Good morning!
Grain prices narrowly mixed overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was down 1 cent, November soybeans down 1/2 cent and December winter wheat futures markets were steady to a penny up. After being under selling pressure much of the trading session Tuesday, corn prices pushed steadily up as the day wore on and hit a six-week high just before the close. Corn’s price action Tuesday was impressive and shows the bulls now have resilience. Soybeans are being pulled down this week by a deteriorating meal futures market. November beans have seen a price uptrend on the daily chart stall out and need to see the meal market start to perform better to revive the uptrend in beans. Winter wheat markets are still trending down, are not far above their recent contract lows, and need the help of rallies in corn and soybeans to stop the bleeding in wheat. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $64.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.289 percent.
The big chill coming to Midwest soon… The National Weather Service today reports a strong cold front will continue to sweep to the south and east across the Great Lakes, upper Midwest, and the central Plains today, ushering in a much cooler airmass in its wake. Behind the front, high temperatures will be roughly 15 to 25 degrees below early September averages, topping out only in the 40s across far northern Minnesota, and into the 50s and 60s for the rest of the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes regions. In addition to bringing unseasonably chilly temps into the region, the cold front will also kick off fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms as it moves through, with the potential for storms to become strong to severe across portions of the central Plains this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and very large hail are the primary concerns with these storms, though an isolated tornado isn’t ruled out. Showers and storms will spread eastward along the cold front into the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. Building warmth and increasing humidity ahead of the front will support another risk of strong to marginally severe storms by Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, yet another strong cold front is forecast to push into the northern/central Plains and upper Midwest Thursday into Friday, ushering in a reinforcing blast of unseasonably cool air across the region, said the NWS.
USDA crop progress data from Tuesday afternoon… The data showed the U.S. corn crop in 69% good to excellent condition as of last Sunday, 22% fair and 9% poor to very poor condition. The U.S. soybean crop was in 65% good to excellent condition, 25% fair condition and 10% poor to very poor condition. The U.S. spring wheat crop was 72% harvested as of last Sunday. The U.S. cotton crop was reported in 51% good to excellent condition, 36% fair and 13% poor to very poor condition.
USDA reports monthly crush data… USDA Tuesday afternoon reported the corn-for-ethanol use for July 2025 at 455.817 million bushels versus the trade average at 455.7 million. That compares to an adjusted 446.897 million in June 2025 and 483.87 million in July 2024. The per-day crush for ethanol averaged 14.7 million bushels and was down from 14.9 million in June. The data point to a per bushel yield of 3.04 gallons, up from 3.00 in June. July is the eleventh month of the corn crop year. Consumption for ethanol totaled 4.978 billion bushels versus 4.999 billion last crop year. Corn used for ethanol has dipped the last couple months. USDA anticipates corn used for ethanol to total at 5.47 billion bushels in 2024-25, which would be down from 5.478 billion in 2023-24. Ethanol use will likely come up short of that mark use ran below 2023-24 levels throughout August. Meantime, the July 2025 soybean crush totaled 204.758 million bushels. The crush was up 7.8 million bushels from 196.925 million bushels in June 2025 and up 11.484 million from 193.274 million in July 2024. The crush came in below the trade average forecast of 208.1 million bushels from a Bloomberg poll. The July crush yield was 47.38 pounds, below 47.62 in June 2025 but above 47.07 pounds in July 2024. July 2025 is the eleventh month of the soybean crop year. Crush so far this crop year has consumed 2,245 million bushels versus 2,118 million bushels last crop year. The balance to the 2,420 million bushels forecast is 184.0 million bushels. Crush for the final month last crop year totaled 167.6 million. Crush needs to average 9.8% above a year ago to hit the USDA estimate. So far, crush has averaged 6.0% above last year. Crush was light last August so a big beat is not out of the picture to hit the current USDA crush use estimate. Soyoil stocks totaled 1.874 billion pounds at the end of July. The trade average was 1.917 billion from Bloomberg. Stocks were down from 1.893 billion in June 2025 and down from 2.009 billion in July 2024. Our preliminary estimate for July soyoil use is 2.492 billion pounds, down from 2.493 billion YOY.Implied domestic use totaled 2.392 billion and was below 2.395 billion in July 2024. Our export forecast of 100 million pounds is up modestly YOY. The monthly soybean oil yield was 11.88 pounds, down from 11.92 a year ago and from June at 11.93. The five-year average for July is 11.80 pounds.
Diesel prices likely to rise this fall… Diesel fuel’s summertime rally may extend into the fall if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates this month, according to Bloomberg report. A Fed rate cut in mid-September would bolster U.S. industrial activity powered by diesel fuel, analysts said. “A rate cut would be more supportive of base industrials and capital-intensive industries, which are heavy diesel users, meaning more diesel demand in a low-inventory environment,” said the report. However, diesel’s bull run may be slowed or halted by factors such as a warm winter, faster-than-anticipated inventory buildup, or inflated freight costs that curtail industrial activity, Bloomberg added.
Rising global bond yields a worrisome signal… Global bonds yields are on the rise (lower prices) mostly due to worries about inflation, government debt sales and fiscal discipline. U.S. Treasury yields have advanced, with the 30-year bond now approaching the 5% level, while yields on U.K., Australian and Japanese bonds are also increasing. The sell off reflects traders’ concerns around heavy government spending and the potential inflationary fallout, with a Bloomberg gauge of global bond returns falling 0.4% on Tuesday. A deluge of corporate debt sales on Tuesday and uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s independence are adding to the bond market pressures. Veteran market watchers know that history shows the months of September and October can be rough for the stock, financial and currency sectors—which in turn can negatively impact agricultural markets.
Fresh economic data from EU, China… Eurozone industrial producer prices increased by 0.4%, month-over-month, in July, exceeding market forecasts of up 0.2% and following a 0.8% rise in June. The primary driver of this inflation was a 1.5% surge in energy costs, which followed a 3.3% increase the previous month. Additional upward pressure came from durable consumer goods, which rose by 0.2% (vs. 0.1%), and capital goods, which also increased by 0.1% (unchanged from June). Conversely, the prices of non-durable consumer goods were flat (vs. 0.1% in June), and intermediate goods prices declined for the third straight month, falling by 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, producer price inflation eased to 0.2% in July from 0.6% in June, though it was still slightly above the consensus estimate of 0.1%. Meanwhile, the China general services purchasing managers index (PMI) increased to 53.0 in August, up from 52.6 in July and above expectations of 52.5. The reading marked the fastest expansion in the services sector since May of 2024. New orders grew at the strongest pace since May of 2024, supported by a sharper rise in new export business, which increased at the fastest rate in six months. Backlogs of work rose at a faster pace, indicating increased pressure on operating capacity. On prices, input costs rose slightly, driven by higher wages and raw material prices. Meanwhile, selling prices declined, as firms reduced charges to support sales amid intense competition. Sentiment in China remained positive, with confidence unchanged from July, amid hopes that improved market conditions and internal growth plans would help stimulate business activity.
China’s Xi shows off military power; Trump responds… Chinese President Xi Jinping showcased his nation’s military firepower at a parade alongside his allies, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un. The event was the first public appearance together for the three leaders, signaling their willingness to coordinate in challenging the U.S. Xi said China is determined to stand self-reliant and strong. The parade featured China’s latest military hardware, with Xi vowing to speed up the building of a “world-class military” and “firmly safeguard” sovereignty and territorial integrity. Meanwhile, President Trump sent a pointed message on the Truth Social platform, accusing the three leaders of working against the U.S. “Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against the United States of America,” Trump said in his post.
Malaysian palm oil futures lower… Malaysian palm oil futures slipped nearly 1% to below MYR 4,450 per MT Wednesday, as traders booked profits following a surge of more than 2% in the previous session. Sentiment was also weighed by concerns of a seasonal rise in output after July’s production climbed 7.1% from a month earlier to 1.81 million MT. Still, further losses were limited by a weaker ringgit. Meanwhile, purchases from top buyer India rose 16% month-on-month to 993,000 MT—the highest since July 2024—as refiners stepped up buying ahead of the festive season in mid-October, dealers said.
Cattle futures markets remain in solid price uptrends… The live and feeder cattle futures bulls on Tuesday showed modest follow-through buying strength early on, following gains last Friday. However, buying interest faded later in the session due to a keener risk-off trading day in the general marketplace Tuesday that saw the U.S. stock indexes sell off sharply. Lower boxed beef prices were also negative for trading action later in the session. Beef packer margins are presently reported to be solidly in the black. The average cash cattle trading price last week was reported Tuesday by USDA at $243.60, which is down slightly from last week’s average price of $244.25.
Lean hog futures looking bullish on the charts… The lean hog futures market on Tuesday saw modest technical buying from the speculators featured, amid firmly bullish near-technical charts. Gains were somewhat limited by a risk-off trading day in the general marketplace, as the U.S. stock market posted solid losses. The latest CME lean hog index price quote today (for Aug. 28) is down 26 cents at $106.17. Wednesday’s CME index price is projected down 25 cents at $105.92. Tuesday’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote is $108.77.Pork packer margins are presently reported to be slightly in the black.
Today’s USDA reports—Wednesday
--Broiler Hatchery 2:00 pm CDT
--Highlights from the September 2025 Farm Income 10:00 am CDT
--Webinar: Farm Income and Financial Forecasts, September 2025 Update 12:00 noon CDT
--National Dairy Products Sales Report – weekly approx. 2:00 pm CDT