Good morning!
Grain futures steady-firmer overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, March corn futures were up 2 cents. January soybeans were up 3/4 cent. March SRW and HRW wheat futures were up 1/4 to 1 1/4 cents. The grain futures markets are seeing some tepid short covering following recent selling pressure. The corn market on Wednesday showed resilience despite losses in soybeans and SRW wheat. Soybeans continue to struggle, with meal hitting another seven-week low overnight. Winter wheat futures markets remain trapped in price downtrends and near their contract lows. The key outside markets see the U.S. dollar index higher early today. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly up and trading around $56.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.14 percent.
Dangerous high winds, some blizzard conditions, across northern United States… The National Weather Service today said the central Rockies and the north-central U.S. through the Northeast today will see widespread wind gusts of 50-80 mph. Expect numerous power outages, property damage and dangerous travel. High wind warnings are in effect for these areas. A powerful low-pressure system will bring high winds and light to moderate snowfall that will combine to create whiteout conditions across the Northern Plains into early this evening. Visibility will drop rapidly and persist in areas of blowing snow, making travel extremely hazardous. Blizzard warnings are in effect for parts of far northeastern Montana, much of North Dakota and portions of northwestern Minnesota. As the storm system pushes east, gusty winds up to 60 mph, locally heavy rain, and lake effect snow will likely impact the Northeast U.S. on Friday. Heavy rain is forecast along the Pacific Northwest Coast and also heavy mountain snow across the Northwest mountain ranges, including the northern Rockies through the end of the week.
China on U.S. soybean-buying spree… China has secured at least 7 million MT of U.S. soybeans after heavy buying in the past two weeks, Bloomberg reports, passing the halfway mark toward meeting its 12 million-MT purchase agreement with the Trump administration, according to people familiar with the deals. “The tally follows a wave of buying from Sinograin, the state company in charge of managing China’s strategic grain reserves. The stockpiler booked about 2 million tons from the U.S. last week, according to the people. That has continued this week, with purchases of at least seven soybean cargoes, or more than 400,000 tons, they said. The appearance of Sinograin in the market, which adds to deals booked by state-owned firm Cofco, could ramp up the pace of China’s imports. The purchases also are coming as the Asian nation was auctioning large volumes of soybeans from state reserves to clear space for the incoming cargoes,” said the Bloomberg report, adding that Sinograin did not immediately reply to a fax seeking comment. “The pace of buying has been opaque. Officially, USDA has reported less than 4 million tons of soybeans sold to China, but the total has been widely considered to be higher. The U.S. government shutdown has also delayed weekly export sales data, keeping some of the purchases by China under wraps. Additionally, U.S. exporters have sold nearly 3 million MT of soybeans to unknown destinations through Nov. 20, according to USDA data. Such cargoes can see their destinations changed to China at shipment,” said Bloomberg.
U.S. consumer price index out today… Consumer price inflation in the U.S. is expected to have risen to 3.1% in November (year-on-year), which would mark the highest level since May of 2024, and up from 3.0% YOY in September. Core inflation (minus food and energy) is forecast at 3.0% YOY, unchanged from the September reading. The November CPI report was delayed by nearly a week, while the October report was cancelled altogether due to the government shutdown, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to retroactively collect the necessary data. As a result, there are doubts about the completeness of the November release. The BLS has said it will not publish one-month percentage changes for headline or core CPI for November 2025 where the October 2025 data are missing. TradingEconomics.com
Central banks in Europe set to end interest rate cuts… Sweden’s Riksbank and Norway’s Norges Bank kept their interest rates unchanged at their monetary policy meetings today and signaled they are not in a hurry to cut rates. The European Central Bank also meets today and is expected to stand pat on its monetary policy. Meantime, the Bank of England is seen cutting its rates by 25 basis points but markets are still pricing in only one further BOE cut next year despite softer inflation. TradingEconomics.com
USTR says he wants to keep USMCA trade deal… U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has indicated he supports keeping the U.S. in the present trade accord with Canada and Mexico but acknowledges issues with both nations remain. The USMCA is undergoing a mandatory review as it approaches its sixth year, when signatories can choose to extend it, revise it or end it entirely. U.S. lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have largely categorized this week’s meetings with Greer as positive, saying that they open the door for potential revisions to the trade deal that impact their home-state industries.
Big U.S. arms sale to Taiwan; China not happy… The U.S. has approved a package of arms sales to Taiwan worth up to $11 billion, including missiles, drones, and artillery systems. The sale has drawn criticism from Beijing, with Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun saying China “strongly opposes and condemns” the U.S. arms sale. The package is aimed at strengthening Taiwan’s defenses and marks one of Washington’s most significant efforts in recent years to bolster Taiwan’s military capabilities to deter Chinese aggression.
Update on Canada’s field crops and markets… Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) November field crop outlook report for the 2025-26 crop year, released Wednesday afternoon, said uncertainty in Canadian and global grain markets remains elevated, primarily due to persistent geopolitical factors that continue to disrupt trade flows and market stability. Production of all principal field crops in Canada is estimated at 107.0 million MT, an increase of 10.4% from 2024 and 16.2% above the 2020–2024 average of 92.1 million MT. This marks the largest crop on record, surpassing the previous high of 100.1 million MT set in 2020 by 7%. Western Canada is projected to lead growth, with production rising 16% year-over-year to 85.3 million MT, which is 23% above the five-year average, as nearly all crops posted gains. In contrast, Eastern Canada’s output is expected to decline 6.5% from 2024, driven by lower corn and soybean production that outweighed gains in wheat. The primary driver of higher production was improved yields, as the total harvested area remained largely unchanged. Year-over-year, production by commodity group showed notable gains: wheat rose 11%, with growth in both durum and non-durum varieties. Oilseeds were up 7%, as canola and flaxseed gains offset a smaller soybean crop. Coarse grains were higher by 7% with increases across all coarse grains except corn. Pulse and special crops (P&SC) increased by 32%, largely due to higher pea and lentil production. Exports of principal field crops are projected to decline 4% from last year yet remains 9% above the previous five-year average. Carry-out stocks (year-end inventories) are forecast to rise 68%, driven by higher production and reduced export volumes. Prices for most principal field crops are forecast to decline year-over-year, with the exception of soybeans and mustard, which are expected to post slight increases.
Malaysian palm oil futures rebound… Malaysian palm oil futures climbed around 1% to slightly above MYR 4,000 per MT on Thursday, up for a second straight session as bargain hunting continued after prices slid to a 5-1/2-month low earlier in the week. Sentiment was also lifted by a weaker ringgit and firmer Chicago soyoil, which improved palm oil’s relative competitiveness. Demand signals added to the upbeat tone, with November palm oil imports by top buyer India rising about 5% from October amid attractive prices. However, the contract was still down about 0.3% for the week, marking a second consecutive weekly decline, as concerns over export demand persisted. Cargo surveyors estimated Malaysian palm oil shipments for December 1–15 fell between 15.9% and 16.4% from the previous month. Meanwhile, Malaysia lowered its January 2026 crude palm oil reference price, reducing the export duty to 9.5%, according to a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board website, a move that could help support exports in the coming months.
Cattle futures see some routine profit taking… February live cattle on Wednesday fell $1.15 to $229.55. January feeder cattle lost $1.80 to $341.525. The live and feeder cattle futures markets saw some profit-taking from the shorter-term futures traders. Still, the markets so far this week are pausing after recent good gains, which is not bearish and suggests the near-term price uptrends will continue. Higher cash cattle trade so far this week, following last week’s solid gains, is limiting seller interest in the cattle futures this week. USDA at midday Wednesday reported very light cash cattle trading at $229.00. Cattle futures traders are looking ahead to Friday afternoon’s USDA monthly cattle-on-feed report.
Lean hog futures also see profit taking at mid-week… February lean hogs on Wednesday fell $1.775 to $83.00. Hog futures saw heavy profit-taking pressure, following recent gains that pushed prices to a six-week high earlier this week. The near-term chart posture for the market remains bullish as prices are still in an uptrend. Recent gains in the cash hog market and the CME hog index also suggest seasonal bottoms are in place for cash and futures markets. The latest CME lean hog index is up 31 cents to $83.30. Today’s projected cash index price is up another 57 cents at $83.87. Wednesday’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote is $71.10.