USDA raises food price forecasts for 2022 and 2023

USDA raised its forecasts for food price inflation in 2022 and 2023 from their September forecasts, now seeing 2022 prices for all food rising 9.5% to 10.5% (9% to 10% prior), food at home (grocery store) prices jumping 11% to 12% (10.5% to 11.5% prior) and food away from home (restaurant) prices rising 7% to 8% (6.5% to 7.5% prior).

Pork prices increased by 1.1% in September, despite high domestic pork production and low demand for U.S. pork from Asia. Pork prices are now predicted to increase between 8.5% and 9.5% in 2022.

Retail egg prices decreased 3.5% in September but were 30.5% higher than last year. The ongoing outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) reduced the U.S. egg-layer flock by almost 5 million birds in September, as well as the poultry flock to a lesser extent. USDA projects egg prices will increase between 26.5% and 27.5% this year.

Fresh vegetable prices increased by 1.7% in September following a 1.0% increase in August, reaching a 9.2% annual rise. Processed fruits and vegetables and the aggregate category of fruits and vegetables also increased by 1.6% and 1.4%, respectively. Fresh vegetables prices are now predicted to increase between 5.5% and 6.5%, processed fruits and vegetables prices are predicted to increase between 11.0% and 12.0%, and prices for the aggregate category of fruits and vegetables are predicted to increase between 7.5% and 8.5% this year.

USDA forecasts prices for sugar and sweets will increase between 9.5% and 10.5% and nonalcoholic beverages prices are predicted to rise between 10.0% and 11.0%.

While USDA still sees smaller increases in 2023, the agency upped its forecasts to all food prices to rise 3% to 4% (2.5% to 3.5% prior), grocery store prices to increase 2.5% to 3.5% (2% to 3% prior) and restaurant prices to jump 4% to 5% (3% to 4% prior).

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