The U.S. government shutdown is now entering its second week with negotiations at a standstill. In the absence of official USDA reports, newswires have polled agricultural analysts on their expectations for what the report would have included.
Corn harvest is estimated at 3% behind last year’s progress, but still above the 41% five-year average. Soybean harvest is following a similar trend, with analysts expecting it to trail last years breakneck harvest pace but remaining above recent longer-term trends. While weather has been mostly dry and allowed for good harvest progress, there have been some delays caused by intermittent rains. Those intermittent rains have allowed for good seeding opportunities for winter wheat, especially in the plains. Ample soil moisture should promote good tillering and emergence, and the forecast over the next 10 days is generally favorable for fieldwork to continue in most of the U.S.
The corn condition is estimated at 64% good or excellent, down 1% from last week and in line with where it was rated in 2024. Soybeans were rated 61% good to excellent, unchanged from last week. Condition data on soybeans from this week last year is unavailable, as USDA generally does not survey for crop conditions after the harvest is over 50% complete.