H&P Report to show further hog herd contraction
Analysts expect Wednesday’s Hogs & Pigs Report to show the U.S. hog herd contracted 1.2% from year-ago as of March 1. Based on the average pre-report estimate, the March 1 hog herd is expected to total just over 73 million head, including a market hog inventory of 66.8 million head (down 1.3%) and breeding herd of 6.2 million head (up 0.1%).
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|
Average estimate |
Range of estimates |
|
All hogs March 1 |
98.8 |
97.1-99.5 |
|
Kept for breeding |
100.1 |
99.4-100.5 |
|
Kept for marketing |
98.7 |
97.2-99.5 |
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|
|
|
|
Market hog inventory |
|
|
|
under 50 lbs. |
101.1 |
99.3-103.2 |
|
50 lbs.-119 lbs. |
99.5 |
97.9-101.4 |
|
120 lbs.-179 lbs. |
96.5 |
94.2-98.2 |
|
Over 180 lbs. |
97.9 |
95.6-102.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Pig crop (Dec.-Feb.) |
101.3 |
100.4-102.6 |
|
Pigs per litter (Dec.-Feb.) |
101.0 |
100.2-102.1 |
|
Farrowings (Dec.-Feb.) |
100.4 |
100-100.9 |
|
Farrowing intentions (March-May) |
99.7 |
99.2-100.5 |
|
Farrowing intentions (June-Aug.) |
100.6 |
99.5-101.4 |
Analysts expect USDA to show the winter pig crop expanded 1.3% from last year amid a 0.4% increase in farrowings and a 1.0% rise in the number of pigs saved per litter. Looking forward, traders expect spring farrowing intentions to be down 0.3%, but to rise 0.6% during the summer months.
