GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Wheat: 4 to 6 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Grains saw relative weakness overnight while soybeans saw action on either side of unchanged. Bulls are looking to rebound from weakness seen earlier this week, but volatility has been relatively low so far this week. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher while the U.S. dollar index is up around 250 points.
The National Weather Service today reported a series of disturbances from the western U.S. will interact with moisture spreading through the southern Plains, producing storms with heavy rainfall and scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding over the central Rockies and high Plains Wednesday and Thursday, which spread east through Kansas into northwest Arkansas on Wednesday and shift into the vicinity of Arkansas on Thursday. By Friday, thunderstorms with heavy rain across the high Plains and near the Gulf Coast are expected. Apart from the Northwest and the Gulf Coast states, daytime temperatures are expected to be seasonal to below average across much of the contiguous U.S. Temperatures may dip to more than 15 degrees below average in some spots, particularly where it is raining persistently across portions of Kansas and Arkansas Wednesday and Thursday and in the vicinity of Ohio on Friday. Record lows are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic, and Northeast Wednesday night/Thursday morning.
China, the world’s number-one soybean importer, doesn’t appear to have bought a single U.S. cargo for the coming year, just days before the start of the new U.S. marketing year, said Bloomberg today. China imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans in March, making exports to China less price-competitive, globally, and Chinese buyers are standing pat as the two governments negotiate an end to trade hostilities. China’s soybean crushers have already purchased large quantities of Brazilian soybeans in the past few months, with more on the way. Arrivals in the next three months are expected at over 30 million MT, according to Chinese commodities consultancy Mysteel.
The U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods imported into the U.S. to punish the country for buying Russian oil, “upending a decades-long push by Washington to forge closer ties with New Delhi,” reported Bloomberg. The new tariffs will hit more than 55% of Indian goods shipped to the U.S. and hurt labor-intensive industries like textiles and jewelry the most, while key exports like electronics and pharmaceuticals are exempt.
CORN: December corn saw additional consolidation overnight. Prices are near key support at $4.07 which is reinforced by support at $4.03 1/4. Resistance stands at $4.13 1/2, the 40-day moving average, on resurgent strength.
SOYBEANS: November soybeans saw action on either side of unchanged overnight. Support comes in at $10.42 3/4 on persistent selling, while bulls are looking to break prices back above $10.50 on strength.
WHEAT: December SRW wheat led weakness overnight. Bulls struggled and failed to topple 20-day moving average resistance the past two sessions, which remains key resistance at $5.33 1 /2. Support comes in at the psychological $5.25 mark then $5.21 1/4 on persistent selling pressure.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Cattle futures are expected to open higher in a continuation of recent strength. Futures hit fresh highs on Tuesday and cash fundamentals remain fully supportive of higher prices. Cash cattle initiated at $245.00 early in the week, indicating another week of record strength in the cash market is likely. Choice beef surged another $4.68 to $413.17 Tuesday while Select jumped $5.38 to $390.76, with movement totaling an impressive 106 loads.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher in a continuation of Tuesday’s strength. The technical posture now favors the bulls in the hog market with prices seeing robust gains on Tuesday, fueled by strength in the cattle market. Beef pushing to record highs at the meat counter is likely to lift pork demand this fall even as the summer grilling season comes to an unofficial end this weekend. The CME lean hog index is down another 41 cents to $106.86 as of August 25. Pork cutout slipped $1.12 to $113.05 on Tuesday, led by losses in picnics.