USDA continues to assess the global supply situation given the war in Ukraine, but based on the average pre-report estimates for Friday’s Supply & Demand Report, traders believe the bulk of that is already factored into the U.S. and global balance sheets. USDA will also update its U.S. winter wheat production estimates, though it typically makes minor adjustments in June. A potential wild card is the U.S. corn yield projection. In May, USDA cut its corn yield projection by 4 bu. per acre from trendline due to planting delays. As of June 5, the planting pace had surpassed the five-year average. That could prompt USDA to raise its yield some, though there’s no precedent of that happening in June, and we doubt there will be an upward revision.
Expectations for U.S. Carryover | ||
Corn – billion bushels | ||
2021-22 | 2022-23 | |
Average est. | 1.437 | 1.340 |
Range | 1.390 – 1.485 | 1.029 – 1.425 |
USDA May | 1.440 | 1.360 |
| ||
Soybeans – million bushels | ||
2021-22 | 2022-23 | |
Average est. | 218 | 307 |
Range | 166 - 240 | 250 - 498 |
USDA May | 235 | 310 |
|
| |
Wheat – million bushels | ||
2021-22 | 2022-23 | |
Average est. | 666 | 614 |
Range | 645 - 715 | 511 - 679 |
USDA May | 655 | 619 |
|
| |
Cotton – million bales | ||
2021-22 | 2022-23 | |
Average est. | NA | 3.11 |
Range | NA | 2.60 – 4.00 |
USDA May | 3.40 | 2.90 |
Expectations for Global Carryover | ||
Corn – MMT | ||
| 2021-22 | 2022-23 |
Average est. | 308.57 | 305.10 |
Range | 300.00 - 311.00 | 300.00 - 310.00 |
USDA May | 309.39 | 305.13 |
| ||
Soybeans – MMT | ||
| 2021-22 | 2022-23 |
Average est. | 84.82 | 99.77 |
Range | 83.10 - 86.20 | 97.51 - 102.90 |
USDA May | 85.24 | 99.60 |
| ||
Wheat – MMT | ||
| 2021-22 | 2022-23 |
Average est. | 279.83 | 267.18 |
Range | 277.20 - 281.30 | 260.00 - 271.70 |
USDA May | 279.72 | 267.02 |
| ||
Cotton – million bales | ||
| 2021-22 | 2022-23 |
Average est. | NA | 82.90 |
Range | NA | 81.50 – 85.82 |
USDA May | 83.65 | 82.82 |
Expectations for | |
All wheat – billion bu. | |
Average est. | 1.713 |
Range | 1.628 – 1.751 |
USDA May | 1.729 |
USDA 2021 | 1.646 |
| |
Winter wheat – billion bu. | |
Average est. | 1.174 |
Range | 1.150 – 1.197 |
USDA May | 1.174 |
USDA 2021 | 1.277 |
| |
HRW wheat – million bu. | |
Average est. | 585 |
Range | 568 - 612 |
USDA May | 590 |
USDA 2021 | 749 |
| |
SRW wheat – million bu. | |
Average est. | 357 |
Range | 350 - 366 |
USDA May | 354 |
USDA 2021 | 361 |
| |
White winter wheat – million bu. | |
Average est. | 232 |
Range | 225 - 236 |
USDA May | 230 |
USDA 2021 | 167 |
| |