Market Snapshot | September 18, 2023

Corn is mostly 4 to 5 cents lower at midmorning.

• December corn futures have marked a for-the-move low, led lower by spillover from the soybean and wheat markets.
• USDA reported corn export inspections of 642,095 MT (25.3 million bu.) for week ended Sept. 14, which were up 16,851 MT from the previous week and near the top-end of the pre-report range of 450,000 to 775,000 MT.
• Wetter weather advertised in the U.S. western Corn Belt later this week and in the Northern U.S. Plains will disrupt crop maturation and harvest progress, but it should not last long, according to World Weather Inc. Favorable harvest weather is expected in the eastern Midwest and Delta.
• Summer corn sowing for Brazil’s new crop advanced to 21%, compared 22% a year ago. Excess rain in Rio Grande do Sul slowed fieldwork, while Parana and Santa Catarina are advancing more quickly.
• Analyst APK-Inform increased Ukraine’s 2023-24 corn export forecast by 1 MMT to 19 MMT, though that is still down 6.3 MMT (23.1%) from shipments of 27.3 MMT in 2022-23.
• December corn has traded the lowest level since September 2021, with additional support at $4.69 3/4. Initial resistance stands at $4.78 1/4.

Soybeans are mostly 16 to 18 cents lower, while December meal futures are around $3.00 lower. December soyoil is more than 80 points lower.

• November soybeans are extending Friday’s losses to the lowest level since mid-August amid harvest pressure and weakness in meal and soyoil.
• USDA reported daily export sales of 123,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during 2023-24.
• USDA reported soybean export inspections of 393,004 MT (14.4 million bu.), which rose 19,385 MT from the previous week and were within the pre-report range of 250,000 to 600,000 MT.
• Soybean planting efforts began in Brazil, though the pace advanced slowly as producers were waiting for rain, despite the authorization for early planting for some producers.
• Malaysian palm oil futures fell overnight after three straight sessions of gains, weighed down by weakness in Dalian Palm Olein and CBOT Soyoil.
• November soybean futures have traded the lowest level since Aug. 17, though support has held at $13.19 1/4, while resistance is at $13.48 3/4.

SRW wheat futures are mostly 11 to 13 cents lower, while HRW is mostly 15 to 16 cents lower. HRS contracts 13 to 15 cents lower.

• The wheat complex is facing pressure despite supportive outside markets.
• USDA reported wheat export inspections of 367,371 (13.5 million bu.), which were down 38,810 MT from the previous week, but within the pre-report range of 250,000 to 500,000 MT.
• Two cargo vessels arrived in Ukraine on Saturday, the first ships to use a temporary corridor to sail into Black Sea ports and load grain for African and Asian markets. They were due to load almost 20,000 MT of wheat for Africa and Asia.
• Ukraine will file a complaint to the World Trade Organization over an import ban of its grain into Poland, Hungary and Slovakia “in several hours,” according to Deputy Economy Minister Taras Kachka. Kyiv also plans to retaliate with its own bans on imports of several products if the neighboring countries don’t scrap similar restrictions.
• December SRW futures continue to face resistance at the 10-day moving average of $5.96 1/4, meanwhile support serves at $5.85 1/4.

Live cattle are showing mild weakness, while feeders are posting moderate to sharp losses.

• Live cattle are facing mild corrective selling following last week’s all-time highs.
• Last week’s cash average is expected to come in sharply higher from the previous week, but short of the all-time high posted earlier this summer.
• Wholesale beef slipped Friday, with Choice falling 66 cents to $305.71, while Select dropped $3.74 to $283.12. Movement totaled 156 loads for the day.
• October live cattle are trading within Friday’s range, with $187.30 serving as initial resistance, while support lies at $185.57.

Lean hogs are posting slight- to moderate losses at midmorning.

• October lean hogs have rebounded from earlier lows, as wholesale weakness pressured prices, but are being limited by technical resistance.
• The CME lean hog index is down a penny to $86.93.
• The pork cutout value fell 26 cents Friday to $98.83, while movement totaled 254.3 loads.
• China imported 110,000 MT of pork during August, down 10,000 MT (8.3%) from July and 21% less than last year. Through the first eight months of 2023, China imported 1.17 MMT of pork, up 9.6% from the same period last year.
• October lean hogs have tested the 10-, 40- and 20-day moving averages of $83.07, $82.29 and $82.08, respectively. Additional support is at $81.63. Initial resistance is at $83.78.