Year-over-year, Susan Olson says there are few interesting updates comparing how the Mississippi River is being used for grain transport.
Most surprising to her is according to USDA data there was a 3.4 million metric ton increase in grain exports from NOLA in mid-year 2025, however from her firm’s proprietary data, barge movements decreased. This could mean a shift toward rail being used to bring grain to the port for export.
Olson founded Action Intel, which uses proprietary data combining AIS signals that come from tow boats, imagery, computer vision tools and more to analyze barge movement and logistics volumes. Since 2023, the company has assembled barges per tow and reported its data.
Trade Flow and Logistics
While September and October usually usher in higher barge volumes due to grain harvest in the Corn Belt, this year did not see as high of a peak for traffic into New Orleans.
“Patterns changed this year. The numbers are lower and aren’t the peak of October last year. It is a little less than 1 million metric tons lower this fall into NOLA,” Olson. “Outbound north from NOLA volume is up 1 million metric tons. Also, notable, we are very slowly increasing trends in liquid tows moving in and out of NOLA.”
Increased backhauls is being attributed to another trend emerging this year – longer turn times for dry bulk tows. In 2024, turn times for dry bulks tows averaged 4.8 day but it’s up to 5.6 days in 2025. Olson points out backhauls usually carry fertilizer, metals, minerals, salt, etc.
“We could be seeing a change in the historic trends and a flattening of supply and demand of barges instead of peaks,” she says. “It could be a trend this year and may not persist. But we’ll have to watch the logistical patterns and flows changing.”
To-date in 2025, grain barge freight rates have remained high, averaging $506 to $600 compared to $400 in 2024.
Delays and wait times also rose with higher barge wait times in 2025 due to lock delays and high water levels. In Cairo, Ill., this year saw an average of 1,000 barges waiting compared to 800 in 2024. The first half of 2025 had high water levels and lock delays, which contributed to the waits, whereas the second has been plagued with lower water levels and the slower turn times.
In September, the Coast Guard issued low water restrictions on barge drafts and configurations, which are still in place on the lower Mississippi River. Earlier this week, the Coast Guard issues an update to deep water tows to leave the St. Louis area, and all vessels to travel at slow speed because of narrow channel width.
For marketing year 2024, corn was 32% of the exports out of New Orleans (5.5 MMT), and in 2025, corn is 48% (7.6 MMT).
“The reduction in exports of soybeans to China has changed what exports overall look like,” Olson says.
Looking at the top 15 destinations for corn exports out of New Orleans, there’s been a dramatic shift.
