PF Report Reaction: Bullish soybean data
Market reaction
As of 11:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading steady to 8 cents higher, soybeans are 15 to 32 cents higher, SRW wheat futures are 1 to 2 cents lower, HRW wheat is 1 to 3 cents higher, spring wheat is 9 to 10 cents higher and cotton is 50 to 70 points lower.
Prospective Plantings Report
Corn: 91.996 mil. acres; trade expected 90.880 mil. acres
— compares to 88.579 mil. acres in 2022
Soybeans: 87.505 mil. acres; traders expected 88.242 mil. acres
— compares to 87.450 mil. acres in 2022
All wheat: 49.855 mil. acres; traders expected 48.852 mil. acres
— compares to 45.738 mil. acres in 2022
Other spring wheat: 10.570 mil. acres; traders expected 10.950 mil. acres
— compares to 10.835 mil. acres in 2022
Durum: 1.780 mil. acres; traders expected 1.666 mil. acres
— compares to 1.632 mil. acres in 2022
Cotton: 11.256 mil. acres; traders expected 11.212 mil. acres
— compares to 13.763 mil. acres in 2022
Corn planting intentions at 91.996 million acres would be up 3.417 million acres from last year and 1.116 million acres more than the average pre-report trade estimate. Corn planting intentions came in just a tad under our survey, which indicated 92.050 million acres.
Compared with last year, corn plantings are expected to increase 200,000 acres in Illinois (to 11.0 million acres), 250,000 acres in Indiana (5.5 million acres), 200,000 acres in Iowa (13.1 million acres), 100,000 acres in Kansas (5.6 million acres), 50,000 acres in Michigan (2.4 million acres), 350,000 acres in Minnesota (8.35 million acres), 100,000 acres in Missouri (3.45 million acres), 800,000 acres in North Dakota (3.75 million acres), 50,000 acres in Ohio (3.45 million acres) and 150,000 acres in South Dakota (5.9 million acres). USDA estimates acres will be unchanged in Wisconsin at 3.95 million acres. Of the top 12 production states, only Nebraska intends to plant fewer acres to corn than last year (down 100,000 acres to 9.5 million acres).
Soybean planting intentions at 87.505 million acres would be up 55,000 acres from last year but 737,000 acres less than traders expected. Our survey indicated producers would reduce soybean plantings by 100,000 acres from last year.
Compared with last year, soybean plantings are expected to increase 100,000 acres in Minnesota (to 7.55 million acres), 850,000 acres in North Dakota (6.55 million acres), 200,000 acres in South Dakota (5.3 million acres) and 140,000 acres in Wisconsin (2.3 million acres). USDA estimates acres will be unchanged from year-ago in Illinois (10.8 million acres), Iowa (10.1 million acres), Nebraska (5.75 million acres) and Ohio (5.1 million acres). Soybean acres are expected to decline 130,000 acres in Arkansas (3.05 million acres), 250,000 acres in Indiana (5.6 million acres), 450,000 acres in Kansas (4.6 million acres), 150,000 acres in Michigan (2.1 million acres) and 100,000 acres in Missouri (6.0 million acres).
Other spring wheat planting intentions at 10.570 million acres would be down 265,000 acres from last year and 380,000 acres from traders' expectations. Our survey indicated other spring wheat acres would increase to 10.998 million acres. Compared to year-ago, other spring wheat acres are expected to decline 70,000 acres in Minnesota (to 1.18 million acres), 100,000 acres in Montana (2.6 million acres), 100,000 acres in North Dakota (5.2 million acres) and 35,000 acres in Washington (440,000 acres). Farmers in Idaho expect to increase spring wheat plantings 40,000 acres (420,000 acres). Farmers in South Dakota expect to plant the same number of acres to spring wheat as last year (730,000 acres).
Durum planting intentions at 1.780 million acres would be up 148,000 acres from last year and 114,000 acres more than traders expected.
Cotton planted area at 11.256 million acres would be down 2.507 million acres from last year and just a little above the average pre-report estimate. Our survey indicated producers would plant 11.200 million acres to cotton this year. Texas cotton acres are expected to decline 1.648 million acres (to 6.235 million acres).
Quarterly Grain Stocks Report
Corn: 7.401 billion bu.; traders expected 7.470 billion bu.
— compares to 10.809 bil. bu. on Dec. 1; 7.758 bil. bu. on March 1, 2022
Soybeans: 1.685 billion bu.; traders expected 1.742 billion bu.
— compares to 3.022 bil. bu. on Dec. 1; 1.932 bil. bu. on March 1, 2022
Wheat: 946.0 billion bu.; traders expected 934 million bu.
— compares to 1.280 bil. bu. on Dec. 1; 1.029 bil. bu. on March 1, 2022
Corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 2023, were down 357 million bu. from year-ago and were 69 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. Corn stored on-farm totaled 4.106 billion bushels, up 0.6% (26 million bu.) from year ago. Corn stored off-farm totaled 3.295 billion bu., down 10.4% (383 million bu.) from year-ago. Implied use in the second quarter of the 2022-23 marketing year was 3.42 billion bu., down 11.9% from the same quarter last year.
Soybean stocks in all positions on March 1, 2023, were down 247 million bu. from year-ago and were 57 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. Soybeans stored on-farm totaled 749.5 million bu., down 0.06% (500,000 bu.) from year-ago. Beans stored off-farm totaled 935.9 million bu., down 20.7% (245 million bu.) from year-ago. Implied use in the second-quarter of the 2022-23 marketing year was 1.34 billion bu., up 11 percent from the same period last year.
Wheat stocks in all positions on March 1, 2023, were down 83 million bu. from year-ago but were 12 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Wheat stored on-farm totaled 227.5 million bu., up 30.4% (53 million bu.) from year-ago. Wheat stored off-farm totaled 718.5 million bu. down 15.9% (136 million bu.) from year-ago. Implied use in the third quarter of the 2022-23 marketing year was 366 million bu., up 5% from the same period last year.
