GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Wheat: SRW 5 to 7 cents lower; HRW 3 to 5 cents lower; HRS steady to 2 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat led weakness overnight as corn and soybeans struggle to maintain early bullish momentum. Threatening powerful winds did little to spur a bounce in corn overnight, as the ramifications of the derecho like storm remain largely unknown at this juncture. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher while the U.S. dollar index is around 400 points higher and continuing to break out.
The National Weather Service early today reports severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall are possible across portions of the Northern/Central Plains today. Storms starting in eastern Montana are forecast to sweep across parts of the Dakotas, Wyoming, Nebraska and Iowa by Wednesday morning. Slight risks of excessive rainfall (at least 15% chance) and severe thunderstorms (level 2/5) are in effect for many of the aforementioned areas, with damaging winds and hail possible. Storms are then expected to pick back up again over the Midwest on Wednesday, with flash flooding possible. Meantime, a strong upper ridge will continue to generate a dangerous and prolonged heatwave across the central and eastern U.S. through the end of the month. Daily high temperatures will be well into the 90s and 100s, with little to no overnight relief. The heat is also likely to break daily temperature records through the week, said the NWS.
USDA rated the corn crop as 73% “good” to “excellent” and 7% “poor” to “very poor,” the soybean crop 70% “good” to “excellent” and 6% “poor” to “very poor” and the spring wheat crop 49% “good” to “excellent” and 16% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop improved less than 1 point to 385.8, despite the small decline in overall national ratings. The soybean crop improved 2.9 points, remaining slightly above last year. The spring wheat rating decreased 5 points, and now sits 39 points below where the crop was rated last year at this time.
Posting on social media late Monday in Scotland, President Trump said he is not seeking a summit with Chinese leader Xi but is considering going to China at Xi’s invitation. This comes as U.S. and China trade officials are meeting this week in Stockholm, Sweden. “Trump is facing increased criticism from China hawks in Washington that he’s conceding too much to secure a breakthrough with Xi on trade,” reports Bloomberg. U.S. and Chinese officials Tuesday started a second day of talks aimed at extending their tariff truce beyond a 90-day period that expires in two weeks.
CORN: December corn futures based near yesterday’s lows overnight. Support stems from $4.10 1/2 then $4.07 1/2 on continued selling pressure. Resistance stands at $4.15 3/4 then the 10-day moving average at $4.18 1/4.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures consolidated overnight. Support comes in at $10.07 1/4 then the psychological $10.00 mark on persistent selling. Resistance stands at $10.19, the 10-day moving average, on a bounce.
WHEAT: December SRW futures saw sharp selling overnight. Prices broke to a 2 and a half month low. Support stems from the psychological $5.50 mark then $5.43 3/4. Resistance stands at $5.60 1/4 on a bounce.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open higher in a continuation of recent strength. Cash cattle averaged $239.38 last week despite week trade early in the week. The bullish Cattle on Feed Report spurred stronger cash strength on Friday. The pairing of stronger cash and a bullish report led futures to all-time highs on Monday, with followthrough strength expected today. Wholesale beef ended Monday higher as Choice cutout climbed $1.05 to $367.73 while Select climbed $1.98 to $346.85
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of recent strength, though waning gains in cash fundamentals could limit gains after the open. The CME lean hog index is up another 4 cents to $110.32 as of July 25. Pork cutout fell 57 cents to $118.29 on Monday, led by losses in primal butts. Futures continue to trade below the cash market which could limit losses if sellers take hold of the market.