USDA released its 10-year baseline projections that “reflect a composite of model results and judgment-based analyses and were prepared during August through October 2022. The projections are based on specific assumptions about macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments, with no domestic or external shocks to global agricultural markets.” The complete baseline projections will be released in February. Following are USDA’s initial assumptions for 2023-24.
Corn: USDA projects plantings will rise to 92.0 million acres, which would push production to 15.265 billion bu. and ending stocks to 1.712 billion bushels. The average cash price is projected to drop to $5.70.
Soybeans: USDA projects plantings at 87.0 million acres and production at 4.480 billion bushels. Ending stocks are expected to rise to 226 million bu. and the average price would fall to $13.00.
Wheat: USDA projects all-wheat plantings will rise to 47.5 million acres, which would push production to 1.919 billion bu. and ending stocks to 663 million bushels. The average cash price is projected to drop to $8.00.
Cotton: USDA projects upland cotton plantings will fall to 9.5 million acres, though production is expected to climb to 13.9 million bales amid increases in harvested acres and yield. USDA projects ending stocks will tighten to 2.65 million bales and the average cash price will fall to 80 cents.
Click here to view USDA’s full assessment of baseline projections as of October.