GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Wheat: 1 to 3 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat led strength overnight, soybeans led weakness and corn was caught in the middle. Soybeans quickly fell to the lower end of the recent trading range and are trading near key support. Front-month crude oil futures have stabilized in the low $90’s. The U.S. dollar index is around 150 points higher this morning.
Latest on the war in the Middle East:
--U.S. intercepts Iran oil supertankers as Tehran keeps Strait of Hormuz shut
--U.S. says it awaits Iran response on talks as Hormuz tensions rise
--Gold falls as U.S.-Iran Hormuz standoff heightens inflation risk
The U.S. military said it intercepted two Iranian oil supertankers that tried to evade its blockade as Washington continues to stymie the Islamic Republic’s shipping and Tehran threatens vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Bloomberg said the very large crude carriers Hedy and Hero II are anchored at Chabahar, an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman, after being intercepted earlier this week, U.S. Central Command said Wednesday on X. “The enforcement actions suggest a tiny amount of petroleum is now reaching global markets through the world’s most important oil channel. That’s because — up until the American blockade started — Iran had been the only nation sending meaningful amounts through it during the war. On Wednesday, Tehran reminded the world of its ability to scare off seafarers and commercial shipping attempting to sail through the strait, attacking at least three vessels and diverting two of them into its waters,” said the report.
China’s agriculture ministry said it will secure sufficient fertilizer supplies and stabilize prices, as the Iran war disrupts global markets for key crop nutrients, according to a Bloomberg report. The country has ample fertilizer for spring planting, the country’s main crop-sowing season, officials said at a briefing in Beijing today. While domestic prices have edged up, they’re still well below international levels, they said. Although Chinese prices have risen much less sharply than global benchmarks, the Zhengzhou futures market for urea — the most widely used nitrogen-based fertilizer — hit its highest level since August 2024 in recent days. “The ministry’s comments highlight an urgent need to prioritize fertilizer supplies after the conflict in the Middle East sent global prices surging. Farmers around the world depend on the region for shipments and have been forced to scramble for alternative supplies at much higher prices. China — a swing supplier to the global market in recent years — has tightened controls on exports to protect domestic supply,” said the Bloomberg report.
Export sales for the week ended April 16: Corn: Net sales of 1.401 MMT for 2025-26, up 3% from the previous week and 14% the four-week average. Japan led sales, followed by South Korea. Analysts expected sales of 1.0 to 1.8 MMT. Soybeans: Net sales of 247,900 MT for 2025-26 were a marketing year low, down 16% from the previous week and 39% from the four-week average. Egypt and Costa Rica led purchases. Analysts expected sales of 200,000 to 600,000 MT. Wheat: Net sales of 100,300 MT for 2025-26, down 39% from the previous week and 48% from the four-week average. Sales were in the middle of pre-report expectations ranging from 0 to 250,000 MT.
CORN: July corn futures saw some profit-taking overnight. Support comes in at $4.61 on persistent weakness. Bulls are eyeing yesterday’s high of $4.66 on a reversal higher.
SOYBEANS: July soybeans are back in the ongoing sideways range. Bulls are looking to hold stiff support at $11.76 1/2 on persistent selling. Resistance stands at $11.81 1/2 on a bounce, which is reinforced by the recent high close at $11.90 1/4.
WHEAT: July SRW futures continue to grind higher. Bulls are looking to overcome yesterday’s high of $6.20 1/2 on continued strength. Support stems from the 10-day moving average at $6.05, which is reinforced by the psychological $6.00 mark.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Mixed.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as strong technical support remains under prices. The 40-day moving average limited the downside on Wednesday. Cash trade has averaged $246.33 so far this week, a modest drop from last week’s average. Choice beef fell $1.99 to $384.19 yesterday, bringing an end to the recent string of gains.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mixed tone. The cash market has shown signs of bottoming as the CME lean hog index is up 54 cents to $91.05 as of April 21. Meanwhile, the big drop in futures yesterday gave bears the technical edge. Today’s session could be key in determining if a low is in place. Pork cutout slid 79 cents to $98.55 Wednesday, led by losses in picnics.