GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Wheat: 11 to 13 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat futures led strength overnight with corn and soybeans following to the upside. Risk markets were supported by reports of a stronger-than-expected job market this morning. Equity futures are solidly higher and on four-week highs while front-month crude oil futures are trading near unchanged. The U.S. dollar index is currently around 350 points lower.
The U.S. economy added 177,000 jobs in April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That is down from a revised 185,000 jobs in March but was well above pre-report expectations of 130,000. It was above average despite the uncertainty regarding tariffs that plagued the marketplace during April. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% and was in line with market expectations. The labor force participation rate did tick higher to 62.6% in April, matching the highest rate in the last six months.
The Trump administration is intensifying efforts to boost U.S. agricultural exports to Asia, pressing countries like Japan, South Korea, India and Thailand to lower tariffs and expand imports of American rice, soybeans, corn, pork and beef. Japan and South Korea made up 20% of U.S. rice exports in 2024 and were also top buyers of U.S. pork, with Japan importing 2.5 times more than China. Beef exports to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan accounted for 47% of total U.S. beef shipments. Six Asian countries represented 41% of total U.S. wheat exports. “Asia has already opened up quite a lot where it can,” said Keisuke Sano of Nomura Research Institute, adding that deeper agricultural shifts will require cultural adaptation.
In this week’s Washington negotiations, the U.S. handed Japan a draft framework for a potential trade agreement, according to Nikkei. Despite the exchange, the talks — led by top officials including U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Japan’s Ryosei Akazawa — yielded no breakthrough after over two hours of discussion. Tokyo proposed increasing U.S. imports of corn, soybeans and rice and reviewing non-tariff barriers affecting American autos. But the U.S. showed no sign of easing tariffs on cars, steel and aluminum—raising Japanese concerns. Ministerial-level talks resume in mid-May, with speculation a basic agreement could emerge by the June G7 summit.
CORN: July corn futures rebounded from Thursday’s weakness overnight. Bulls are looking to close prices above resistance at $4.75, while strength above that mark targets the 40-day moving average, which capped gains yesterday, at $4.79. Support comes in at $4.72 1/4 then this week’s low of $4.68 1/2 on a reversal lower.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures worked higher overnight. Resistance stands at $10.62 on continued strength, which is reinforced by the 200-day moving average at $10.66 1/4. Support stands at $10.50 3/4, the 10-day moving average, then $10.44 1/2.
WHEAT: July SRW futures led strength overnight. Prices overcame 10-day moving average resistance at $5.39 1/2. Bulls will seek to hold prices above that mark today and are eyeing additional resistance at $5.46. Support comes in at $5.34 3/4 on a reversal lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher amid reports of sharply higher cash cattle trade for the second consecutive week. June futures are trading near contract highs and have struggled to work higher the past couple of days as traders are cautious toward cash cattle’s’ ability to continue to trade near record highs as packer margins remain deep in the red. Trade so far this week has averaged $220.71 with movement already totaling more than the last couple of weeks. Wholesale beef was mixed on Thursday as Choice cutout fell $2.14 to $343.17 while Select firmed $2.26 to $324.28.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as key technical support is expected to continue to buoy futures. June lean hogs have been supported by 40-day moving average resistance the past couple of sessions, which remains solid support. Traders have been wary of continued strength in the cash hog market as pork cutout has seen choppy price action. Cutout slid 15 cents to $96.46 Thursday, while the CME lean hog index posted the 11th consecutive daily gain, rising 33 cents to $89.57.