Smaller corn, soybean crop estimates expected Sept. 12... Analysts fully expect USDA to cut its corn crop estimate in the Sept. 12 Crop Production Report, with the average forecast down 271 million bu. for production and 2.9 bu. per acre for yield from last month. Analysts are split on soybeans, though the average estimate is down 35 million bu. on crop size and 0.4 bu. per acre for yield.
Perspective: The September estimates will include USDA’s first objective yield (field) samples for corn and soybeans. NASS also announced it has sufficient data to adjust corn and soybean acreage — if warranted. We don’t expect any major changes on corn acreage, though we expect a 500,000-acre increase for soybeans. If USDA uses historical corn ear weights, the estimate isn’t likely to fall as much from last month as some anticipate.
Expectations for 2022 | |||
Corn | |||
Production | Yield | Harvested acres (mil.) | |
Average est. | 14.088 | 172.5 | 81.686 |
Range | 13.895 - 14.307 | 170.6 – 174.9 | 80.971 - 82.113 |
USDA Aug.. | 14.359 | 175.4 | 81.840 |
Soybeans | |||
| Production | Yield | Harvested acres (mil.) |
Average est. | 4.496 | 51.5 | 87.288 |
Range | 4.441 - 4.568 | 50.7 - 52.0 | 86.576 – 87.900 |
USDA Aug. | 4.531 | 51.9 | 87.211 |
Cotton | |||
Production | Yield | Harvested acres (mil.) | |
Average est. | 12.77 | NA | NA |
Range | 12.20 – 13.50 | NA | NA |
USDA Aug. | 12.570 | 846 | 7.129 |
USDA is expected to mildly increase U.S. old-crop ending stocks for corn and soybeans. For 2022-23 ending stocks, the average trade estimate is down 171 million bu. for corn, up 2 million bu. for soybeans and up 8 million bu. for wheat from last month’s projections.
Expectations for U.S. Carryover | ||
Corn – billion bushels | ||
2021-22 | 2022-23 | |
Average est. | 1.547 | 1.217 |
Range | 1.500 – 1.580 | 0.980 – 1.412 |
USDA August | 1.530 | 1.388 |
| ||
Soybeans – million bushels | ||
2021-22 | 2022-23 | |
Average est. | 236 | 247 |
Range | 215 - 265 | 203 - 335 |
USDA August | 225 | 245 |
|
| |
Wheat – million bushels | ||
2021-22 | 2022-23 | |
Average est. | NA | 618 |
Range | NA | 594 - 650 |
USDA August | 660 | 610 |
|
| |
Cotton – million bales | ||
2021-22 | 2022-23 | |
Average est. | NA | 1.86 |
Range | NA | 1.50 – 2.50 |
USDA August | 3.50 | 1.80 |
Expectations for Global Carryover | ||
Corn – MMT | ||
| 2021-22 | 2022-23 |
Average est. | NA | 302.29 |
Range | NA | 296.90 – 305.90 |
USDA August | 311.84 | 306.68 |
| ||
Soybeans – MMT | ||
| 2021-22 | 2022-23 |
Average est. | NA | 101.19 |
Range | NA | 98.20 – 103.00 |
USDA August | 89.73 | 101.41 |
| ||
Wheat – MMT | ||
| 2021-22 | 2022-23 |
Average est. | NA | 268.10 |
Range | NA | 263.60 – 274.00 |
USDA August | 276.35 | 267.34 |
| ||
Cotton – million bales | ||
| 2021-22 | 2022-23 |
Average est. | NA | 82.56 |
Range | NA | 81.20 – 84.00 |
USDA August | 84.72 | 82.77 |