World Weather Inc. says, “concern over below-average precipitation and potential cuts in yield will continue in parts of Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and southern Brazil.” The weather forecaster notes, “The pattern has been closely aligned with the coexistence of La Nina and the 22-year solar cycle with a little mix of the 18-year cycle. Each of these weather features is reinforcing the others and until La Nina begins a more significant weakening trend status quo is going to be the best forecast for South America. That means January weather will be similar to that of December and concern over below average precipitation and potential cuts in yield will continue for a while longer in parts of Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and southern Brazil.”
It continues, “Most computer forecast models have suggested that La Nina is very near its peak of intensity. Slow weakening is expected in January followed by a greater rate of South America weakening in February and March. The influence of La Nina on South America weather will likely continue without much change over the next few weeks because of its slow weakening. Because of the unchanging La Nina situation the forecast for Brazil and Argentina is not likely to deviate much in January. That means rainfall will continue below average from eastern and northern Argentina through southern Brazil, including Uruguay and Paraguay.
“Since the ridge of high pressure will be centered over Argentina, southern Brazil’s weather may not be as extreme as it could be. No prolonged bouts of excessive heat are expected and there will be some opportunities for showers and thunderstorms.”
The weather forecaster predicts “February will be the first month for possible change [in weather pattern] and the first change is expected to be a northward shift in the heat and dryness. Southern Argentina will get a few well-timed rain events to bring moisture into Buenos Aires, southern Santa Fe and southern Cordoba as well as La Pampa and San Luis. However, most of northern Argentina, Paraguay and some areas in Bolivia will continue to deal with dryness and some excessive heat resulting in further losses in production potential for some crops in each of these areas.
“February weather in Brazil will perpetuate the wetter bias in Tocantins, Bahia and a few neighboring areas. Concern over crop damage in those areas should rise if the February forecast verifies after January was already wetter biased. Rio Grande Sul and areas northeast into eastern Sao Paulo will see near-normal rainfall during February. Temperatures during February will be cooler biased in northeastern Brazil because of the wet conditions while readings in Bolivia, Paraguay and northern and central Argentina are warmer than usual.”