From The Rows | Aug. 23, 2023 — Brian Grete (East)
Eastern Tour – Day 3
My route took me north out of Bloomington through crop districts 4 (central) and 1 (northwest) Illinois. Our average yield was 201.4 bu. per acre, with a range of 148.9 bu. to 238.3 bushels. Seven of our 10 samples were above 200 bu., with the only real clunker the low one of the day. That was a dryland sample from Whiteside County that was in an area that was heavily irrigated... and the pivots were actively running given the heat. Despite the solid average yield, there was variability in the fields and the three ears we pulled from each sample spot, which kept the yield from being higher.
Pod counts in a 3’x3’ square averaged 1234.4 along my route, with a range from 734.4 to 1636.8. Aside from those two samples, the rest were all clustered in the 1040 to 1498 range. Soybean pod counts were rather consistent and the crop was clean.
One noticeable feature from our stops today was soil moisture. Soils got decidedly drier as we moved northwest through western Illinois. Crop maturity was also much more advanced than what we saw the first two days in Indiana and Ohio. Each of our corn samples was fully dented and soybeans had started to fill. As a result, we measured more actual yield for corn than the potential we measured the first two days.
Final Day 3 observations
USDA estimated the corn yield would decrease 6.1% from last year, while the soybean yield is expected to drop 1.6%. Our Crop Tour findings went the opposite direction, with both rising from last year.
Our corn yield in Illinois was 193.72 bu. per acre, up 1.6% versus what we found on Crop Tour last year and 0.8% above the three-year average. On average since 2001, Crop Tour has been 3.5 bu. below USDA’s final yield. If you add the average “miss” to this year’s Crop Tour figure, it would give you 197.22. But over the past 10 years, our average miss in Illinois has been 9.5 bu., including misses well above that level in 2017, 2018 and 2022. And in years when Illinois has a yield above 200 bu. per acre, our average miss is 13.9 bu. per acre. Adding those two figures to our Illinois Crop Tour yield would be 203.22 bu. and 207.62 bu., respectively.
Soybean pod counts in a 3’x 3’ square in Illinois averaged 1270.61, up 1.7% from last year’s Tour results.
Illinois has strong corn and soybean crops. This week’s heat will push them along, so Illinois may not live up to its full potential when combines roll, but the state built big yields ahead of the extreme heat.
