GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 2 to 4 cents higher; HRW steady to 2 cents lower; HRS 3 to 5 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Grains led strength overnight while soybeans favored the downside for the most part, but did see a substantial uptick in buying interest going into the break. Soybeans are trading near key 40-day moving average support, a key level to watch today. Outside markets are quiet this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly lower while the U.S. dollar index is trading near steady.
USDA reported daily export sales of 132,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China in the 2025-26 marketing year.
The National Weather Service today said the forecast remains on track for a prolonged atmospheric river to usher in several days of heavy rainfall over the Pacific Northwest. Beginning this morning, rainfall coverage and intensity is expected to increase across coastal Washington and Oregon as a potent slug of sub-tropical moisture begins to flow inland along a strong Pacific jet. Rainfall aside, parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and Northern Plains and can also expect a period of gusty winds today and Tuesday as the same Pacific jet develops a strong clipper system in the Canadian Rockies. As this clipper system ejects eastward into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest late Tuesday, wintry weather should develop along the northern flank of the low center. While there remains uncertainty in forecast amounts, at least a few inches of snowfall and freezing rain are possible roughly along a Fargo, N.D. to Grand Rapids, MI. line.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Fox TV Sunday that China has been complying with the terms of the bilateral trade agreements and that the U.S. is constantly monitoring commitments made by China in a bid to maintain a stable trade relationship. “With China, it’s always we verify and we monitor and we watch the commitments. The commitments are quite specific,” Greer said on Fox News’ The Sunday Briefing and as reported by Bloomberg. “So all of these things that we’ve agreed to with the Chinese recently are very concrete, we can monitor them with some ease, and so far, we’re seeing that they’re in compliance.” Greer said China has gotten approximately “a third” of the way through its soybean purchase commitment for this growing season.
China’s shipments to the U.S. slumped by 28.6% in November, marking the eighth straight month of double-digit declines. China’s overall trade surplus widened to $111.68 billion in November, up from $97.33 billion in the same month last year and surpassing expectations of $100.2 billion. It marked the largest trade surplus since June, as exports rose more than imports. China’s exports increased 5.9%, year-on-year, beating forecasts for 3.8% growth and rebounding from a 1.1% fall in October, boosted by a surge in shipments to non-U.S. markets amid China’s efforts to diversify export destinations and to deepen trade ties with ASEAN and EU countries. Through the first 11 months of the year, China’s trade surplus topped $1 trillion.
CORN: December corn struggled to topple 200-day moving average resistance at $4.46 3/4 overnight. Additional strength eyes psychological $4.50 resistance, while support comes in at $4.45 then $4.42 3/4.
SOYBEANS: January soybeans saw followthrough selling early overnight, but have since recovered early losses. Resistance stands at $11.19 on persistent strength. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $11.05 1/2 with additional support at the psychological $11.00 mark.
WHEAT: March SRW futures continue to trade in a tight sideways range. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $5.40 on persistent strength while support comes in at $5.30 on a push lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeder cattle futures are poised to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of recent strength, though overbought conditions could limit gains after the open. The technical posture has quickly turned to favor the bulls and cash cattle trade is supportive of the change in the dynamic. Cash trade into Friday averaged $220.02, sharply up from the prior week’s average at $211.53. Wholesale beef ended Friday lower with choice falling $1.52 to $351.20 while select slid $2.93 to $347.39.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of last week’s strength, though technical resistance at the 40-day moving average could limit gains after the open. The CME lean hog index is down 2 cents to $81.81 as of Dec. 4 as the seasonal slid starts to wind down. Traders anticipate a bottom is close at hand as December futures settled Friday just below the index. Pork cutout rose $3.06 to $96.39 Friday, led by gains in butts and picnics, though all cuts posted gains.