Farmer sentiment extended its decline in June, with high input costs remaining at the top of the list of worries, the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index showed on Tuesday.
The index fell from 119 points in May to 113 points in June. The Index of Current Conditions dropped 5 points, falling to its lowest since December 2024. The Index of Futures Expectations dropped 7 points. The survey found 47% of farmers listed high input costs as their top concern, with low crop and livestock prices a distant second at 23%. The barometer survey was conducted among 400 farmers across the country from June 15 to 19.
Among the key takeaways:
- Only 12% of respondents indicated that their farm operations were better off in June than they had been a year ago. Looking ahead to the next 12 months, 22% of respondents expect their farms to be better off financially a year from now. The Farm Capital Investment Index fell 1 point to 40, its lowest level since September 2024.
- The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index declined from 130 in May to 124 in June, while the long-term index increased to 166, tying its record high. Alternative investments, net farm income, and inflation were cited as the three factors with the greatest influence on farmland values.
- Since July 2025, the survey has asked producers whether they think the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” or on the “wrong track.” After averaging 71% over the last six months of 2025, the percentage of producers who reported that the U.S. was headed in the “right direction” was 52% in May and 53% in June.
- There continued to be a large gap in expectations between crop and livestock producers. Approximately 25% of respondents expected good times for crop producers, while 68% expected good times for livestock producers.
AI skepticism
The June survey also featured two questions related to the use of artificial intelligence or data-driven tools in agriculture. The first question asked respondents what they saw as the main benefit from such tools, with 23% listing an increase in production, while 14% said reducing labor and 11% said reducing risk or uncertainty. Meanwhile, 52% said they didn’t see a meaningful benefit.
The survey also asked whether recommendations produced via data-driven tools would be difficult to follow. Approximately 63% of respondents indicated that recommendations would be sometimes difficult to follow, while 22% indicated that recommendations would often be difficult to follow.
Free trade
The June survey also examined agricultural exports and attitudes toward free trade. Approximately 43% of respondents expected agricultural exports to increase over the next five years, while only 9% expected agricultural exports to decline. Respondents were also asked how strongly they agreed or disagreed with the following statement: “Free trade benefits agriculture and most other American industries.” Nearly 85% agreed or strongly agreed with the statement.