GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 4 to 6 cents lower.
Soybeans: 10 to 15 cents lower.
Wheat: 4 to 14 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Corn and soybean futures were down overnight on profit-taking pressure after gaining for much of the week. HRS futures led declines in wheat markets. The U.S. dollar index is higher this morning, while crude oil futures are near unchanged.
North Dakota’s spring wheat crop will yield an estimated 29.1 bu. per acre on average, according to scouts on the Wheat Quality Council’s spring wheat tour. That’s the lowest yield projection for the tour, which started in 1993, and also well below the tour’s 2015-2019 average of 43.6 bu. per acre.
Areas of the western Corn Belt are expected to get some needed rains today and Saturday. The GFS model run showed no significant rainfall changes for the U.S. over the coming week, according to World Weather Inc. For August 6-8, rainfall prospects increased from the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles through the central and northwestern parts of the Corn Belt. For August 11-13, rain prospects increased for the Northern Plains and from northeastern Kansas through northern Ohio.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange yesterday said the country’s 2021-22 wheat crop was damaged by last week’s cold front, but it maintained its 19-million-metric-ton (MMT) crop estimate. In the weekly report, the exchange said, “In the central strip of the agricultural area, the thermal decrease gave rise to frosts that caused foliar damage and delays in development.”
The French farm office maintained its 75% good or excellent rating for the French soft wheat crop this week and reported solid gains in harvest thanks to a dry week. Harvest surged 33 percentage points ahead in the week ended July 26 to 47% complete.
The European Commission now estimates the EU will bring in a 127.7 MMT usable common wheat crop in 2021-22, up 1.9 MMT from its forecast last month. That would also be a 9% jump from last year’s 117.2 MMT crop. The commission made no change to its 2021-22 export forecast that stands at 30 MMT.
In overnight demand news, Pakistan may have purchased around 220,000 MT of wheat in an international tender for up to 500,000 MT of the grain.
CORN: December futures overnight held within this week’s range between Tuesday high of $5.60 3/4 and Monday’s low of $5.32 1/4 and could still end with a weekly gain (the new-crop contract closed at $5.43 last Friday). A good portion of the Midwest has ample soil moisture and will experience cooler temperatures starting tomorrow, but drought conditions have worsened in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
SOYBEANS: November soybeans held inside this week’s price range between Tuesday’s high at $13.87 1/2 and Monday’s low at $13.32 and should close higher on the week (the new-crop contract closed last Friday at $13.51 3/4). Futures remain supported by concerns over dry soils in the northwest Corn Belt as the crop approaches critical development stages next month.
WHEAT: Scouts on the spring wheat tour encountered uneven growth and short plants with small grain heads due to long-lasting and severe drought in the region. They also commented that some fields will be abandoned or hayed.
CATTLE: Steady-firm
HOGS: Steady-mixed
CATTLE: Weaker corn prices and mostly favorable cash markets may boost cattle futures. Live steers in five top U.S. feedlot areas yesterday averaged $121.44, up from last week’s average of $120.77, USDA data showed. Choice cutout values yesterday averaged $275.22, up $2.06 from Wednesday and the seventh consecutive daily gain since the market hit a 3 1/2-month low last week. Meatpackers slaughtered an estimated 477,000 head of cattle so far this week, up 2.1% from the same period last week and up 0.6% from the same period a year ago.
HOGS: Cash market fundamentals remain mostly supportive for futures. Carcass cutout values yesterday averaged $123.87, down $1.10 for the day but still up 1.2% for the week and near six-week highs, according to USDA data. Carcasses on national direct markets yesterday averaged $102.58, down $1.22. Meatpackers slaughtered an estimated 1.88 million head of hogs so far this week, up 0.4% from the same period last week and but down 0.6% from the same period a year ago.