Good morning!
Soybeans and corn weaker, wheat mildly firmer this morning... Soybean futures faced followthrough selling during the overnight session. Corn tried to work higher but has weakened early this morning. Wheat rebounded from early losses to trade mildly firmer. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading about a penny lower, soybeans are 6 to 7 cents lower and wheat futures are unchanged to 2 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index is around 180 points higher and front-month crude oil futures are about 50 cents lower.
Carney, Trump agree to meet... Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Donald Trump agreed to meet soon in their first call since Carney’s Liberal Party secured a narrow election victory. The call, which occurred just hours after Carney claimed a minority mandate, focused on strengthening defense and commercial ties. Trump congratulated Carney and emphasized cooperation “as independent, sovereign nations.” Carney pledged to diversify trade beyond the U.S. while affirming readiness to negotiate directly with Trump, citing his business and central banking background.
Trump relaxes auto tariffs... President Trump signed a pair of directives easing the impact of his tariffs on the automotive industry. Tariffs of 25% on imported vehicles into the U.S. will continue, but the new measures aim to reduce the overall tariff level on vehicle imports that had resulted from separate levies — such as an additional 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum — “stacking” on top of one another. Under the order, additional 25% tariffs on auto parts that were set to start by May 3 will also still take effect, but vehicles that go through final assembly in the U.S. will be able to qualify for partial reimbursements on those levies for two years. Those parts-related reimbursements include potential offsets of an amount equal to 3.75% of the value of a U.S.-made car that’s assembled before May 1, 2026. After that, the reimbursement cap is lowered to 2.5% of the car’s value until April 30, 2027, according to the order. It’s unclear how an automaker would get such a reimbursement, but the offer is retroactive to when the tariffs took effect on April 3.
Lutnick touts unnamed trade deal... Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC he had reached a deal with one foreign power that should permanently ease the “reciprocal” tariffs Trump plans to impose. Lutnick declined to identify the country, saying the deal was pending local approvals. “I have a deal done... but I need to wait for their prime minister and their parliament to give its approval,” he said. White House officials had no further comment on the country in question, though there’s speculation it is India after comments from Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday.
China seeking other markets for UCO shipments amid U.S. tariffs... China’s used cooking oil (UCO) exports to the U.S., its largest buyer, are set to plunge in coming months due to steep tariffs, forcing sellers to divert shipments to Europe and elsewhere, Reuters reported. Shipments to the U.S. are tumbling with the last cargoes sailing around late March and early April before trade grinds to a halt, said three China-based UCO traders. “For the time being, arbitrage to the U.S. is closed and we think it will remain so for the medium term,” said Richard Dickinson, Shanghai-based head of trading Amarus Trading, one of the largest dealers of Chinese UCO. “Some of the exports will be diverted to Europe and new markets in Asia such as Korea, Thailand, Malaysia and India.” Exports to the U.S. have fallen since last December as Beijing removed tax rebates for UCO exports and also due to the new U.S. clean fuel tax policy that discourages the use of imported UCO, with steep U.S. tariffs exacerbating the situation, an exporter said.
China ramps up GM corn planting... China will plant four to five times more genetically modified (GM) corn this year than last, Reuters reported, building momentum in a rollout that has been slowed by tight state controls, public skepticism and mixed trial outcomes. China’s GM corn planting area is on track to increase to between 40 million and 50 million mu (3.3 million hectares) this year from roughly 10 million mu in 2024, according to CITICS Research and three seed industry insiders. Even with the increase in plantings, GM corn would still only account for 7% of China’s total corn acreage. Several recent GM trials resulted in lower yields, disappointing some farmers already skeptical about the technology, according to the three sources familiar with the rollout, putting progress at risk. Some regions where first-generation GM corn trials were planted during 2022-23 saw 10% to 20% yield declines, the sources said.
USITC: Chinese, Indian 2,4-D imports harm U.S. industry... The U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) ruled that imports of 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) from China and India are materially injuring the U.S. industry. This follows a Commerce Department, finding that these imports were both dumped and subsidized. The ruling paves the way for Commerce to impose anti-dumping and countervailing duties. The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) expressed concern, warning of potential supply shortages and increased costs for farmers already struggling with high input prices.
Argentine soybean sales slowest in 11 years... Argentine farmers’ soybean sales were the slowest in 11 years despite the easing of exchange controls that President Javier Milei hoped would encourage sales. According to the ag ministry, soybean sales reached 24% of the 49 MMT estimated harvest as of April 23. Uncertainty regarding the exchange rate and a slow start to soybean harvest due to heavy rains have impacted the soybean sales pace.
China’s factory activity contracts in April... China’s official purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in April from a 50.5 reading the previous month. This marked the first contraction in factory activity since January and the steepest decline since December 2023, despite Beijing’s stimulus measures aimed at supporting economic recovery amid growing concerns with the building China/U.S. tariff standoff. Output and new orders declined after rising in the previous month, while foreign orders shrunk the most in at least 11 months.
Euro zone economy picks up steam in Q1 but headwinds ahead... The euro zone economy grew 0.4% in the first quarter of 2025, accelerating from 0.2% in the previous quarter, according to a preliminary estimate. The pickup was supported by stronger domestic demand, driven by easing inflation, lower borrowing costs, renewed optimism following Germany’s agreement to loosen fiscal constraints, and expectations of increased defense spending in the coming months. These developments helped offset persistent concerns over volatile U.S. tariff policies, though economic momentum may weaken in the months ahead as new U.S. duties begin to weigh on EU exports.
Smithfield: Tariffs make China unviable market for its U.S. pork... China, the world’s biggest pork consumer, is no longer a viable market for top U.S. pork processor Smithfield Foods due to retaliatory tariffs by Beijing, company executives said. Beijing’s additional tariffs pushed China’s effective duty rate on U.S. pork to 172%, according to industry data. China represents about 3% of Smithfield’s sales. The company traditionally shipped variety meat to China, such as pig stomachs, hearts and heads that U.S. consumers generally do not eat.
Choice beef prices surge... Choice boxed beef prices jumped another $5.49 to $348.26 on Tuesday, eclipsing the August 2021 peak to reach the second highest ever behind the 2020 surge to a record $450.92. Despite surging wholesale beef prices, packer margins remain deep in the red given record cash cattle prices.
Cash hog index continues to climb... The CME lean hog index is up another 60 cents to $88.78 as of April 28, the ninth straight daily rise. During that span the index has risen $3.69. As of Tuesday’s close, May lean hog futures held a $3.77 premium, while June hogs finished $10.67 above the index.
Overnight demand news... South Korea purchased 65,000 MT of U.S. corn, 132,000 MT of optional origin corn and 65,000 MT of optional origin feed wheat excluding Russia, Argentina, Pakistan, Denmark and China.
Today’s reports
- 9:30 a.m. Weekly Ethanol Production — EIA
- 2:00 p.m. Broiler Hatchery — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Agricultural Prices — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Egg Products — NASS