GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Soybeans: 10 to 13 cents higher.
Wheat: 3 to 5 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans led the way higher on optimism around Chinese imports of U.S. beans. Corn and wheat followed beans to the upside. Corn needs to negate yesterday’s close below uptrend support for bulls to regain the technical advantage. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures and the U.S. dollar index are both modestly lower.
USDA reported daily sales of 108,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to Egypt during the 2025-26 marketing year.
The soybean futures markets rallied overnight, with March beans hitting a nine-week high, after a report on a potential extended trade truce between the U.S. and China fueled hopes for additional purchases of American agricultural products, including soybeans. President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping could extend their trade truce by as much as a year when they meet in Beijing in April, the South China Morning Post reported Thursday and as reported by Bloomberg, citing several unidentified people familiar with the discussions. The summit is set to be anchored around short-term economic wins, including fresh Chinese purchase commitments, the Morning Post report said. Last week, Trump said in a social media post that China was considering extending its soybean purchases to 20 million tons in the current season.
President Trump is privately considering exiting USMCA, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter, injecting further uncertainty about the deal’s future into pivotal renegotiations involving the U.S., Canada and Mexico. The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement is set for a mandatory review before a possible extension on July 1, “a process that was once expected to be routine but has transformed into a contentious negotiation, with Trump demanding additional trade concessions from Ottawa and Mexico City,” said Bloomberg. Meantime, the Republican-led U.S. House has passed legislation aimed at ending the Trump’s levies on Canadian imports. “Wednesday’s vote represents an increase in political pressure to change course on Trump’s signature economic policy just months before the midterm elections,” said Bloomberg. “The vote also signals a growing anxiety over the White House’s economic agenda before elections that are expected to focus heavily on affordability.” The U.S. Senate will now take up the measure.
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said surprising strength in January’s U.S. jobs data doesn’t mean Fed policymakers should hold off on additional interest rate cuts. “Miran said planned supply-side reforms such as a reduction of business regulations, along with an expectation that housing inflation will slow, will clear the way for policymakers to continue lowering their benchmark rate. Miran has dissented at every policy meeting since joining the Fed’s board in September, favoring larger reductions than his colleagues were prepared to support,” said a Bloomberg report. There are “a variety of reasons why I want to see lower interest rates, and while (Wednesday’s) jobs data made me feel really good about the economy, I think the truth is that pushing out the supply side of the economy still allows for monetary policies to accommodate that,” he told Fox Business in an interview. Traders have pared the probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s June FOMC meeting — previously eyed as the most likely timing for the next reduction — to less than 50%.
CORN: March corn futures rebounded overnight. Bulls found resistance at the 20-day moving average at $4.29 1/4, which has capped the upside the past three sessions. Additional resistance stands at $4.30. Support stands at $4.27, a must hold level.
SOYBEANS: March soybeans extended higher overnight. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $11.40 then $11.50 higher on continued strength. Support comes in at $11.25 then $11.15 1/4 on a turn lower.
WHEAT: March SRW futures are working to break higher. Bulls managed to close prices above the 100-day moving average Wednesday, which stands as key support at $5.33. Continued strength has bulls targeting resistance at $5.50.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open higher in a continuation of recent strength. Bulls remain in full control of both the technical advantage and fundamentals. Cash cattle trade remains abysmal so far this week but traders anticipate cash strength to continue as futures are trading above cash for the first time in several weeks. Choice cutout slid $1.63 to $365.92 Thursday, continuing the recent slide in boxed beef.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of recent selling pressure. Strength returning to the CME lean hog index could encourage bulls to limit losses after the open. The index is up 20 cents to $86.52 as of Feb. 10. Pork cutout slid $1.69 to $93.77 Wednesday, led by losses in ribs and hams.