futures market Monday saw routine profit-taking pressure after prices last Friday hit a nine-week high. The latest CME lean hog index is down a nickel to $105.92 as of Sept. 4. Tuesday’s projected cash hog index is down a penny to $105.91. Monday’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote is $105.14.