Good morning!
Followthrough buying in grains overnight... Corn, soybeans and the winter wheat markets extended Wednesday’s strong gains during overnight trade, while spring wheat pulled back. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 3 to 5 cents higher, soybeans are 4 to 5 cents higher, winter wheat markets are 1 to 2 cents higher and spring wheat is mostly 2 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is trading just above unchanged and front-month crude oil futures are modestly lower.
Trump to address Iowa farmers today... President Donald Trump is expected to tell Iowa farmers that he has “great news” for them, highlighting what he describes as significant achievements in trade policy and support for agriculture during today’s visit to the Iowa State Fairgrounds. Trump has teased that his remarks will include “some of the GREAT things I’ve already done on Trade, especially as it relates to Farmers,” promising that attendees “are going to be very happy with what I say.” His speech, which marks the kickoff of America’s 250th anniversary celebrations, is also anticipated to feature: Announcements of new trade initiatives or agreements aimed at benefiting U.S. farmers; promotion of his administration’s tax and policy proposals, including the extension of tax cuts and regulatory reforms that he claims have helped farmers and small businesses; and a defense of his budget and healthcare proposals, which have sparked controversy over potential Medicaid reforms and changes to social services. USDA Secretary Brook Rollins will accompany Trump and it’s possible she could make an announcement on the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program effort under USDA’s plan that cleared the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) review this week. County FSA offices got training on the disaster aid earlier this week. Rollins could also announce another action cleared by OMB July 2 in a final rule on Removal of Unconstitutional Preferences Based on Race and Sex in Response to Court Ruling.
House advances Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill in pivotal pre-holiday vote... After marathon backroom negotiations, the House voted early Thursday to advance Trump’s signature “One Big Beautiful Bill” to a final vote — bringing Trump to the threshold of a major legislative victory by his July 4 deadline. The bill delivers trillions in tax cuts, enacts the first major federal spending reductions in decades, and overhauls programs like Medicaid and food stamps, dramatically shrinking the scope of the federal government. While debate on the bill is ongoing, Thursday’s procedural win signals that Trump is close to achieving the legislative breakthrough he has been pushing for ahead of Independence Day. The vote is also a key victory for House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who managed deep divisions within the GOP caucus. Trump, pressing for party unity, used social media to urge Republicans to support the bill despite internal disagreements.
July 4 holiday schedule... Grain and livestock markets will observe normal trading hours today ahead of the holiday weekend. All markets and government offices are closed on Friday, July 4. Grains resume trade with the overnight session at 7:00 p.m. CT on Sunday, July 6. Livestock markets reopen at 8:30 a.m. CT on Monday, July 7. Pro Farmer wishes everyone a happy and safe holiday weekend.
Weekly Export Sales Report out this morning... For the week ended June 26, traders expect:
| 2024-25 expectations (in MT) | 2024-25 last week | 2025-26 expectations (in MT) | 2025-26 last week | |
| Corn | 400,000-1,000,000 | 741,226 | 500,000-900,000 | 305,506 |
| Wheat | NA | NA | 200,000-600,000 | 255,208 |
| Soybeans | 300,000-700,000 | 402,931 | 0-300,000 | 156,153 |
| Soymeal | 100,000-400,000 | 93,945 | 0-250,000 | 166,129 |
| Soyoil | (10,000)-16,000 | 4,030 | 0-10,000 | (7) |
China makes big purchases of Ukrainian barley... Chinese companies have contracted to buy up to 700,000 MT of the 2025 Ukrainian barley crop, adding to strong demand that has increased prices by as much as $8 a ton this week alone, Reuters reported. “We are currently leveraging our premium position as a supplier of barley to China, and China is willing to pay $240 per ton cost, insurance and freight (CIF), the equivalent to $203 free on board (FOB) Odessa and $193 carriage paid to (CPT),” analyst Barva Invest said in a report late on Wednesday. “According to market estimates, 8-12 Panamax vessels were sold. This means that China alone purchased 500,000 to 700,000 tons of Ukrainian barley – at least a quarter of our export potential.”
Bunge finally completes merger with Viterra... Bunge Global said it officially closed a long-delayed deal to merge with Glencore-backed Viterra on Wednesday, two years after announcing the $34 billion mega-deal. The merger creates a global crop trading and processing giant that is poised to rival agribusiness giants Archer-Daniels-Midland and Cargil.
Another slowdown in jobs growth expected for June... Economists polled by Reuters expect the Labor Department to report non-farm payrolls grew 110,000 in June. That would be down from 139,000 jobs added in May and the third straight monthly decline. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 4.3%, the highest since July 2024.
Trump demands Powell resign amid congressional scrutiny... Trump on Wednesday publicly called for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to resign, intensifying his ongoing attacks on the central bank chief. The demand came shortly after Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director Bill Pulte urged Congress to investigate Powell for allegedly providing “deceptive” testimony to the Senate Banking Committee regarding costly renovations at the Fed’s Washington headquarters. House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) told Bloomberg that lawmakers would review calls to investigate Powell. Trump, who appointed Powell in 2017, has repeatedly criticized him over the Fed’s interest rate policy and suggested he should be fired. Meanwhile, in a Fox Business interview, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pointed to the recent dip in two-year Treasury yields — now at 3.57%, below the Fed’s overnight (fed funds) rate of 4.33% — as a clear market signal the Fed should consider lowering rates.
Cash cattle trade lower... Cash cattle started trading at mostly $1.00 to $2.00 lower prices in both the Southern Plains and northern market on Wednesday. Additional trade around these levels is likely today as packers and feedlots look to wrap up negotiations ahead of the long holiday weekend.
Cash hog fundamentals continue pullback... The CME lean hog index is down another 77 cents to $110.22 as of July 1, the third straight daily decline. Pork cutout fell another $1.55 to $110.75 on Wednesday, pressured by sharp losses in primal butts, ribs and bellies.
Overnight demand news... Jordan tendered to buy up to 120,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat. Tunisia tendered to buy 25,000 MT of optional origin corn.
Today’s reports
- 7:30 a.m. Weekly Export Sales — FAS
- 7:30 a.m. Employment Situation — BLS
- 2:00 p.m. Dairy Products — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Peanut Prices — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Slaughter Weekly — NASS