Farmer sentiment declines in June: High input costs, low crop prices top concerns

As margins squeeze producer confidence, the Purdue-CME Ag Economy Barometer highlights deep skepticism over AI tools alongside a massive gap in expectations between crop and livestock sectors.

Female Farmer
Female Farmer
(Farm Journal)

Farmer sentiment extended its decline in June, with high input costs remaining at the top of the list of worries, the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index showed on Tuesday.

The index fell from 119 points in May to 113 points in June. The Index of Current Conditions dropped 5 points, falling to its lowest since December 2024. The Index of Futures Expectations dropped 7 points. The survey found 47% of farmers listed high input costs as their top concern, with low crop and livestock prices a distant second at 23%. The barometer survey was conducted among 400 farmers across the country from June 15 to 19.

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(Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer)

Among the key takeaways:

  • Only 12% of respondents indicated that their farm operations were better off in June than they had been a year ago. Looking ahead to the next 12 months, 22% of respondents expect their farms to be better off financially a year from now. The Farm Capital Investment Index fell 1 point to 40, its lowest level since September 2024.
  • The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index declined from 130 in May to 124 in June, while the long-term index increased to 166, tying its record high. Alternative investments, net farm income, and inflation were cited as the three factors with the greatest influence on farmland values.
  • Since July 2025, the survey has asked producers whether they think the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” or on the “wrong track.” After averaging 71% over the last six months of 2025, the percentage of producers who reported that the U.S. was headed in the “right direction” was 52% in May and 53% in June.
  • There continued to be a large gap in expectations between crop and livestock producers. Approximately 25% of respondents expected good times for crop producers, while 68% expected good times for livestock producers.

AI skepticism

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(Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer)

The June survey also featured two questions related to the use of artificial intelligence or data-driven tools in agriculture. The first question asked respondents what they saw as the main benefit from such tools, with 23% listing an increase in production, while 14% said reducing labor and 11% said reducing risk or uncertainty. Meanwhile, 52% said they didn’t see a meaningful benefit.

The survey also asked whether recommendations produced via data-driven tools would be difficult to follow. Approximately 63% of respondents indicated that recommendations would be sometimes difficult to follow, while 22% indicated that recommendations would often be difficult to follow.

Free trade

The June survey also examined agricultural exports and attitudes toward free trade. Approximately 43% of respondents expected agricultural exports to increase over the next five years, while only 9% expected agricultural exports to decline. Respondents were also asked how strongly they agreed or disagreed with the following statement: “Free trade benefits agriculture and most other American industries.” Nearly 85% agreed or strongly agreed with the statement.

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