Good morning!
Selling continues in corn, while beans and wheat firm... Corn futures faced followthrough selling overnight, though remaining above Tuesday’s contract lows. Soybeans and wheat firmed overnight. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents lower, soybeans are 5 to 8 cents higher and wheat futures are unchanged to fractionally higher. The U.S. dollar index is around 130 points higher and front-month crude oil futures are nearly $1.00 higher.
House GOP faces internal revolt as leadership rushes reconciliation bill to a vote... House Republican leaders are scrambling to pass their multi-trillion-dollar reconciliation bill as soon as today – though the vote could slip until Thursday – racing against fierce opposition from both the hard-right and moderate wings of their conference. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), and Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) are pressing ahead on a compressed timeline, but doubts are widespread about their ability to even clear a procedural rule for floor debate. Leadership is leaning on President Donald Trump’s influence to rally wavering members, but patience is running thin after repeated concessions failed to sway the bill’s critics. House GOP leadership can lose up to three Republican votes and still pass a reconciliation measure, assuming all Democrats vote against it and all members are present. The House of will meet today at 9 a.m. ET to debate and vote on the tax and spending bill, but the timeline for the vote is murky.
CBO updates deficit impact of Senate-passed reconciliation package... The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), in conjunction with the Joint Committee on Taxation, has issued a preliminary update on the fiscal impact of the Senate-approved budget reconciliation package. According to the latest CBO estimates, the legislation is projected to raise the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade compared to the January baseline. Amendments adopted during Senate floor consideration—relative to the original version introduced on June 27—would: Increase outlays (government spending) by approximately $90 billion, reduce revenues by about $20 billion and result in a net deficit increase of roughly $110 billion. These changes are layered on top of the package’s overall projected deficit impact, reflecting the cumulative effect of Senate policy modifications and new spending measures. CBO is expected to release a more detailed breakdown of the bill’s components and their respective budgetary effects in the coming weeks.
U.S. trade partners scramble as tariff deadline nears... With the July 9 extension deadline for U.S. tariffs rapidly approaching, major American trading partners are facing heightened uncertainty over their economic prospects. Despite months of negotiations, dozens of country-specific trade deals remain unresolved, including high-stakes talks with the “key 18” nations highlighted by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Negotiations with other major economies — including China, Japan, India and the European Union — are ongoing, each complicated by unique demands and domestic constraints. Trump and his officials have repeatedly warned that failure to reach deals by July 9 could trigger the snapback of tariffs to the steep levels set on April 2 — some reaching as high as 50%. Such a scenario risks significant economic and market disruption. Bessent has suggested some flexibility on the deadline, but only Trump can grant extensions. Even if agreements are reached, a baseline 10% tariff is expected to persist for most imports, with only substantial concessions potentially lowering rates further for select nations. Economists warn that if the bulk of tariffs are reimposed, the risk of a major supply shock — with attendant inflation, job losses, and strained global alliances — remains significant.
Farmer sentiment sours as trade outlook dims... Farmer sentiment weakened sharply in June after two months of improvement, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The overall barometer dropped 12 points to 146, driven mainly by a steeper decline in producers’ future outlook. The Index of Future Expectations fell 18 points to 146. The percentage of producers expecting declining exports also rose. The Current Conditions Index slipped 2 points to 144. Concerns about U.S. agricultural exports were a leading factor in the weaker long-term sentiment, with only 41% of farmers expecting export growth over the next five years — down from 52% in May. Farmers remain concerned that U.S. tariff policies could negatively impact their farms’ income, but fewer producers said they expected a negative or very negative impact on income than when tariff policies were the focus of attention in March and April. Click here for full report.
India’s palm oil imports surge, soyoil drops in June... India’s oil imports surged 61% month-on-month to 953,000 MT in June, the highest since July 2024, according to estimates from dealers. Soyoil imports fell 9% from May to 363,000 MT. India’s total edible oil imports rose 30% in June from the previous month to 1.53 MMT, the highest since November.
Powell confirms Trump tariffs delayed Fed rate cuts... Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday the central bank would likely have already cut interest rates this year if not for the economic shock generated by President Trump’s new tariffs. Speaking at a central banking conference in Portugal, Powell affirmed that the Fed “went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs,” adding, “all inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs.” This is expected to increase tensions with Trump, who has openly pressured Powell to lower rates, even posting a handwritten note urging immediate cuts. Powell reaffirmed the Fed still expects to lower rates later this year, forecasting two quarter-point cuts for 2025. However, he warned that inflation will remain elevated over the summer due to tariffs’ impact on consumer and producer prices. Other central bank leaders at the conference noted that tariffs can have both inflationary and deflationary effects, depending on supply chain impacts and consumer behavior. Of note: Powell signaled the Fed may be open to cutting U.S. interest rates as early as July, citing rising concerns over slowing economic growth and persistent uncertainty in the inflation outlook. Powell said recent data had reinforced the case for a more flexible policy stance, acknowledging that “risks to the outlook are becoming more balanced.” His comments mark a shift from the Fed’s previous posture of holding rates steady, as investors and policymakers react to mixed economic indicators and ongoing trade tensions.
Trump vows to refill SPR when prices are right... Trump said the U.S. will refill its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) when oil prices are favorable, aiming to rebuild the emergency stockpile that was heavily depleted during the Biden administration. Trump did not give a specific price target but indicated he is watching for a better buying opportunity. Analysts say current prices could be attractive for government purchases. The SPR currently holds about 400 million barrels — just over half its maximum capacity — after major drawdowns following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Trump and congressional Republicans have repeatedly criticized those drawdowns. The Senate’s newly passed tax-and-spending bill would provide $218 million for reserve maintenance and $171 million for new petroleum purchases to help replenish the stockpile, which is stored in underground Gulf Coast caverns.
Turkey shuts livestock markets nationwide amid FMD outbreak... Turkey has temporarily closed all livestock markets across the country to halt the spread of a highly contagious new serotype of foot and mouth disease (FMD), the ag ministry announced. The outbreak intensified following Eid al-Adha, when the traditional slaughter of animals increased livestock movement and heightened transmission risks. Authorities are deploying vaccination teams nationwide and pledged to gradually lift restrictions once the entire livestock population is immunized against the new FMD strain. Officials emphasized the temporary closures will not disrupt meat or dairy supplies and are necessary to safeguard animal health and protect the agricultural sector.
Liquidation pressure hits cattle futures... Cattle futures faced active long liquidation pressure on Tuesday, despite steep discounts to the cash market. The lower futures price action this week is expected to weigh on cash cattle prices. Active cash trade has not yet gotten underway, though packers and feedlots are likely to wrap up negotiations early ahead of Friday’s holiday.
Cash hog fundamentals weaken... The CME lean hog index is down 77 cents to $110.99 as of June 30, the second straight daily decline after an extended string of gains. The pork cutout fell another $3.07 to $112.30 and is now $10.81 below its June 24 peak.
Overnight demand news... Exporters reported no tenders or sales.
Today’s reports
- 9:30 a.m. Weekly Ethanol Production — EIA
- 2:00 p.m. Broiler Hatchery — NASS