GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 5 to 7 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 3 to 5 cents lower; HRS steady to 2 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans led strength overnight while corn struggled to overcome key technical resistance. Wheat saw relative weakness and hit fresh lows. Outside markets had little effect on ag markets overnight, as front-month crude oil futures are just modestly lower while the dollar index is around 50 points higher.
The National Weather Service today reports a messy wintry mix is moving eastward from the Ohio Valley into the central/southern Appalachians and portions of the Mid-Atlantic this morning, with ongoing snow showers from the Upper Ohio Valley north to the Lower Great Lakes shifting eastward into interior New England and the Mid-Atlantic. To the west, another couple systems are bringing wintry weather to portions of the central and western U.S. First, an upper-wave dropping southward through the Great Basin/Rockies will bring moderate to locally heavy mountain snow over the next couple of days. Lower elevations will also see some snow showers, though accumulations will generally remain limited.
China several weeks ago promised to book at least 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans this year, to be followed by additional purchases of at least 25 million tons annually over the next three years. China has not officially confirmed that target but has moved to reduce tariffs on the crop and lifted import bans on three U.S. exporters. Unless there are political impediments, “there would be no reason for them not to at least have made that amount of sales. Whether it’s shipped or not, that’s another thing,” said Wayne Gordon of UBS Group AG’s wealth management arm and as reported by Bloomberg. “The catch is that with only weeks left in the year, time is tight. According to Bloomberg calculations based on USDA data, Chinese buyers have booked roughly 3 million tons — still far short of the target. To meet that goal, they would have to book the remaining volumes over less than a month, and an unpredictable buying pace has stoked concern that China may be hampered by bureaucratic and logistical hurdles, even if it did want to honor its apparent commitment,” said the Bloomberg report. “The fact that it doesn’t make commercial sense for buyers to purchase U.S. soybeans will naturally slow down the pace of purchasing,” said Even Pay, director at Beijing-based advisory firm Trivium China, adding that the 12 million-ton pledge now looked all but out of reach.
The Paris-based think tank Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said the global economy is weathering U.S. and other countries’ trade tariffs better than expected due to strong investment in artificial intelligence and supportive fiscal and monetary policies. The OECD raised its U.S. and European area economic growth forecasts for this year and next but still predicts global growth will slow to 2.9% in 2026 from 3.2% in 2025. The OECD cautioned that the outlook is “fragile” and its projections are “subject to substantial risks” due to concerns about swift changes in trade measures and the risk of abrupt price corrections in the tech sector.
CORN: March corn futures struggled to topple 200-day moving average resistance at $4.46 3/4 in early overnight trade. That level stands as key resistance. Support stands at $4.43 3/4, the 10-day moving average, which capped the downside the past two sessions.
SOYBEANS: January soybeans made up of a portion of Monday’s losses overnight. Bulls are eyeing yesterday’s high of $11.42 1/4 on persistent strength. Support comes in at $11.30 3/4 then $11.23 1/2 on a push lower.
WHEAT: March SRW wheat hit fresh for-the-move lows overnight. Support stands at the psychological $5.30 mark, which is reinforced by support at $5.25. Resistance stands at $5.39 1/2 on a bounce.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Lower.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open lower in a continuation of recent selling pressure. Bears defended 20-day moving average resistance on Monday, a key technical hurdle for bulls. Until the cash cattle market shows signs of a reversal, traders are unlikely to stick their neck out overcoming technical obstacles. Wholesale beef showed signs of strength on low movement Monday, with choice cutout rising $2.07 to $368.89 while select rose $6.83 to $357.88.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of recent selling pressure. Bears defended technical resistance at the 40-day moving average, currently at $82.35, the past two sessions. The CME lean hog index is down another 25 cents to $81.67 as of Nov. 25, extending the seasonal slide. Pork cutout rose 57 cents to $94.79 Monday on low movement.