According to the latest monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) dropped below growth neutral for March to its lowest level since October 2025.
Overall: The region’s overall reading for March plummeted to 40.9 from February’s 47.9. This marks the 13th time since January 2025 that the index has moved below the growth neutral threshold. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.
“Weakness in farm commodity prices and elevated agriculture input costs are spilling over into the business community. Approximately, 27.2% of bankers report small businesses in their area were experiencing declines in business activity,” says Dr. Ernie Goss, PhD, Creighton University.
Farming and ranchland prices: After falling below growth neutral for January and February, the March farm and ranchland index rose to 50.2 from 45.5 in February. “Farm and ranchland prices have been holding up much better than farm income,” notes Goss.
Jim Eckert, Executive VP and Trust Officer of Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Illinois, reports “Recent rains in our area have improved farmers’ moods, but subsoil moisture is very low, and timely rains will be needed to raise the 2026 crops.”
Farm equipment sales: The March farm equipment sales index increased to a very weak 28.6 from 16.7 in February. “This is the 31st straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. “The 2026 conflict in Iran has created even more volatility in the agricultural sector, primarily impacting agricultural equipment sales by tightening farmer operating margins, increasing input costs and shifting farmer planting decisions,” says Goss.
Banking: The March loan volume index soared to 78.6 from February’s 54.3. The checking deposit index climbed to 64.3 from 60.9 in February. The region’s index for certificates of deposits (CDs) increased to 52.4 from 50.0 in February.
Despite weak farm income, farm loan delinquency rates remain well contained with more than half, or 52.4%, indicating no change or even declines in delinquency rates, with 47.6% reporting that loan delinquency rates increased modestly.
According to Jeff Bonnett, CEO of Havana National Bank in Havana, Illinois, “The communities we serve are totally dependent on the Ag economy. That said, our small businesses on Main Street are suffering along with our grain producers. We are now in our fourth year of tough local economic times due to this sustained downturn in the Ag economy.”
Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The March confidence index plunged to 29.5 from 45.8 in February, which was the highest reading since March 2022. “In spite of $12 billion of federal farm support, weak grain prices, higher input prices and expected negative farm cash flows continued to weigh on banker confidence,” observes Goss.
The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index that covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300.