Good morning!
Grain prices steady-firmer overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was up 1 1/4 cents, November soybeans up 3 1/2 cents and December winter wheat futures markets were steady to 3/4 cent lower. After two sessions in a row of losses, the corn market bulls need to step up and show some strength today to keep alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. Soybean bulls need to do the same today to keep their slight overall near-term technical advantage. Winter wheat futures markets late this week have given back all of their early-week gains. However, there are strong technical support levels just below current SRW and HRW price levels, to suggest limited downside. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $63.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.13 percent.
Soggy weather persists in central U.S., Plains… The National Weather Service today said scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue to linger across much of the Midwest/Mississippi Valley and central/southern Plains the next couple of days. There will likely be multiple rounds of storms, with moisture in place for moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Some isolated flash flooding is possible, with a focus on the upper Mississippi Valley southwest to the central Plains on Friday, and portions of the central/southern Plains and adjacent Ozarks on Saturday. Elsewhere, some scattered storms will be possible ahead of a sagging cold front through the southern Mid-Atlantic/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley Saturday. Forecast high temperatures will be above average and rather hot across much of the eastern U.S. for the last weekend of the summer. Highs into the upper 80s to mid-90s are expected from the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast and west through the lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, Mississippi Valley, and into the southern Plains/Texas. These temperatures are upwards of 15 degrees above average across the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. The northern/central Plains will be a bit cool Friday with highs in the 60s before temperatures rebound into the 70s Saturday.
China still snubbing U.S. soybeans… For the first time since at least the 1990s, China hasn’t bought any U.S. soybeans at the start of the export season, according to a Bloomberg report, a sign that Beijing is once again using agriculture as leverage in its trade fight with Washington. “As the world’s top soybean buyer, China wields enormous influence over global markets. Now it’s reviving a familiar tactic of holding back on U.S. purchases — deployed during the first trade war under President Donald Trump — as the two countries navigate a fragile truce, “ said the report. Data from USDA shows China hadn’t booked a single cargo of U.S. soybeans as of Sept. 11, almost two weeks into the new marketing season — the first time in records going back to 1999. Last year, the U.S. made up a fifth of China’s soybean imports, worth more than $12 billion, and accounting for over half of total U.S. soybean export value, Bloomberg said. China presently has hefty soybean stockpiles and is signaling it has the patience and capacity to wait — “and that it’s willing to use commodities as a bargaining chip in broader trade talks.”
Trump, China’s Xi phone conversation today… Today’s expected phone call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping may determine the fate of TikTok and potentially ease trade tensions between the two countries. Trump and Xi are due to discuss a framework agreement to shift control of TikTok’s U.S. operations from its Chinese parent ByteDance Ltd. to a consortium of American investors. The phone call may also lead to a potential in-person summit meeting between the two leaders and a broader agenda including discussions of geopolitical issues and trade talks.
Canada, Mexico to work closely together on trade deals, including with U.S. … The leaders of Canada and Mexico said at a press conference in Mexico they are committed to close coordination ahead of next year’s review of their trade pact with the U.S. as President Trump’s tariff threats put the current accord at risk. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Mexican counterpart Claudia Sheinbaum announced “the new Canada-Mexico Action Plan” to grow bilateral trade in infrastructure, energy and agriculture. Carney and Sheinbaum pledged to “move forward together” and emphasized the value of the USMCA’s three-party strength, with Carney saying “North America is the economic envy of the world” due to cooperation between Canada, Mexico, and the U.S.
Canada backs down a bit on U.S. lumber tariffs… Canada has withdrawn challenges against some U.S. import taxes on softwood lumber, calling it a strategic choice to maximize long-term interests and prospects for a negotiated resolution with the U.S. The Canadian government revoked two claims disputing U.S. anti-dumping duties on softwood lumber based on trading between June 2017 and December 2019, according to Canada’s Global Affairs department. Canada continues to believe that U.S. anti-dumping duties on softwood lumber are “unfair, unjustified and inconsistent with US law,” and will continue to pursue other challenges and engage with the U.S. administration to find a mutually beneficial outcome, said a Global Affairs department statement.
China pushes its pork producers to cut output amid supply glut… China has urged its top hog producers to play a leading role in reducing output as the country grapples with excess supply and weak demand in its massive pork sector, state-run Shanghai Securities News reported Thursday and relayed by TradingEconomics.com. At a high-level gathering this week, officials reportedly called on major firms to lower breeding sows, scale back slaughter volumes, and maintain hog weights near 120 kg (265 pounds). The meeting, led by the National Development and Reform Commission and the agriculture ministry’s animal husbandry bureau, signaled Beijing’s stronger push to curb overcapacity and stabilize prices. Authorities also plan to tighten credit for production expansion and reduce subsidies that drive pig output growth. Pork, which accounts for over two-thirds of China’s meat consumption, remains central to daily meals, festivals, and traditions, and its price swings are closely watched as a gauge of food inflation and broader economic sentiment.
Malaysian palm oil futures up a bit… Malaysian palm oil futures Friday edged higher, hovering near MYR 4,450 per MT and reversing losses from the Thursday session. Support came from a weaker ringgit and gains in rival soyoil on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges. Meanwhile, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board announced that the October crude palm oil reference price will keep the export duty at 10%. On the demand side, purchases from top buyer India are expected to remain firm ahead of the mid-October festive season. In August, India’s palm oil imports jumped 15.8% to 990,528 MT, the highest in over a year, as attractive pricing versus soyoil encouraged refiners to stock up.
Cattle markets await this afternoon’s monthly cattle-on-feed report… Cattle market bulls are hoping this afternoon’s USDA monthly cattle-on-feed report will be price-friendly and remind cattle traders of the still-tight feedlot cattle supplies. The cattle futures markets Thursday clawed back some of Wednesday’s losses but the bulls are still wobbly amid deteriorating cash and beef market fundamentals and fading near-term technical postures. Light cash cattle trading was reported by USDA at midday Thursday, at an average of $237.49 for steers and $237.29 for heifers. Last week’s cash cattle trade averaged $239.33.
Lean hog futures market consolidates… The lean hog futures market is seeing some chart consolidation late this week, after hitting a contract high Tuesday. The near-term technical posture for October hogs remains firmly bullish, which is keeping sellers timid at present. However, the wobbly cattle futures markets this week also have the hog bulls a bit leery. The latest CME lean hog index is down 14 cents at $105.86. Today’s projected cash hog index is down another 16 cents at $105.70. Thursday’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote is $105.70.
USDA reports today—Friday
-- Peanut Prices
-- Cattle on Feed