Ahead of the Open | November 15, 2022
GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Soybeans: 2 to 3 cents lower.
Wheat: SRW wheat 8 to 11 cents lower, HRW and spring wheat 1 to 4 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybean and wheat futures fell overnight amid optimism a deal allowing Ukraine grain exports will be extended beyond the Nov. 19 deadline. Malaysian palm oil futures dropped 2% to a two-week closing low as the ringgit strengthened, while front-month crude oil was down around $1 lower. U.S. stock index futures signal a stronger open, while the U.S. dollar index is down more than 800 points this morning after hitting a three-month low.
USDA reported daily sales of 230,185 MT of corn and 261,272 MT of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2022-23 marketing year.
Russia is expected to agree to an extension of a United Nations-brokered deal allowing exports of grain and other agricultural products from the Black Sea, Bloomberg reported, citing four people familiar with the discussions. A Kremlin spokesman today said Moscow would announce whether it was extending its participation in the Black Sea grain deal “at the appropriate time,” state-run TASS news agency reported. The UN said discussions on the deal are ongoing but there was nothing to announce yet.
Recent rain in Argentina “was good for spring and summer crop planting, but follow up rain is still needed,” World Weather Inc. said. Argentina will receive some rain in the coming week to 10 days, but the largest amounts will be in Buenos Aires, and other areas in the nation will need greater rainfall to maintain improving crop and field conditions trend.
One to five inches of snow fell in dry areas of southwestern Kansas, the Texas Panhandle and neighboring areas of Oklahoma overnight, World Weather said. “The moisture content in the snow was not great, though, and no significant change in drought status occurred,” the forecaster said. Western portions of U.S. HRW country “will continue to be drier than usual for an indefinite period of time.”
Members of the International Brotherhood of Boilermakers (IBB) rejected the tentative agreement reached between unions and freight railroads. A cooling off period will last until Dec. 9 and the union said it intends to continue negotiating. IBB is the smallest union involved in the situation, but all unions have said they will not cross picket lines if one union goes on strike.
Indian wheat stocks in government warehouses as of Nov. 1 were half the level of a year ago, government data showed. Wheat reserves in state stores totaled 21 MMT at the start of this month, down from 42 MMT a year earlier. Lower state reserves could hamper the government’s efforts to release stocks to tame prices. Wheat prices have surged in India despite the world’s second biggest producer of the grain banning on exports in May as it was stung by a sudden drop in crop yields.
Members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) are expected to report soybean crush totaled 184.5 million bu. in October. That would be up 16.7% from September and 0.3% above last year. Soyoil stocks are expected to total 1.535 billion pounds.
China purchased around 120,000 MT of French wheat over the past week. Japan is seeking 94,687 MT of milling wheat in its weekly tender. Jordan passed on a tender to buy 120,000 MT of milling wheat.
CORN: USDA late Monday reported 93% of the U.S. corn crop was harvested as of Sunday, up from 87% a week earlier and ahead of the 85% average for that date the previous five years. December corn fell to $6.53 overnight, 3/4 cent above Monday’s low, which was the lowest intraday price since Aug. 26. A drop under support at the 100-day moving average at $6.50 1/4 could spark fund liquidation and a test of further support at $6.46 1/2 and $6.25.
WHEAT: USDA late Monday reported 32% of the U.S. winter wheat crop in “good” or “excellent” condition as of Sunday, up from 30% a week earlier and slightly better than analysts’ expectations for 31%. Wheat rated “poor” to “very poor” totaled 32%, down from 34% a week earlier.
When USDA’s weekly condition ratings are plugged into the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop improved 4.7 points to 270.6 while the SRW crop rose 6.6 points to 357.0. Most of the HRW improvement was in in Montana, while SRW improvement was largely in Illinois, Michigan and Ohio. CCI ratings remain 71.3 points below the five-year average for HRW and 5.3 below for SRW.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Steady-firm
HOGS: Steady-weaker
December live cattle rose 5 cents Monday to $151.575, after earlier falling to $151.25, the lowest intraday price since Nov. 3.
HOGS: Lean hog futures may extend recent sideways trade but buying interest may be limited by a continued slide in cash fundamentals. The national direct cash hog price fell $1.26 Monday despite a $2.74 gain in the Iowa/southern Minnesota market. December futures ended Monday at a discount of $3.755 to the cash index, indicating traders expect the cash benchmark to continue to weaken in the near-term amid seasonally increasing slaughter levels. Pork cutout values fell $1.33 Monday to $96.56 as hams dropped nearly $4, with movement slower at about 298 loads. December lean hog futures rose 52.5 Monday cents to $84.875.
