For the eighth time in 2025, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral 50.0, according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.
Overall: The region’s overall reading for October fell to 34.6, its lowest level since May 2020, from 38.5 in September. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.
“Weak agriculture commodity prices for grain producers continue to dampen economic activity in the 10-state region. While tariffs are producing higher economic volatility, 72% of bank CEOs gauge President Trump’s approach toward Chinese trade as ‘about right.’ This is almost unchanged from April, when the same question was asked,” says Creighton University’s Dr. Ernie Goss, who conducts the survey.
According to Jeff Bonnett, President of Havana National Bank in Havana, Ill., “We are definitely experiencing the pains of the ag crisis (defined as a time of intense difficulty, trouble or danger).”
Farming and ranch land prices: For the 17th time in the past 18 months, farmland prices slumped below growth neutral. The region’s farmland price dropped to 37.0 from 45.8 in September. “Elevated long-term interest rates, higher input costs and below breakeven grain prices put downward pressure on farmland prices,” states Goss.
Farm loan delinquency rates rose from a very low 1.1% in June of this year to 1.6% this month.
Approximately, 84.6% of bankers support President Trump’s calling for $10 billion in support to U.S. farmers. “Current gain prices have pushed a high share of farmers’ net cash flow into negative territory. While it will not cure the problem, it will help,” says Goss.
Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index increased to a very weak 18.8 from 15.2 in September. “This is the 26th straight month the index has fallen below growth neutral. High input costs, tighter credit conditions, low farm commodity prices and market volatility from tariffs are having negative impacts on purchases of farm equipment,” observes Goss.
Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The October confidence index remained at September’s 32.7.
Creighton University says the survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally -- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The RMI covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300.