GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Soybeans: 14 to 17 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW steady to 2 cents higher; HRW steady to 2 cents lower; HRS 2 to 4 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans surged higher overnight, supported by Trump encouraging China to increases purchases of U.S. soybeans, as noted below. Corn and wheat saw early strength, but gains were limited by technical resistance. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher while the U.S. dollar index is around 300 points higher.
President Trump said in a social media post today he hopes China will dramatically increase its purchases of U.S. soybeans. “China is worried about its shortage of soybeans,” Trump wrote on the Truth Social platform. “I hope China will quickly quadruple its soybean orders. This is also a way of substantially reducing China’s trade deficit with the USA.” Trump’s comments rallied soybean futures overnight and spurred fresh optimism that a trade deal between China and the U.S. could soon be completed. China faces an Aug. 12 deadline before its tariff truce with the U.S. expires. However, the Trump administration has suggested that deadline is likely to be extended.
Historically when corn acres are high, as they are this year, yields tend to suffer. On Tuesday, USDA will release its August crop report, the first survey-based view of the developing corn crop, and market participants are expecting a bin-buster. Some private crop estimates, such as those from StoneX which is forecasting national corn yields at 188.1 bu. per acre, are well above USDA’s current 181 bu. per acre trendline. There is still plenty of growing season left and changes in weather could upend current yield estimates, but 2025 maybe the year the idea of reduced national corn yields on big acreage bucks the conventional wisdom. We do an in depth look on what higher acres could mean for the corn crop here.
World Weather Inc. said late Sunday U.S. rain this week will be limited in the lower and eastern Midwest and from Nebraska into parts of Iowa. “These areas will be closely monitored for additional drying, although most computer forecast models bring timely rain around to prevent dryness from becoming a serious threat into the third week of this month.” Drying will continue in the far western U.S. and in portions of Texas as well as the northeastern states. Most other areas will get timely rain to support normal crop development and field work.“ U.S. crop areas east of the Rocky Mountains will experience very little excessive heat in the next 10 days. Midwest temperatures will be seasonable during much of the two-week forecast,” said World Weather.
CORN: December corn futures saw modest strength overnight. Resistance stands at $4.08 1/4, the 10-day moving average, then $4.12 1/2 on persistent strength. Support comes in at $4.00 on a reversal lower.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures surged higher overnight. The 40-day moving average limited gains at $10.14 and will persist as bulls’ initial target. Support comes in at the psychological $10.00 mark then $9.97 1/4, bulls want to defend those support levels on a closing basis.
WHEAT: December SRW futures saw modest profit-taking overnight. Bulls are looking to overcome stiff resistance at the 10-day moving average aet $5.39 1/2. Support comes in at $5.28 1/2 on renewed selling pressure.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of Friday’s sharp reversal lower. Continued selling would indicate market tops could be in place. Cattle futures have seen similar strong corrections over the past several months, but each has quickly reversed higher, a key to watch early this week. Last week, cash cattle trade remained light going into Friday afternoon, but trade looks to come in lower for the week. Wholesale beef ended Friday mixed as Choice cutout slipped 10 cents to $378.84 while Select rose $1.34 to $355.09.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as contra-seasonal strength in cash fundamentals is expected to support prices, though followthrough selling in the cattle market could limit gains after the open. The CME lean hog index is up another 15 cents to $110.25 as of Aug. 7, building on Friday’s reversal. Pork cutout rose $1.08 to $117.41 Friday, led by gains in bellies and butts.