Good morning!
Wheat pulls back, corn and soybeans firming this morning... Wheat futures pulled back from Wednesday’s price surge during overnight trade, while corn and soybeans have firmed early this morning. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents higher, soybeans are 3 to 4 cents higher and wheat futures are 1 to 3 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is more than 200 points lower, while front-month crude oil futures are around 90 cents higher.
Heat dome to swelter central, eastern United States... A powerful heat dome is forecast to push temperatures to record highs across the central and eastern U.S. this weekend and into early next week. The National Weather Service issued a level 3 out of 4 heat risk for impacted areas. World Weather Inc. said, “The heatwave will seriously stress crops” in the driest areas from western Iowa, central and eastern Nebraska and portions of the northwestern Plains across eastern Iowa to northern Illinois. Rains are likely to follow the heatwave. World Weather said, “The high pressure ridge in eastern North America next week will relocate to the central U.S. during late June and early July, but the ridge intensity will not be strong enough to induce a big blocking weather pattern.”
Middle East conflict escalates, Trump won’t step in yet... Israel and Iran continued to exchange missile fire, with Israeli strikes targeting key Iranian nuclear facilities and nuclear talks now on indefinite hold. President Donald Trump will decide whether to strike or negotiate with Iran within the next two weeks, according to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. She said there is a “substantial chance” of negotiations with Iran as the conflict intensifies. Leavitt also said Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, remains in contact with Iranian officials.
Canada passes law shielding dairy, egg and poultry sectors from future trade concessions... Bill C-202 amends Canada’s foreign affairs act, making it illegal for government ministers to reduce tariffs or increase import quotas on dairy, eggs and poultry in future trade negotiations. Ministers cannot increase tariff rate quotas (TRQs) for these products and cannot lower tariffs on imports above TRQ levels. However, trade experts and representatives from export-reliant sectors, like beef and grain, have raised concerns. They warn that the law may complicate Canada’s ability to negotiate concessions in other areas, as it legally prohibits market access offers on key supply-managed goods. Timing of the bill is notable, arriving just before anticipated talks with the U.S. and Mexico on renewing the USMCA trade agreement.
Canada moves to limit foreign steel imports amid U.S. tariff pressure... Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced new measures to restrict foreign steel imports, aiming to support Canada’s largest steel producers who are struggling with the impact of President Donald Trump’s decision to double tariffs on steel imports to 50%. Carney said Canada will cap steel imports from countries without a free trade agreement at 2024 levels. Algoma Steel CEO Michael Garcia has repeatedly warned that steelmakers from China, South Korea, Malaysia, India, Vietnam, the Middle East, and Turkey flood the Canadian market with cheap steel, making it nearly impossible to compete domestically, especially with the U.S. market largely closed off.
Weekly Export Sales Report out this morning... For the week ended June 12, traders expect:
| 2024-25 expectations (in MT) | 2024-25 last week | 2025-26 expectations (in MT) | 2025-26 last week | |
| Corn | 600,000-1,200,000 | 791,327 | 0-200,000 | (29,550) |
| Wheat | NA | 4,053 | 300,000-600,000 | 388,919 |
| Soybeans | 0-400,000 | 61,394 | 0-200,000 | 58,086 |
| Soymeal | 150,000-350,000 | 214,533 | 0-100,000 | 46,508 |
| Soyoil | 0-22,000 | 5,585 | 0-10,000 | (1,488) |
Brazil provides most of China’s record May soybean imports... Of the record 13.92 MMT of soybeans China imported during May, 12.11 MMT came from Brazil, up 37.5% from last year. China’s imports of U.S. soybeans totaled 1.63 MMT, up 28.3% from May 2024. For the first five months of this year, China’s imports totaled 21.25 MMT from Brazil (up 14.0%) and 14.57 MMT from the U.S. (up 34.3%).
Russian wheat exports expected to rise in 2025-26... Russia plans to export 45 MMT of wheat in 2025-26, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut told the Izvestia media outlet, up 1 MMT from the estimate for 2024-25. Wheat production is forecast at 90 MMT in 2025, up from 82.6 MMT last year. Lut expects total grain exports of 53 MMT to 55 MMT for 2025-26.
Japan’s rice crisis fuels political, economic turmoil... Japan’s core consumer prices soared 3.7% in May, the fastest annual rise since January 2023. The surge was driven by skyrocketing food costs, particularly rice, which has doubled in price amid supply shortages, panic buying and surging demand from tourism and hospitality. The crisis has eroded support for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s government, triggering a ministerial resignation and forcing emergency policy measures, including the release of rice reserves. With households under strain and GDP shrinking, the Bank of Japan faces pressure to hike interest rates despite fragile growth. The affordability of rice has become a central issue as critical parliamentary elections approach.
China keeps benchmark lending rates unchanged... The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) kept key lending rates at record lows. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) — the benchmark for most corporate and household loans — was held steady at 3.0%, while the five-year LPR, which guides mortgage rates, remained at 3.5%.
Brazil declares itself HPAI-free... Brazil declared itself free of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in commercial flocks after observing a 28-day period without any new commercial farm outbreaks, the Brazilian ministry of agriculture said. Brazil now aims at resuming chicken exports with its trade partners, but that will require talks with each one of them, Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro said. Reclaiming Brazil’s status as free HPAI must be confirmed by the World Organization for Animal Health, according to guidelines from the body.
Placements the focal point in Cattle on Feed Report... Analysts polled by Reuters expect USDA to show the June 1 feedlot inventory down 1.1% from year-ago at 11.456 million head in this afternoon’s Cattle on Feed Report. Given the ban on Mexican feeder cattle imports and talk of more heifers being retained for breeding, the placements figure will draw a lot of attention, with the average estimate indicating a 5.9% decline though there’s a 10-point spread between the range of expectations. May marketings declined sharply as packers slowed slaughter runs amid deeply negative margins, with the average estimate indicating a 9.3% reduction.
Cash cattle trade at lower prices... Cash cattle trade has been relatively light so far, with sales that have taken place being at $3.00 to $5.00 lower prices in the northern market. Activity in the Southern Plains has remained light.
Cash hog index tops 2023 high... The CME lean hog index topped the 2023 peak at $106.00, rising to the highest level since August 2022. The latest quote for June 17 rose another $1.39 to $106.34.
Holiday demand news... Algeria tendered to buy up to 240,000 MT of optional origin corn after passing on a similar tender.
Today’s reports
- 7:30 a.m. Weekly Export Sales — FAS
- 10:00 a.m. Food Expenditure Series — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Cattle on Feed — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Milk Production — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Peanut Prices — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Slaughter Weekly — NASS