Corn futures were up around a dime shortly after markets opened Sunday night, while soybean futures were modestly lower following Pro Farmer’s national crop estimates released Friday afternoon.
At 7:30 p.m. CDT, September corn was 9 cents higher at $4.85, while December gained 9 1/2 cents to $5.18. December corn hit a 2.5 year high on Friday, gaining 25 ¼ cents last week, having found support on lackluster yield results over the course of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour that ran from Aug. 17 to 20. After Friday’s closing bell, Pro Farmer estimated the U.S. corn crop at 15.334 billion bushels with an average national yield of 173.2 bu. per acre, reinforcing expectations USDA will trim its crop estimate in coming months after projecting a U.S. crop of 16.013 billion bushels off an average yield of 180.7 bu. per acre as of Aug. 1.
State-level Crop Tour results last week were almost a steady drumbeat of disappointment when it came to corn, as affirmed in our yield estimate. That helped lift corn futures and the grain markets, though a weaker dollar, firmer fuel prices, and continued strength in export demand have also aided the rally.
Lower ear counts and subpar ear sizes weighed on corn production potential, the Crop Tour found, along with variations in maturity and other factors. Cooler-than normal temperatures caused emergence issues and likely robbed some of the crop of vigor. A wet June in parts of the Corn Belt stunted growth before hot temperatures and dryness led to rapid growth in corn, leading to pollination issues and tip-back across Crop Tour states.
September soybeans were down 5 ½ cents at $12.19 ½, with November down 5 ¾ cents at $12.33 ¾. November beans saw a 47-cent gain last week. Pro Farmer estimated the soybean crop at 4.572 billion bushels on an average yield of 53.3 bushels per acre. USDA estimated the national yield at 52.7 bu. per acre this month.
While soybean pod counts were down from last year, they remained above three-year averages in some key states, leaving potential for a strong finish that will depend on cooperative late-season weather and a lack of disease pressure.
More state-by-state facts and other details on the estimate and this year’s Crop Tour can be found in your weekly Pro Farmer newsletter.