Focus shifts from South America to Russia/Ukraine for S&D impacts

USDA on Wednesday should increase U.S. corn and wheat exports to reflect major uncertainties with Black Sea grain shipments.

usda
usda
(USDA)

USDA’s March Supply & Demand Report typically features just minor fine tuning to its old-crop U.S. usage forecasts. But USDA on Wednesday should increase U.S. corn and wheat exports to reflect major uncertainties with Black Sea grain shipments. We also anticipate higher usage forecasts for soybeans to reflect reduced South American soybean and soy product exports. Following are pre-report estimates from a Reuters survey (Bloomberg for cotton).

Expectations for
U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

2021-22

Average est.

1.479

Range

1.390-1.540

USDA February

1.540

Soybeans – million bushels

2021-22

Average est.

278

Range

182-325

USDA February

325

Wheat – million bushels

2021-22

Average est.

628

Range

569-658

USDA February

648

Cotton – million bales

2021-22

Average est.

3.37

Range

3.10-3.65

USDA February

3.50

Expectations for
Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

2021-22

Average est.

301.07

Range

298.00-305.50

USDA February

302.22

Soybeans – MMT

2021-22

Average est.

89.46

Range

85.50-93.40

USDA February

92.83

Wheat – MMT

2021-22

Average est.

277.59

Range

274.50-280.00

USDA February

278.21

Cotton – million bales

2021-22

Average est.

84.31

Range

83.95-84.50

USDA February

84.31

Brazilian Production

Soybeans – MMT

Average est.

129.01

Range

121.20-134.00

USDA February

134.00

Corn – MMT

Average est.

112.98

Range

110.00-116.10

USDA February

114.00

Argentine
Production

Soybeans – MMT

Average est.

43.39

Range

40.00-45.00

USDA February

45.00

Corn – MMT

Average est.

52.09

Range

49.00-54.00

USDA February

54.00