GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Soybeans: 4 to 6 cents higher.
Wheat: 8 to 11 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: The grain and soy complex favored a risk-on tone overnight, making up a portion of Wednesday’s losses. Traders are looking to today’s USDA reports, though expectations indicate not much of a shift in the balance sheets. Outside markets are favorable this morning as front-month crude oil futures are solidly higher while the U.S. dollar index is around 200 points lower.
USDA reported daily export sales of 136,000 MT of corn for delivery to South Korea during the 2025-26 marketing year.
Latest on the war in the Middle East:
--The White House says U.S. will hold direct talks with Iran, but mistrust runs high on both sides
-- VP Vance to lead U.S. negotiations with Iran in Pakistan Saturday
--There were no reports of strikes from Arab Gulf nations for much of Wednesday
--Trump said U.S. military to remain in place around Iran until ceasefire is reached
--Lebanon remains stumbling block to negotiations after a barrage of attacks from Israel
--The Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed as of today
--Some tankers in Persian Gulf are sailing east to be nearer to the Strait of Hormuz
--U.S. asks allies for quick plans to secure Hormuz after ceasefire
--Crude oil rises after biggest drop since 2020 as Hormuz stays blocked
--U.S., European stocks back in the red as ceasefire optimism fades
Grain traders await monthly USDA supply and demand report near midday. The agency is expected to show only small changes in U.S. corn, soybean and wheat stockpiles from the March report. However, U.S. corn stocks in March are expected to be significantly higher than in March of 2025. U.S. wheat and soybean stocks are seen modestly above levels seen at the same time last year. Meantime, traders expect the agency to estimate Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production levels to be very close to what it estimated in the March report. U.S. cotton production, ending stocks and export numbers are all expected by USDA to be very little changed from its March report.
Export sales for the week ended April 2:
- Corn: Net sales of 1.361 MMT for 2025-26 were up 18% from the previous week and 8% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Japan and Mexico. Sales came in the middle of pre-report expectations ranging from 750,000 MT to 1.6 MMT.
- Soybeans: Net sales of 295,400 MT for 2025-26 were down 16% from the previous week and 34% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for China and Japan. Sales were in the middle of pre-report expectations ranging from 200,000 to 600,000 MT.
- Wheat: Sales totaled 163,600 MT for 2025-26 and were primarily for Japan. Sales came in above pre-report expectations ranging from 0 to 150,000 MT.
CORN: May corn futures bounced overnight. Resistance stands at $4.52 3/4 on continued strength, which marks the 40-day moving average. Support comes in at yesterday’s low of $4.42 1/4 on a reversal lower.
SOYBEANS: May soybeans cracked back into the ongoing sideways range. Support stands at $11.64 1/2 then $11.52. Resistance comes in at $11.66 1/4 then $11.70 on a rally.
WHEAT: May SRW futures made up some of Wednesday’s loss overnight. Resistance stands at $5.94 1/2 on persistent strength. Bulls are looking to hold prices above $5.85 1/4, the 40-day moving average, with additional support at yesterday’s low of $5.77 on a push lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of recent strength. Prices have stalled near recent highs awaiting confirmation from the cash market. Packer margins have fallen sharply the last couple weeks amid the surge in cash cattle and drop in boxed beef. Choice beef slid another $3.08 to $379.66 Wednesday.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone amid technical buying. Following Wednesday’s selloff, futures are in the lower end of the recent range, which could spur profit-taking. The CME lean hog index is up 24 cents to $90.30. Bulls are keeping a close eye on the cash market for signs of a sustained reversal. Pork cutout slid 91 cents to $96.91 Wednesday, led by losses in bellies and ribs.