GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Wheat: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Consolidation was featured across the grain and soy markets overnight following recent heavy selling pressure. Positioning is likely to begin driving trade ahead of Monday’s key USDA reports. Outside markets are modestly supportive this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly firmer while the U.S. dollar index is around 380 points lower.
USDA reported daily export sales of soybeans totaling 110,000 for delivery to Egypt during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Trade negotiations between the U.S. and India have reached a major impasse, casting doubt on prospects for a bilateral agreement ahead of President Donald Trump’s July 9 deadline to impose new reciprocal tariffs, Reuters reports. Indian officials say both sides remain divided over import duties on auto components, steel and agricultural products. India is pressing for a rollback of the proposed 26% U.S. reciprocal tariff and seeking relief from existing U.S. duties on Indian steel and auto parts. However, U.S. negotiators have rejected these requests and are demanding deeper tariff cuts by India on U.S. farm goods — including soybeans and corn — as well as on automobiles and alcoholic beverages and are seeking eased non-tariff barriers. An Indian delegation is expected to travel to Washington before the deadline, but sources caution that negotiations may shift toward a broader deal rather than a rushed interim pact. Despite previous optimism — including Trump’s suggestion that India was open to a “no tariffs” arrangement for U.S. goods — progress has been minimal. Indian negotiators stress they are “keen, but not desperate” to conclude a deal before July 9. A breakthrough could still occur if Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump intervene directly.
U.S. biodiesel producers are warning of a potential industry-wide collapse unless Congress acts quickly to extend the expired $1.00 per gallon biodiesel blenders’ tax credit (BTC), which lapsed at the end of 2024. Trade organizations — including the Sustainable Advanced Biofuel Refiners and the National Association of Truck Stop Owners — say a policy gap between the expiration of BTC and the delayed start of its replacement, the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit, threatens to shutter much of the nation’s biofuel production. A bipartisan coalition in Congress is now pressing to extend BTC through at least 2025.
Export sales for the week ended June 19:
- Corn: Net sales of 741,200 MT for 2024-25 were down 18% from the previous week and 17% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Colombia, Japan and Mexico. Sales came in the middle of pre-report expectations ranging from 500,000 MT to 1.2 MMT.
- Soybeans: Net sales of 402,900 MT for 2024-25, down 16% from the previous week but up 83% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for the Netherlands, Mexico and Egypt. Sales were in the middle of pre-report expectations ranging from 200,000 to 600,000 MT.
- Wheat: Sales totaled 255,200 MT for 2025-26 and were primarily for Japan and Mexico. Sales came in below pre-report expectations ranging from 300,000 to 600,000 MT.
CORN: December corn futures saw modest corrective strength overnight. Bulls are seeking to topple psychological resistance at $4.25 before tackling resistance at $4.30. Support comes in at the overnight contract low of $4.19 1/4.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures saw profit-taking overnight. Continued strength finds resistance at $10.25 while strength above that mark targets resistance at $10.30. Support comes in at $10.20 then the overnight low of $10.16.
WHEAT: September SRW futures saw some consolidation overnight. Support comes in at $5.41 on continued selling, which is reinforced by support at $5.37 3/4. Resistance stands at the psychological $5.50 mark on a bounce.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of recent weakness. Cash cattle trade initiated mid-week, though movement remains light. Trade initiated at $230.83, indicating another week-over-week drop seems likely. Futures are pricing in a period of price pressure in the cash market, though discounts are steep, which could limit continued selling pressure. Wholesale beef ended Wednesday mixed, as Choice inched 69 cents higher to $394.94 while Select slid $6.12 to $376.29. USDA reported net beef sales of 14,100 MT for 2025, which were up 20% from the previous week and 11% from the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of yesterday’s strength. Some positioning is likely to drive trade ahead of this afternoons Hogs & Pigs report. Analysts expect USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report this afternoon to show the U.S. hog herd contracted 0.4% from year-ago as of June 1, based on a Reuters survey. Key will be any revisions USDA makes to past data. The CME lean hog index is up another 97 cents to $111.41 as of June 24. Pork cutout inched a quarter higher on Wednesday, led by strength in bellies. USDA reported net pork sales of 54,400 MT for 2025, up 82% from the previous week and 96% from the four-week average. Mexico led purchases.