USDA inches up 2024 food price forecast

USDA forecasts food prices will rise 1.3% this year, with food away from home (restaurant) prices expected to increase 4.7% and food at home (grocery store) prices projected to decline 0.4%. In December, USDA forecast all food prices would increase 1.2%, with restaurant prices projected to rise 4.9% while grocery store costs were seen declining 0.6%. That would still be the smallest annual increase in overall food prices since they rose 0.9% in 2017 and the steepest decline in grocery prices when they fell 1.3% in 2016.

In 2023, food prices increased by 5.8%. Food-at-home prices rose by 5.0%, while food-away-from-home prices jumped by 7.1%.

Beef and veal prices are predicted to increase 5.8% in 2024, the highest growth of any category as prices remain elevated following consistent growth in 2023. USDA expects pork to decrease 1.4% this year. Egg prices are projected to decrease 4.6% in 2024, though USDA noted impacts from outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza will be monitored closely and could affect prices.