Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading near around 4 cents higher, soybeans were around a dime higher, wheat futures were down 2 to 4 cents and cotton was around unchanged.
As of 11:30 a.m. CT, corn is trading 1 to 3 cents higher, soybeans are around 10 cents higher, wheat is around1 to 4 cents lower and cotton is around 5 points higher.
U.S. crop production
Corn: 16.814 billion bu.; trade expected 16.502 billion bu.— compares to 16.742 billion bu. projected in August; 14.867 billion bu. in 2024.
Beans: 4.301 billion bu.; trade expected 4.262 billion bu.— compares to 4.292 billion bu. projected in August; 4.367 billion bu. in 2024.
Cotton: 13.224 million bales; trade expected 13.54 million bales— compares to 13.214 million bales projected in August; 14.413 million bales in 2024.
USDA raised their production estimate 72 million bu. from last month. It decreased yield 2.1 bu. to 186.7 bu. per acre. Harvested acres were unexpectedly increased to 90.047 million acres, up 1.356 million from August. That comes amid a 1.474 million acre increase in planted acres to 98.728 million acres. Yields were decreased in Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio and South Dakota. Yield was unchanged in Indiana and Michigan.
Across the Corn belt, yields are estimated at 219 bu. per acre in Illinois, 205 bu. in Indiana, 219 bu. in Iowa, 136 bu. in Kansas, 180 bu. in Michigan, 199 bu. in Minnesota, 184 bu. in Missouri, 191 bu. in Nebraska, 145 bu. in North Dakota, 194 bu. in Ohio, 167 bu. in South Dakota and 184 bu. in Wisconsin.
USDA objective yield data indicated ear counts were down from last September. Still, a record yield is forecast, implying record ear weights for the second consecutive year. Ear counts were up in Illinois, Minnesota, and Nebraska. Ear counts were down in Indiana, Iowa and South Dakota. Counts were steady in Ohio.
USDA increased its soybean production estimate 8.5 million bu. from last month. USDA decreased yield 0.1 bu. to 53.5 bu. per acre. USDA increased harvested acres 0.209 million acres to 80.313 million acres amid a 0.210 million acre increase to planted acres (to 81.135 million acres). USDA’s objective yield data for the combined 11 major soybean-producing states (Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, and South Dakota) indicated a higher pod count than last year (1,923 pods per 18 square feet versus 1,746 last year).
Compared to last month, USDA increased yields in Iowa (to 65 bu. per acre), Kansas (to 39 bu. per acre), Nebraska (to 61 bu. per acre), North Dakota (to 37 bu. per acre) and Wisconsin (to 55 bu. per acre). USDA decreased yields in Indiana (to 61 bu. per acre), Missouri (51 bu. per acre) and Ohio (to 56 bu. per acre). Yields were steady in Illinois (65 bu. per acre), Michigan (52 bu. per acre), Minnesota (53 bu. per acre) and South Dakota (47 bu. per acre).
USDA unexpectedly cut cotton production 299,000 bales from last month. The average yield was reduced 5 lbs. to 862 lbs. per acre. Harvested area increased 13,000 acres to 7.369 million acres. USDA increased yield in both Texas (to 693 lbs. per acre) and Georgia (to 896 lbs. per acre).
U.S. carryover
Corn: 1.325 billion bu. for 2024-25, up from 1.305 billion bu. in August
— 2.110 billion bu. for 2025-26, down from 2.117 billion bu. in August
Beans: 330 million bu. for 2024-25, unch from 330 million bu. in August
— 300 million bu. for 2025-26, up from 290 million bu. in August
Wheat: 844 million bu. for 2025-26, down from 869 million bu. in August
Cotton: 4.0 million bales for 2024-25, unch from 4.0 million bales in August
— 3.6 million bales for 2025-26, unch from 3.6 million bales in August
USDA increased old-crop corn carryover 20 million bu. from last month. USDA cut total supplies 5 million bu. with a 5-million-bu. cut to estimated imports (to 20 million bushels). USDA left feed & residual use unchanged from last month at 5.675 billion bu., cut corn food, seed & industrial use 35 million bu. (all of that cut comes from corn-for-ethanol use which now stands at 5.435 billion bu.) and increased estimated old-crop corn exports 10 million bu., to 2.83 billion bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2024-25 at $4.30, unchanged from last month.
On new-crop corn, USDA cut estimated carryover 7 million bu. from last month but that is 81 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Total supplies were increased 93 million bu. from last month due to another big increase in corn harvested acres and a bigger-than-expected crop estimate. Total new-crop demand is up 100 million bu. from last month due to a 100-million-bu. increase in estimated corn exports (to 2.975 billion bushels). New-crop corn feed & residual use (6.1 billion bu.) and FSI (including corn-for-ethanol; 6.98 billion bu.) were unchanged from last month. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2025-26 at $3.90, unchanged from last month.
USDA held old-crop soybean carryover unchanged from last month. USDA increased total supplies by 2 million bu. from last month due to a 2-million-bu. increase in estimated imports (to 27 million bushels). To offset that, residual use was increased 2 million bu. to 31 million. Estimated old-crop bean crush and exports were unchanged from last month. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash soybean price for 2024-25 at $10.00, unchanged from last month.
On new-crop beans, USDA raised carryover 10 million bu. from last month and that is 12 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Total supplies are up 9 million bu. from last month due to a slight increase in the size of the 2025 bean crop. On the demand side, USDA increased estimated bean crush 15 million bu. from last month (to 2.555 billion bu.) but cut estimated exports 20 million bu. (to 1.685 billion bushels). Residual use also adjusted up 3 million bu. to 37 million. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash bean price for 2025-26 at $10.00, down a dime from last month.
On wheat, USDA cut estimated 2025-26 carryover by 25 million bushels. USDA made no changes on the supply-side of the 2025-26 balance sheet. On the demand side, USDA added 25 million bu. to estimated exports (to 900 million bu.) to account for the cut to carryover. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2025-26 at $5.10, down 20 cents from last month.
On old-crop cotton, USDA made no change to the supply- or demand-side of the balance sheet and held the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2024-25 at 63 cents.
On new-crop cotton, USDA made minor adjustments on the supply side of the balance sheet and made a slight upside adjustment to “unaccounted” use to hold carryover steady with last month. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2025-26 at 64 cents, unchanged from last month.
Global carryover
Corn: 284.18 MMT for 2024-25, up from 283.11 MMT in August
— 281.40 MMT for 2025-26, down from 282.54 MMT in August
Beans: 123.58 MMT for 2024-25, down from 125.19 MMT in August
— 123.99 MMT for 2025-26, down from 124.90 MMT in August
Wheat: 262.42 MMT for 2024-25, down from 262.70 MMT in August
— 264.06 MMT for 2025-26, up from 260.08 MMT in August
Cotton: 74.06 million bales for 2024-25, down from 75.05 million bales in August
— 73.14 million bales for 2025-26, down from 73.91 million bales in August
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 50.9 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 50.9 MMT in August
— 48.5 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 48.5 MMT in August
Brazil beans: 169.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 169.0 MMT in August
— 175.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 175.0 MMT in August
Argentina wheat: 18.54 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 18.54 MMT in August
— 19.50 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 19.70 MMT in August
Australia wheat: 34.11 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 34.11 MMT in August
— 34.50 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 31.0 MMT in August
China wheat: 140.1 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 140.1 MMT in August
— 140.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 140.0 MMT in August
Canada wheat: 35.94 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 34.96 MMT in August
— 36.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 35.0 MMT in August
EU wheat: 122.12 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 122.12 MMT in August
— 140.10 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 138.25 MMT in August
Russia wheat: 81.6 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 81.6 MMT in August
— 85.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 83.5 MMT in August
Ukraine wheat: 23.4 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 23.4 MMT in August
— 23.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 22.0 MMT in August
China corn: 294.92 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 294.92 MMT in August
— 295.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 295.0 MMT in August
Argentina corn: 50.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 50.0 MMT in August
— 53.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 53.0 MMT in August
Brazil corn: 135.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 132.0 MMT in August
— 131.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 131.0 MMT in August
Ukraine corn: 26.8 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 26.8 MMT in August
— 32.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 32.0 MMT in August
South Africa corn: 16.5 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 15.75 MMT in August
— 16.5 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 16.5 MMT in August
China cotton: 32.0 mil. bales for 2024-25, compares with 32.0 mil. bales in August
— 32.50 mil. bales for 2025-26, compares with 31.5 mil. bales in August