PF Report Reaction: USDA report data relatively mild for corn and soybeans

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Market reaction

Ahead of USDA's reports, corn futures were trading around 3 cents lower, soybeans were 3 to 6 cents lower, wheat futures were mostly 4 to 7 cents lower and cotton was 20 to 100 points higher.

In reaction to the reports, corn is still trading 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are 1 to 3 cents higher, winter wheat futures are 9 to 12 cents lower, spring wheat is 4 to 7 cents lower and cotton is 75 to 200 points higher.

 

Annual Production Summary

Corn: 15.115 billion bu.; trade expected 15.069 billion bu.
— compares to 15.062 billion bu. in November; 14.111 billion bu. in 2020

Beans: 4.435 billion bu.; trade expected 4.433 billion bu.
— compares to 4.425 billion bu. in November; 4.216 billion bu. in 2020

Cotton: 17.624 million bales; trade expected 18.24 million bales
— compares to 18.284 million bales in December; 14.61 million bales in 2020

USDA’s final 2021 corn crop estimate increased 53 million bu. from November and was 46 million bu. greater than traders anticipated. The 2021 U.S. corn crop was the second highest, just 33 million bu. shy of the record in 2016. USDA increased harvested acres by 303,000 acres to 85.338 million acres. It left the national average yield unchanged at 177.0 bu. per acre, which was a record.

USDA estimated record corn yields in Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, Nebraska, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Washington and Wisconsin.

USDA’s final corn yields were 202 bu. per acre in Illinois, 195 bu. in Indiana, 205 bu. in Iowa, 139 bu. in Kansas, 174 bu. in Michigan, 178 bu. in Minnesota, 160 bu. in Missouri, 194 bu. in Nebraska, 105 bu. in North Dakota, 193 bu. in Ohio, 135 bu. in South Dakota and 180 bu. in Wisconsin.

USDA’s final 2021 soybean crop estimate increased 10 million bu. from November and was just 2 million bu. above the average pre-report estimate. The 2021 U.S. soybean crop was record-large, eclipsing the previous high in 2018. USDA raised its national average yield by 0.2 bu. to 51.4 bu. per acre, the second highest behind the 2016 record of 51.9 bu. per acre. USDA trimmed harvested acreage by 104,000 acres to 86.332 million acres.

USDA estimated record soybean yields in Alabama, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia and Wisconsin.

USDA’s final soybean yields were 51 bu. in Arkansas, 64 bu. in Illinois, 59.5 bu. in Indiana, 62 bu. in Iowa, 39.5 bu. in Kansas, 51 bu. in Michigan, 47 bu. in Minnesota, 49 bu. in Missouri, 63 bu. in Nebraska, 25.5 bu. in North Dakota, 56.5 bu. in Ohio, 40 bu. in South Dakota and 55 bu. in Wisconsin.

USDA cut its cotton crop estimate by 660,000 bales from last month, with production 616,000 bales below the average pre-report estimate. USDA raised harvested acreage by 46,000 acres to 9.968 million acres. It cut the national average yield by 36 lbs. to 849 lbs. per acre.

USDA cut its Texas yield estimate by 37 lbs. to 695 lbs. per acre. USDA lowered its Georgia yield by 21 lbs. to 931 lbs. per acre.

 

 

Quarterly Grain Stocks

Corn: 11.647 billion bu.; trade expected 11.602 billion bu.
— compares to 1.236 billion bu. Sept. 1; 11.294 billion bu. Dec. 1, 2020


Beans: 3.149 billion bu.; trade expected 3.129 billion bu.
— compares to 256 million bu. Sept. 1; 2.947 billion bu. Dec. 1, 2020


Wheat: 1.390 billion bu.; trade expected 1.421 billion bu.
— compares to 1.780 billion bu. Sept. 1; 1.703 billion bu. Dec. 1, 2020

Corn stocks in all positions on Dec. 1, 2021, were up 3.1% from year-earlier and were about 45 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Of the total, 7.23 billion were stored on-farm, up 3% from year-earlier. Off-farm stocks of 4.41 billion bushels were up 4% from the same time last year. Implied disappearance in the first quarter of the 2021-22 marketing year was 4.7 billion bushels, down 0.8% from the same quarter last year.

Soybean stocks in all positions on Dec. 1, 2021, were up 6.9% from year-ago and came in 20 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA says soybeans stored on-farm totaled 1.52 billion bu., up 16% from the same time last year. Off-farm bean stocks of 1.63 billion bu. were down 1% from 2020. Implied disappearance in the first quarter of the 2021-22 marketing year was 1.54 billion bu., down 14% from the same period last year.

Wheat stocks in all positions on Dec. 1, 2021, fell 18.4% from the same time last year and were 31 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA says on-farm stocks of wheat on Dec. 1 stood at 273 million bu., down 43% from last year. Off-farm stocks of 1.12 billion bu. were down 8% from last year. Implied disappearance of 384 million bu. in the second quarter of the 2021-22 marketing year was down 16% from the same period last year.

 

 

Winter Wheat Seedings

All winter wheat: 34.397 mil. acres; trade expected 34.255 mil. acres
— compares to 33.648 mil. acres in 2021

HRW: 23.8 mil. acres; trade expected 24.034 mil. acres
— compares to 23.494 mil. acres in 2021

SRW: 7.07 mil. acres; trade expected 6.555 mil. acres
— compares to 6.648 mil. acres in 2021

White winter: 3.56 mil. acres; trade expected 3.577 mil. acres
— compares to 3.506 mil. acres in 2021

USDA’s all winter wheat seeding estimate is up 749,000 acres from last year and 142,000 acres above the average pre-report estimate.

USDA’s HRW acreage estimate is up about 306,000 acres from last year but about 234,000 acres below the average pre-report estimate. Kansas producers planted 7.5 million acres to HRW wheat, up 200,000 acres from last year.

The SRW acreage estimate is up about 422,000 acres from last year but about 515,000 acres above the average pre-report estimate.

USDA’s white winter wheat seedings are up about 54,000 acres from last year but about 17,000 acres lower than traders expected.

 

U.S. carryover

Corn: 1.540 billion bu. for 2021-22; up from 1.493 billion bu. in December

Beans: 350 million bu. for 2021-22; up from 340 million bu. in December

Wheat: 628 million bu. for 2021-22; up from 598 million bu. in December

Cotton: 3.2 million bales for 2021-22; down from 3.4 million bales in December

Corn carryover for 2021-22 is estimated up 47 million bu. from December and came in 68 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate and just 10 million bu. below the high end of the guess range. Total supplies of corn are up 52 million bu. from December due to the bigger corn crop estimate. Total use is estimated up 5 million bu. from last month with reed and residual use unchanged at 5.65 billion bu.; food, seed and industrial use projected at 6.76 billion bu., up 80 million bu. from last month (corn-for-ethanol use is forecast at 5.325 billion bu., up 75 million bu. from December); and exports down 75 million bu. from last month to 2.425 billion bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price at $5.45, unchanged from last month.

Soybean carryover for 2021-22 is estimated up 10 million bu. from December and came in 2 million bu. above the average pre-report trade guess. Total soybean supplies are up 11 million bu. from last month, due to the bigger crop estimate and a 1-million-bu. increase in beginning stocks (2020-21 ending stocks). Total use was increased 1 million bu. from last month with soybean crush unchanged at 2.19 billion bu.; exports unchanged at 2.05 billion bu.; seed use unchanged at 102 million bu.; and residual use up 1 million bu. to 16 million bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash soybean price at $12.60 up 50 cents from last month.

Wheat carryover for 2021-22 is estimated up 30 million bu. from last month and came in 20 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Total supplies of wheat are estimated down 10 million bu. due to a smaller import projection. Total demand is down 40 million bu. from last month. Food use is unchanged at 962 million bu. and seed use was unchanged at 66 million bushels. USDA cut 25 million bu. from projected feed and residual use (to 110 million bu.) and 15 million bu. from exports (to 825 million bu.). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price at $7.15, up a dime from last month.

Cotton carryover for 2021-22 is estimated down 200,000 bales from last month and is 260,000 bales below the average pre-report trade estimate. Total cotton supplies are down 660,000 bales from last month due to the smaller crop estimate. Total use was cut 450,000 bales from December. USDA increased domestic use 50,000 bales to 2.55 million and cut exports by 500,000 bales to 15.0 million. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price at 90 cents, unchanged from December.

 

Global carryover

Corn: 303.07 MMT for 2021-22; down from 305.54 MMT in December
— compares with 292.23 MMT in 2020-21

Beans: 95.2 MMT for 2021-22; down from 102.0 MMT in December
— compares with 99.88 MMT in 2020-21

Wheat: 279.95 MMT for 2021-22; up from 278.18 MMT in December
— compares with 288.82 MMT in 2020-21

Cotton: 85.01 million bales for 2021-22; down from 85.73 million bales in December
— compares with 88.41 million bales in 2020-21

 

 

Global production highlights

Argentina beans: 46.5 MMT for 2021-22; compares with 49.5 MMT in December
— compares with 46.2 MMT in 2020-21

Brazil beans: 139.0 MMT for 2021-22; compares with 144.0 MMT in December
— compares with 138.0 MMT in 2020-21

Argentina wheat: 20.5 MMT for 2021-22; compares with 20.0 MMT in December
— compares with 17.65 MMT in 2020-21

Australia wheat: 34.0 MMT for 2021-22; compares with 34.0 MMT in December
— compares with 33.3 MMT in 2020-21

China wheat: 136.95 MMT for 2021-22; compares with 136.95 MMT in December
— compares with 134.25 MMT in 2020-21

Canada wheat: 21.65 MMT for 2021-22; compares with 21.65 MMT in December
— compares with 35.18 MMT in 2020-21

EU wheat: 138.9 MMT for 2021-22; compares with 138.7 MMT in December
— compares with 126.93 MMT in 2020-21

Russia wheat: 75.5 MMT for 2021-22; compares with 75.5 MMT in December
— compares with 85.35 MMT in 2020-21

Ukraine wheat: 33.0 MMT for 2021-22; compares with 33.0 MMT in December
— compares with 25.42 MMT in 2020-21

China corn: 272.55 MMT for 2021-22; compares with 272.55 MMT in December
— compares with 260.67 MMT in 2020-21

Argentina corn: 54.0 MMT for 2021-22; compares with 54.5 MMT in December
— compares with 50.5 MMT in 2020-21

Brazil corn: 115.0 MMT for 2021-22; compares with 118.0 MMT in December
— compares with 87.0 MMT in 2020-21

Ukraine corn: 42.0 MMT for 2021-22; compares with 40.0 MMT in December
— compares with 30.3 MMT in 2020-21

South Africa corn: 17.0 MMT for 2021-22; compares with 17.0 MMT in December
— compares with 16.9 MMT in 2020-21

China cotton: 27.0 million bales for 2021-22; compares with 26.75 million bales in December
— compares with 29.50 million bales in 2020-21

 

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