Good morning!
Grain futures prices higher overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, May corn was up 2 3/4 cents and hit a seven-week high. May soybeans were 7 1/2 cents higher and hit a nearly two-year high. May soybean meal and bean oil prices were up. May SRW wheat was up 12 1/2 cents and May HRW wheat was 11 cents higher and hit an eight-month high. Rising crude oil prices are a bullish outside-market element for the grains. Also, it appears that speculators are now paying more attention to the grain markets, including the big fund traders, as near-term technical postures have become more bullish recently. The big bull runs in the metals markets are now very mature and may be petering out. That has the smart money looking for another market sector that could be on the verge of being the next big upside mover. Grains could be that sector. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down, with Nymex crude oil prices solidly higher, at a two-year high, and trading around $85.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.17 percent.
Latest on the war in Iran…
-- Qatar: Iran attacks navy in Bahrain-based GCC ops center
--Strait of Hormuz ostensibly closed
--Qatar warns it will not resume crude oil production until fighting stops
--Brent resumes gains, trades over $86 a barrel
--U.S. lets India buy some Russian oil, signals move to calm energy markets
--Trump tells NBC he wants to replace Iran leadership structure
--Israel carries out airstrikes; Iran targets Middle East countries
--Sri Lanka lets Iran navy ship dock after sinking of Dena
-- Maersk suspends more container ship services due to risks
-- Emerging currencies, equities set for worst week since pandemic
It’s jobs Friday…The U.S. economy likely added 59,000 payrolls in February 2026, marking a sharp slowdown from the strong 130,000 increase recorded in January, said TradingEconomics.com. “Part of the slowdown in hiring may be linked to strikes by the United Nurses Associations of California/Union of Health Care Professionals (UNAC/UHCP), which are expected to account for around 31,000 striking workers. The report is also expected to show the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. Meanwhile, wages likely rose 0.3% month-on-month after a 0.4% increase in January, with annual wage growth seen at 3.7%, unchanged from the previous month,” said the report.
U.S. gasoline prices at the pump jump to highest levels in 2.5 years… U.S. gasoline pump prices advanced to the highest level since September of 2024 as the conflict in the Middle East disrupts energy supplies from that region. The retail price of U.S. gasoline rose to $3.32 a gallon on Thursday, according to the American Automobile Association and as reported by Bloomberg. Gasoline futures have also rallied 27% this week and are on track for the biggest weekly advance since March 2022. Asian refiners have been cut off from critical supplies of crude that typically flow through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting some to consider cutting runs. China has told its largest refiners to suspend diesel and gasoline exports. The Middle East disruption also comes as U.S. refiners switch from producing winter-grade gasoline to more expensive gasoline, an annual transition that typically pushes prices up in the spring.
Markets price in 100% chance of ECB interest rate hike this year… There’s a 100% chance the European Central Bank will raise its interest rates this year, according to money markets. “That’s a dramatic turnaround from a week ago, when a cut was viewed as more likely than a hike. The shift is sending German government bonds toward their worst week in three years, with yields on rates-sensitive two-year notes up 30 basis points since last Friday’s close at 2.30%. The rapid change of expectations is reflected in markets around the world. In the U.S., options traders are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will forgo any rate cuts this year. The yield on 10-year Treasuries has soared more than 20 basis points to 4.17%, with the rate on Australian, Canadian and U.K. peers climbing by a similar margin,” Bloomberg reported today. The euro zone is especially vulnerable to energy shocks because it imports oil and gas from the U.S. and Middle Eas. “The big fear now is that the war causes a rerun of 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent energy prices soaring, leading to an inflation spike that lasted for longer than policymakers expected,” said Bloomberg. Meantime, the Bank of Japan April rate hike odds are now 50/50, said a former BOJ official.
Active weekend weather across much of U.S. … The National Weather Service today said weather will be active across much of the country the next couple of days. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast today from the upper Midwest and southwest through the Missouri Valley and into the central/southern Plains. Robust thunderstorms are likely in those regions. Very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will all be possible. In addition, plentiful Gulf moisture is making for excessive rainfall chances centered in the ArkLaTex area, where scattered flash flooding may occur. Some showers and thunderstorms are also expected to move into the Mid-Atlantic and Interior Northeast by Saturday evening as well. Meantime, moderate to locally heavy snow is forecast for the Rocky Mountains as well as along portions of the Front Range Friday. Totals of 3-6 inches can be expected for lower elevations with over a foot possible for the higher elevations in the mountains. Wintry precipitation will also follow in the cold post-frontal airmass further east with a swath of light to moderate snow for the High Plains and a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain into the Upper Midwest. Much of the central to eastern U.S. will continue to see well above average temperatures heading into the weekend.
Global food prices rise in February… The United Nations’ FAO Food Price Index increased 0.9% to 125.3 index points in February 2026, the highest in four months, from an upwardly revised 124.2 in January. Increases in the price indices for cereals, meats and vegetable oils more than offset declines in dairy and sugar, resulting in the first rise of the index after five consecutive monthly decreases. The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) is a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities. It consists of the average of five commodity group price indices weighted by the average export shares of each of the groups.
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Malaysian palm oil futures end week with gains… Malaysian palm oil futures climbed around 1.5% to above MYR 4,250 per MT on Friday, extending gains from the prior session and nearing a five-week high, supported by a weaker ringgit and strength in edible oils on the Dalian exchange. Contracts are on track for a weekly gain of about 5.5%, the strongest since mid-August, as crude oil prices surged amid the Middle East conflict, disrupting energy flows. Demand prospects also improved after palm oil imports in top consumer India climbed 10.1% mom in February to a six-month peak, aided by wider discounts to rival oils. Meanwhile, Reuters projected Malaysia’s stocks fell for a second month to a four-month low, with seasonal output declines outweighing weaker exports. Still, weaker exports capped momentum, with cargo surveyors noting February shipments down 21.5%–22.5% from January despite Eid al-Fitr buying. Caution also grew ahead of key data next week in China, the main buyer, including CPI and PPI figures, as well as trade readings.
Cattle futures markets see chart consolidation… April live cattle on Thursday rose 17 1/2 cents to $238.525. March feeder cattle fell $1.325 to $362.60. The cattle markets saw pauses and some price consolidation after Wednesday’s solid gains. Cash and beef market fundamentals remain overall positive. However, trader/investor risk appetite in the general marketplace is still shaky amid the Iran war, which could limit the upside in the cattle futures markets in the near term. USDA at midday Thursday reported no cash trade yet this week. Live cattle futures continue to trade below the cash market, which is supportive for futures. USDA Monday reported last week’s cash cattle trading averaged $242.71.
Lean hog futures see routine profit taking… April lean hog futures on Thursday fell $1.40 to $95.675. Hog futures saw profit-taking pressure and took back all of Wednesday’s gains. Keener risk aversion in the general marketplace also aided the hog futures bears. The latest CME lean hog index is up 34 cents at $90.18. Today’s projected cash index price is up another 37 cents at $90.55. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Thursday was $67.90.