It is rare for soybeans to see no strength during the summer months, with only four years since 1980 not boasting a summer rally in November futures. We define summer as beginning on June 1 with rallies forced to end on Oct. 1 for soybeans, a month later than our corn study, which we looked at a month ago. Most years have one rally and some years have multiple. This study will act as a guide as to how to take advantage of a rally and we will come back to it as summer progresses. If soybeans continue their recent uptrend, they are likely to qualify right away.
Last year, a rally did not occur until mid-August. The most recent year without a rally was 2014. There have been 52 summer rallies over the last 45 years; 21 of those started in the first three weeks of June. Looking at only the first rally of summer, the average starting date was June 24 and concluded July 22, averaging about 27 days.
The duration of the rally is not necessarily indicative of how much prices could strengthen. For example, in 2011 there was a 26-day rally in which prices went up just 7%, while in 2022 there was an 8-day rally that saw futures surge 13%. The average gain for all first summer rallies is 16.4%, though that skewed higher by years that see big gains. The median gain from 1980 to 2024 was 13.4%.
