Analysts expect Wednesday’s Hogs & Pigs Report to show the U.S. hog herd contracted 1.2% from year-ago as of March 1. Based on the average pre-report estimate, the March 1 hog herd is expected to total just over 73 million head, including a market hog inventory of 66.8 million head (down 1.3%) and breeding herd of 6.2 million head (up 0.1%).
| Average estimate | Range of estimates |
All hogs March 1 | 98.8 | 97.1-99.5 |
Kept for breeding | 100.1 | 99.4-100.5 |
Kept for marketing | 98.7 | 97.2-99.5 |
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Market hog inventory |
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under 50 lbs. | 101.1 | 99.3-103.2 |
50 lbs.-119 lbs. | 99.5 | 97.9-101.4 |
120 lbs.-179 lbs. | 96.5 | 94.2-98.2 |
Over 180 lbs. | 97.9 | 95.6-102.3 |
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Pig crop (Dec.-Feb.) | 101.3 | 100.4-102.6 |
Pigs per litter (Dec.-Feb.) | 101.0 | 100.2-102.1 |
Farrowings (Dec.-Feb.) | 100.4 | 100-100.9 |
Farrowing intentions (March-May) | 99.7 | 99.2-100.5 |
Farrowing intentions (June-Aug.) | 100.6 | 99.5-101.4 |
Analysts expect USDA to show the winter pig crop expanded 1.3% from last year amid a 0.4% increase in farrowings and a 1.0% rise in the number of pigs saved per litter. Looking forward, traders expect spring farrowing intentions to be down 0.3%, but to rise 0.6% during the summer months.