USDA Jan. 12 report preview – Slew of data coming
USDA’s January crop reports tend to swiftly move markets since there’s so much data. Much of the focus is typically on USDA’s “final” crop estimates for corn and soybeans, though only modest changes are expected this year. Dec. 1 grain stocks have a history of providing market-moving surprises, especially for corn. Given the big (potentially record) 2021 corn and soybean crops, there is risk USDA finds more bushels than traders expect as of Dec. 1. Traders will also get winter wheat seedings, along with monthly U.S. and global balance sheets. The reports will be released at 11 a.m. CT on Wednesday. Following are pre-report estimates from a Reuters survey (except for cotton, which is from Bloomberg).
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Expectations for 2021 |
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|
Corn |
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Production |
Yield |
Harvested acres (mil.) |
|
|
Average est. |
15.069 |
177.0 |
85.186 |
|
Range |
14.932-15.347 |
175.5-179.0 |
84.700-86.400 |
|
USDA Nov. est. |
15.062 |
177.0 |
85.085 |
|
Soybeans |
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Production |
Yield |
Harvested acres (mil.) |
|
Average est. |
4.433 |
51.3 |
86.447 |
|
Range |
4.396-4.484 |
50.9-51.9 |
86.000-86.911 |
|
USDA Nov. est. |
4.425 |
51.2 |
86.436 |
|
Cotton |
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|
Production |
Yield |
Harvested acres (mil.) |
|
|
Average est. |
18.24 |
NA |
NA |
|
Range |
18.04-18.40 |
NA |
NA |
|
USDA Dec. est. |
18.28 |
885 |
9.92 |
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Expectations for |
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|
Corn – billion bushels |
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|
2021-22 |
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|
Average est. |
1.472 |
|
Range |
1.386-1.550 |
|
USDA December |
1.493 |
|
Soybeans – million bushels |
|
|
2021-22 |
|
|
Average est. |
348 |
|
Range |
305-411 |
|
USDA December |
340 |
|
|
|
|
Wheat – million bushels |
|
|
2021-22 |
|
|
Average est. |
608 |
|
Range |
580-638 |
|
USDA December |
598 |
|
|
|
|
Cotton – million bales |
|
|
2021-22 |
|
|
Average est. |
3.46 |
|
Range |
3.00-3.85 |
|
USDA December |
3.40 |
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Expectations for |
|
|
Corn – MMT |
|
|
|
2021-22 |
|
Average est. |
304.08 |
|
Range |
302.00-307.00 |
|
USDA December |
305.54 |
|
Soybeans – MMT |
|
|
|
2021-22 |
|
Average est. |
99.93 |
|
Range |
95.00-103.55 |
|
USDA December |
102.00 |
|
Wheat – MMT |
|
|
|
2021-22 |
|
Average est. |
278.67 |
|
Range |
274.95-280.50 |
|
USDA December |
278.18 |
|
Cotton – million bales |
|
|
|
2021-22 |
|
Average est. |
85.61 |
|
Range |
84.00-86.50 |
|
USDA December |
85.73 |
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Expectations for |
|
|
Corn – billion bu. |
|
|
Average est. for Dec. 1, 2021 |
11.602 |
|
Range |
11.200-11.951 |
|
USDA Sept. 1, 2021 |
1.236 |
|
USDA Dec. 1, 2020 |
11.294 |
|
|
|
|
Soybeans – billion bu. |
|
|
Average est. for Dec. 1, 2021 |
3.129 |
|
Range |
2.975-3.227 |
|
USDA Sept. 1, 2021 |
0.256 |
|
USDA Dec. 1, 2020 |
2.947 |
|
|
|
|
Wheat – billion bu. |
|
|
Average est. for Dec. 1, 2021 |
1.421 |
|
Range |
1.315-1.690 |
|
USDA Sept. 1, 2021 |
1.780 |
|
USDA Dec. 1, 2020 |
1.703 |
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Expectations for |
|
|
All winter wheat – million acres |
|
|
Average est. |
34.255 |
|
Range |
33.400-35.550 |
|
USDA final 2021 |
33.648 |
|
|
|
|
HRW wheat – million acres |
|
|
Average est. |
24.034 |
|
Range |
23.400-24.970 |
|
USDA final 2021 |
23.494 |
|
|
|
|
SRW wheat – million acres |
|
|
Average est. |
6.555 |
|
Range |
5.790-7.000 |
|
USDA final 2021 |
6.648 |
|
|
|
|
White winter wheat – million acres |
|
|
Average est. |
3.577 |
|
Range |
3.418-4.000 |
|
USDA final 2021 |
3.506 |
