USDA Jan. 12 report preview – Slew of data coming

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USDA’s January crop reports tend to swiftly move markets since there’s so much data. Much of the focus is typically on USDA’s “final” crop estimates for corn and soybeans, though only modest changes are expected this year. Dec. 1 grain stocks have a history of providing market-moving surprises, especially for corn. Given the big (potentially record) 2021 corn and soybean crops, there is risk USDA finds more bushels than traders expect as of Dec. 1. Traders will also get winter wheat seedings, along with monthly U.S. and global balance sheets. The reports will be released at 11 a.m. CT on Wednesday. Following are pre-report estimates from a Reuters survey (except for cotton, which is from Bloomberg).

Expectations for 2021
U.S. Production

                Corn     

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Harvested acres (mil.)

Average est.

15.069

177.0

85.186

Range

14.932-15.347

175.5-179.0

84.700-86.400

USDA Nov. est.

15.062

177.0

85.085

 

Soybeans

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Harvested acres (mil.)

Average est.

4.433

51.3

86.447

Range

4.396-4.484

50.9-51.9

86.000-86.911

USDA Nov. est.

4.425

51.2

86.436

 

Cotton

 

Production
(mil. bales)

Yield
(lbs. per acre)

Harvested acres (mil.)

Average est.

18.24

NA

NA

Range

18.04-18.40

NA

NA

USDA Dec. est.

18.28

885

9.92

 

 

Expectations for
U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

 

2021-22

Average est.

1.472

Range

1.386-1.550

USDA December

1.493

 

Soybeans – million bushels

 

2021-22

Average est.

348

Range

305-411

USDA December

340

 

Wheat – million bushels

 

2021-22

Average est.

608

Range

580-638

USDA December

598

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2021-22

Average est.

3.46

Range

3.00-3.85

USDA December

3.40

 

Expectations for
Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

 

2021-22

Average est.

304.08

Range

302.00-307.00

USDA December

305.54

 

Soybeans – MMT

 

2021-22

Average est.

99.93

Range

95.00-103.55

USDA December

102.00

 

Wheat – MMT

 

2021-22

Average est.

278.67

Range

274.95-280.50

USDA December

278.18

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2021-22

Average est.

85.61

Range

84.00-86.50

USDA December

85.73

 

 

Expectations for
Quarterly Grain Stocks Report

Corn – billion bu.

Average est. for Dec. 1, 2021

11.602

Range

11.200-11.951

USDA Sept. 1, 2021

1.236

USDA Dec. 1, 2020

11.294

 

Soybeans – billion bu.

Average est. for Dec. 1, 2021

3.129

Range

2.975-3.227

USDA Sept. 1, 2021

0.256

USDA Dec. 1, 2020

2.947

 

Wheat – billion bu.

Average est. for Dec. 1, 2021

1.421

Range

1.315-1.690

USDA Sept. 1, 2021

1.780

USDA Dec. 1, 2020

1.703

 

Expectations for
Winter Wheat Seedings

All winter wheat – million acres

Average est.

34.255

Range

33.400-35.550

USDA final 2021

33.648

 

HRW wheat – million acres

Average est.

24.034

Range

23.400-24.970

USDA final 2021

23.494

 

SRW wheat – million acres

Average est.

6.555

Range

5.790-7.000

USDA final 2021

6.648

 

White winter wheat – million acres

Average est.

3.577

Range

3.418-4.000

USDA final 2021

3.506

 

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