U.S. cattle herd shrinks to smallest in eight years

USDA estimated the U.S. cattle herd at 89.274 million head as of Jan. 1, down 2.803 million head (3.0%) from last year. The beef cow herd dropped 1.065 million head (3.6%) to 28.918 million head. The 2022 calf crop was estimated at 34.465 million head, down 701,000 head (2.0%) from the previous year. The total cattle herd and last year’s calf crop were the smallest in eight years. The beef cow herd was the smallest since 1962.
 

The number of beef heifers expected to calve in 2023 dropped 171,000 head (5.1%) and total beef replacement heifers declined 318,000 head (5.8%). That was the smallest number of heifers held back for breeding since 2011, largely because so many were moved into feedlots. Combined with the smaller beef cow inventory, the 2023 calf crop will continue to shrink.

The milk cow herd at 9.403 million head rose 26,000 head (0.2%) from year-ago. But milk replacement heifers declined 104,000 head (2.3%).

Based on the cow herd size and number of heifers being held back for breeding, the total U.S. cattle herd is likely to decline another 1.1 million head as of Jan. 1, 2024.

Compared to pre-report expectations, the report data is largely neutral. But the underlying data is bullish as the U.S. cattle herd further contracted – and will continue to do so.