GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Soybeans: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Wheat: 2 to 4 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Trade has remained relatively quiet ahead of this morning’s production and supply & demand reports from USDA. Corn saw relative strength overnight while wheat favored the downside, with soybeans caught in the middle. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher while the U.S. dollar index is around 300 points higher.
USDA reported daily export sales of 22,000 MT of soybean oil for delivery to South Korea during the 2025-26 marketing year.
Look for potentially higher grain futures markets price volatility in the immediate aftermath of today’s USDA monthly supply and demand report, out at 11:00 a.m. CDT. According to a Reuters survey of analysts, the agency will estimate U.S. corn production at 16.516 billion bushels and an average yield of 186.2 bushels per acre. That compares to USDA’s August production estimate of 16.472 billion bushels and an average yield of 188.8 bushels an acre. The average of the analysts surveyed by Reuters shows a U.S. soybean production estimate of 4.271 billion bushels and an average yield of 53.3 bushels an acre in the September report, compared to the August USDA production estimate of 4.292 billion bushels and an average yield of 53.6 bushels an acre.
Brazil’s farmers harvested a record 171.47 million MT of soybeans and a record 139.67 million MT of corn in the 2024/2025 season, Brazilian crop agency Conab said on Thursday in its final grain production report covering the period and as reported by Reuters. The final numbers represent a 1.82 million MT increase in soybean production and a 2.67 million MT rise in total corn production compared to Conab’s August forecast. Conab also revised soybean area and yields for all seasons between 2020/21 and 2024/25, resulting in a cumulative increase of 13.12 million MT in estimated production during the period. Conab also raised Brazil’s soybean export forecast for the 2024/25 season, saying the country will ship 400,000 MT more than it expected last month, or 106.65 million MT. Brazil sells most of its soybeans to China and continues to book sales due to stalled trade talks between the U.S. and China halfway through the prime of the U.S. soybean marketing season.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Madrid, Spain next week to discuss trade, economic and national security issues in another sign that talks between the two sides are making progress. The discussions next week will also cover TikTok’s status and efforts to combat money laundering, according to a schedule released by the Treasury Department on Thursday. The economic talks next week come as Washington and Beijing have engaged in communications this week, smoothing the path for a potential summit meeting between Chinese Premier Xi Jinping and President Trump.
CORN: December corn saw relative strength overnight. Prices are trading just below initial resistance at $4.23, which is reinforced by the 100-day moving average at $4.25. Support comes in at $4.18 on a reversal lower.
SOYBEANS: November soybeans traded on either side of unchanged overnight. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $10.37 3/4 on report driven strength. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $10.30 1/2 on a push lower.
WHEAT: December SRW wheat continue to be bogged down by stiff resistance at the 10-day moving average, currently at $5.22. That has limited gains over the past couple of weeks. Support comes in at $5.15 on persistent selling pressure.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as traders shore up discounts to the cash market, but persistent technical selling could limit gains after the open. Bulls struggled overcoming 20-day moving average resistance at $233.65 on Thursday, which stands as key resistance. Cash trade continues at lower prices, averaging $238.98 through Thursday midday. Wholesale beef continues to fall under pressure as Choice fell $4.85 to $400.79 Thursday while Select fell $3.73 to $379.95.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher in a continuation of recent strength. Prices closed near contract highs on Thursday in an impressive show of strength. Prices are short-term overbought which could limit buying interest after the open. The CME lean hog index is up another 11 cents to $106.04 as of Sept. 12. Pork cutout slid $1.60 to $113.17 on Thursday, led by losses in primal bellies.