GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: 5 to 7 cents higher.
Wheat: Steady to 2 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans continue to lead strength as soymeal is leading a rebound. Corn and wheat both hit fresh contract lows overnight, though went into the break off session lows. StoneX released their initial 2025 production estimates, compiled from customer surveys, estimating yields at 188.1 bu. per acre for corn and 53.6 bu. per acre for soybeans. That likely weighed heavily on corn prices overnight. Outside markets are unsupportive this morning as front-month crude oil futures continue to inch lower while the U.S. dollar index is around 175 points higher.
USDA rated the corn crop as 73% “good” to “excellent” and 7% “poor” to “very poor,” the soybean crop 69% “good” to “excellent” and 7% “poor” to “very poor” and the spring wheat crop 48% “good” to “excellent” and 17% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop declined less than 1 point to 384.8, despite no change in the overall national ratings from last week. The soybean crop declined 1 point and now sits about one point above last year. The spring wheat rating decreased 1.6 points and harvest began in most states this week.
Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his 2025 U.S. corn yield estimate unchanged this week at 182.0 bu/ac, with a neutral bias going forward. “The hot and humid weather during July was generally beneficial for the corn, except for isolated pollination issues, but good July rains have probably offset any losses from poor pollination.” Nighttime temperatures during July were warmer than normal and the third highest since 2000, behind only 2011 and 2012. Cordonnier’s 2025 U.S. soybean yield was left unchanged this week at 52.5 bu/ac, with a neutral bias going forward.
India rebuffed criticism from the U.S. and EU over its Russian oil imports, calling the criticism “unjustified and unreasonable.” Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said on Monday the purchases of Russian oil were crucial for maintaining affordable and stable fuel prices for Indian consumers. The pushback followed President Trump’s threat to impose steep tariffs on India for trading in Russian oil. Jaiswal added that India turned to Russian oil only after the Ukraine war disrupted traditional supply chains, with many suppliers shifting focus to Europe.
CORN: December corn futures hit a fresh contract low overnight. A test of psychological support at $4.00 seems likely. Resistance stands at $4.11 on a reversal higher.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures continue to be supported by strength in meal. Prices challenged $10.00 resistance overnight, which is reinforced by the 20-day moving average at $10.11 on continued strength. Support stands at $9.95 then last week’s low of $9.86.
WHEAT: December SRW futures hit a fresh contract low overnight. Support persists at $5.30 on continued selling pressure. Resistance stands at $5.40 then the 10-day moving average at $5.46 1/4 on a bounce.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open higher in a continuation of recent strength. Cash cattle set another record last week as cash cattle prices rose another $3.79 to $243.17. Negotiations are likely to have a slow start again this week as packer margins remain deep in the red and cash supplies remain tight, but higher cash trade is expected once again barring an unexpected downturn in futures. Wholesale beef ended Monday higher as Choice cutout rose another $1.10 to $364.32 while Select climbed $1.09 to $341.59.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone amid persistent weakness in the CME lean hog index, but technical buying could limit losses after the open. Futures rose on Monday and are challenging downtrend resistance, which could lead to additional speculative buying interest if prices push higher on today’s open. The CME Lean hog index is down another 27 cents to $109.99 as of Aug. 1. Pork cutout rose 85 cents to $117.79 on Monday, led by a rebound in hams.