Good morning!
Grain futures prices weaker overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, March corn was down 3/4 cent and March soybeans down 5 cents. March SRW and HRW wheat futures were 3 1/2 to 5 1/4 cents lower. Corrective price pullbacks were featured in the grain futures overnight, following Thursday’s gains that saw winter wheat and soybean futures hit 2.5-month highs, while soybean oil hit a contract high. Corn also posted good gains Thursday. Ahead of the three-day U.S. holiday weekend, don’t be surprised to see some more profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term traders. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher, with crude oil prices weaker and trading around $62.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.12 percent.
Warm weekend weather across much of the U.S. … The National Weather Service today reported temperatures will continue to trend above normal over the next few days across much of the continental U.S. and especially over central portion, where temperatures will be 15-30 degrees above normal. Temperatures over the central/southern Plains into Southeast can see highs in the 60s to 70s, with some areas within Texas experiencing low 80s, while the Northeast will see close to normal seasonal temperatures between 30 to 40s. Meantime, widespread rainfall will occur across the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast, with a chance for embedded thunderstorms and localized heavy rain bands where training may occur. In addition, parts of the southern Plains have been placed under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding for Friday, as well as a slight risk for parts of the Mid-South for Saturday.
Analysts attempt to explain Thursday morning “flash crashes” in metals, U.S. stock indexes… Gold, silver, copper, platinum and palladium futures markets late Thursday morning plunged as concerns about artificial intelligence spurred a sell off across many markets, with algorithmic traders appearing to amplify the precious metal’s sudden drop. “Stock indexes also tumbled as investors bet that artificial intelligence would dent some companies’ future earnings, triggering a rout across risk assets. The dramatic decline in gold — which didn’t have a clear catalyst — was likely intensified by selling from commodity trading advisers using computer models to bet on price moves,” said a Bloomberg report. Margin calls also likely added to the sell off, with some investors forced to exit positions in commodities including metals to provide liquidity, said Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP SA. “We are all clueless. It all happened so quickly and feels like a ‘risk-out’ move,” Shiels said. In times of extreme market stress, haven assets like gold will also be sold by investors in dire need of liquidity, she added and as reported by Bloomberg.
U.S. consumer price index on deck this morning… This morning comes one of the most important U.S. inflation gauges: the consumer price index. Analysts are expecting a January CPI number of up 2.5%, year-on-year, with the “core” reading (minus food and energy) also seen up 2.5%, annually. The December CPI annual reading was up 2.5%, while the December core annual reading was up 2.6%. On Thursday there was a rumor swirling about the marketplace that the CPI print had been leaked early and that it was a “hot” number, inflation-wise. That rumor appears to be unfounded.
White House looking to roll back metals tariffs… The Trump administration is working to narrow its broad tariffs on steel and aluminum products that companies find difficult to calculate and the European Union wants reined in as part of its pending trade deal with the U.S., a person familiar with the matter said and as reported by Bloomberg. The U.S. Trade Representative’s Office is scrambling to resolve complications spawned last year by the Commerce Department’s efforts to rush out President Trump’s tariff agenda, the person said. The White House has communicated to companies that adjustments are in the works, but details and timing remain unclear, the person said. The rollback plans were reported earlier by the Financial Times. Aluminum fell in London following the report.
Cargill permanently shuttering Milwaukee beef plant… Cargill Inc. said it is permanently closing a plant that produces ground beef in Milwaukee, joining other meatpackers who have pulled back amid a severe cattle shortage. Cargill, one of the world’s largest beef producers, said in a notice that it would begin winding down operations at the plant soon, with a full closing around the end of May. The closure will result in the elimination of 221 jobs. Other companies have announced closures: Rival beef producer Tyson Foods Inc. earlier this year shut a cattle slaughtering plant in Nebraska and reduced operations at a Texas facility, while JBS NV said it would close a meat-processing plant in California.
U.S.-Taiwan finalize trade deal that includes U.S. ag products… The U.S. and Taiwan finalized a trade agreement to cut tariffs, boost market access for American products in Asia and channel billions of dollars into U.S. energy and technology projects. Under the terms of the deal unveiled Thursday in Washington, Taiwan pledged to purchase more than $44 billion worth of liquefied natural gas and crude oil from the U.S. and open its market further to American goods, including beef, dairy, pork, wheat, medical products and automobiles, Bloomberg reported. Taipei is also committing to buy around $15 billion in American civil aircraft and parts and invest roughly $25 billion in power-generation equipment by 2029. The signing formalizes an agreement Washington and Taipei announced in January that would lower tariffs on goods from the self-governed island to 15% from 20%.
Trump says U.S.-Iran talks could last for as long as a month… President Trump on Thursday said that he could see negotiations with Iran stretching for as long as a month, as he seeks a diplomatic agreement that would roll back Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. “I guess over the next month, something like that,” Trump told reporters Thursday when asked how long the talks would take. “Shouldn’t take — I mean, should happen quickly. They should agree very quickly,” Bloomberg reported. The president said it would be “very traumatic” for Iran if it failed to reach an agreement. Meantime, the U.S. will send the world’s largest aircraft carrier to the Middle East to back up another one that’s already there, a person familiar with the plans said Friday and as reported by the Associated Press, putting more American firepower behind Trump’s efforts to coerce Iran into a deal over its nuclear program.
NCC forecasts lower U.S. cotton acres… U.S. producers intend to plant 9.0 million cotton acres this spring, down 3.2 percent from 2025, according to the National Cotton Council’s 45th annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey. Upland cotton intentions are 8.8 million acres, down 3.4 percent from 2025, while extra-long staple (ELS) intentions of 161,000 acres represent a 14.0 percent increase. The survey results were announced Thursday during the NCC annual meeting. Based on average abandonment rates and yields, Cotton Belt harvested area totals 7.1 million acres for 2026 with an estimated crop of 12.7 million bales. This includes 12.3 million upland bales and 393,000 ELS bales.
Malaysian palm oil futures extend losses to fourth session… Malaysian palm oil futures dropped below MYR 4,010 per MT on Friday, extending losses for a fourth straight session and reaching a four-week low, dragged down by weakness in edible oil benchmarks on Dalian and Chicago markets. Lower export estimates also weighed on sentiment, with cargo surveyors reporting Malaysian shipments for February 1–10 fell between 10.5%–14.3% mom. The contract is set for a second weekly decline, off about 3.5% so far, as concerns over weak demand from key buyer China persisted after soft January CPI data, which came ahead of the Spring Festival. Prices also faced pressure from Indonesia’s pause on a higher biodiesel mandate, alongside expectations of stronger output in coming months. Still, the downside was cushioned by robust demand from top buyer India, with January imports surging 51% mom to a four-month high following a sharp drop in December. Meanwhile, Malaysia raised its March crude palm oil reference price, keeping the export duty unchanged at 9%.
Modest corrective selling pressure in cattle futures… April live cattle on Thursday fell 32 1/2 cents to $240.65. March feeder cattle lost $1.725 to $365.725. The cattle futures markets saw some corrective selling and profit taking after Wednesday’s gains. More of a risk-off trader/investor sentiment in the general marketplace Thursday also weighed on the cattle futures markets. USDA at midday Thursday reported very light cash cattle trading so far this week, averaging $243.00. Cash trading last week averaged $241.31. USDA Thursday reported weekly U.S. beef export sales of 15,700 MT for 2026, down 21% from the previous week and down 1% from the four-week average.
Lean hogs see heavy technical selling pressure… April lean hogs on Thursday fell $2.025 to $91.825 and hit a four-week low. Hog futures saw heavy profit-taking and technical selling pressure from the shorter-term traders. A rare and bearish broadening pattern has formed on the daily chart for April hogs and the technical bears are taking full advantage of it. The latest CME lean hog index is up 20 cents at $86.52. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Thursday was $65.41. USDA Thursday reported weekly U.S. pork export sales of 28,600 MT for 2026, down 18% from the previous week and down 24% from the four-week average.